The United States Men’s National Team’s 4-1 win over Paraguay has plenty of American soccer fans believing the impossible can happen. That impossible is winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. And it isn’t just USMNT fans. Plenty of average Americans, assuming they’re even aware the World Cup is happening, probably think the United States can win the whole thing.
While the tournament opener was an impressive victory, featuring two goals from birthright American citizen Folarin Balogun, it really shouldn’t have come as a shock. In fact, going unbeaten in Group D shouldn’t surprise anyone either, if it happens.
The USMNT’s group should give everyone confidence that the Yanks can reach the Round of 32 and perhaps even beyond. It’s almost as if the soccer gods, or Gianni Infantino, conspired to hand the Americans an easy draw. Others will argue the watered-down 48-team tournament allows plenty of mid-level national teams, and even some lower-tier teams, to qualify for the knockout rounds. Football for everyone, right?
FIFA knows that if the USMNT fails to get out of the group stage, the American public will quickly lose interest. At least many of those Americans who are watching. It will also lead plenty of sports media pundits who know nothing about soccer to criticize the team. I remember radio sports shock jock Colin Cowherd doing it after the 2006 tournament despite having no knowledge of soccer. The same is likely true for Canada and Mexico, although less so for El Tri. Fortunately for U.S. Soccer, the possibility of missing the Round of 32 seems slim after the 4-1 win over Paraguay.
Balogun, a former Arsenal player now playing for Monaco, scored two excellent goals after a Paraguay own goal opened the scoring. Gio Reyna rounded out the scoring, having apparently decided not to complain to his mother about playing time like he did in Qatar. If that didn’t show just how wrong the pay-for-play soccer model creates entitled players, I don’t know what does.
Australia is up next for the USMNT before a final Group D game against Turkey, and neither opponent should send the Yanks home early. Or should I say, remain home early? The Americans’ plus-three goal difference could prove huge when it comes to making the next phase.
Australia and Turkey will certainly provide stronger opposition than Paraguay, at least on paper. But as we know, football isn’t played on paper and all of those clichés. Australia will offer a level of athleticism not too different from that of the Americans themselves. The Aussies beat Turkey 2-0 with goals on either side of halftime. It was a defensive masterclass paired with offensive precision. Australia was outshot 28-8 and had just 37% possession, yet still pulled out the win.
Turkey, meanwhile, could arrive at the final group game with zero points and nothing left to play for but pride. And let’s be clear, any team playing the USA right now is playing for pride. The rest of the world wants to see the Americans beaten. England has handed over that crown to the Yanks. There was a time when everyone wanted England humbled. Now, it’s America. In the immortal words of the legendary Iron Sheik, “I break your back, make you humble!”
Then again, Turkey should get maximum points against Paraguay, setting up a potential winner-take-all match against the Yanks.
USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino masterminded the opening-game victory. His tactics against Paraguay were spot on. The Americans pressed relentlessly and worked their socks off. It worked brilliantly against Paraguay and should continue to work against Australia and Turkey, as long as the Yanks can keep their energy levels up. Of course, football now has four quarters, so those three-minute breaks should help with recovery, right?
The problem is that the USMNT still struggles against the world’s elite teams. The 2-1 loss to Germany in the final friendly before the World Cup was a reminder that the United States still lacks genuine world-class talent. But then again, history tells us the Americans don’t necessarily need a squad full of superstars.
I was awake in the middle of the night in 2002 as a university student watching the USA beat Mexico in the Round of 16 before narrowly losing to Germany in the quarterfinals. Yes, there were some great players, or players who became great after the tournament. Yet none of those players attracted interest from the world’s biggest clubs.
I had my eyes glued to the television in South Africa when Landon Donovan’s stoppage-time goal against Algeria sent the Americans into the knockout rounds. That remains one of my all-time favorite football memories.
Where were you? Were you a fan then? Did you follow this team? Can you remember July 4, 1994, when Tab Ramos had his face caved in by Leonardo? I do.
I’ve seen these moments for the USMNT before. I’ve seen the highs and the lows. And many times, I’ve seen the middle ground, which is where, as a soccer-playing nation, the United States typically resides.
If the USMNT is to make a deep run in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it won’t be because it possesses elite players in the sense of having stars at Real Madrid, Manchester City, or Bayern Munich. It will be down to dogged effort and a manager capable of producing a game plan that outsmarts superior opponents.
Against Paraguay, Pochettino got everything right. The USMNT kept 63% possession, outshot Paraguay 17-8, and allowed just two shots on target. The Yanks also completed more passes than Paraguay, 577-282. If you’re a stathead obsessed with xG, the USMNT posted an xG of just 1.42. That means the Americans overachieved in the final scoreline.
As the tournament progresses, fatigue, weather, and travel will take their toll on teams, especially those with thinner benches. France, Germany, England, the Netherlands, and Spain have quality in reserve. Does the USMNT have enough players on the bench capable of changing a game? That’s the concern as the competition becomes more difficult.
Against stronger nations, teams with players accustomed to facing high presses every week, the USMNT could be passed through with alarming ease. That’s been the story before, and it could be the story again. These players have also experienced high-pressure situations in football, something many USMNT players lack.
If the United States loses to Australia on Friday, a lot of the air will come out of the balloon that is U.S. Soccer right now. A draw should be enough to see the team advance as one of the best third-place finishers. A win would almost certainly guarantee a place in the Round of 32.
For all the optimism after dismantling Paraguay, some perspective is required. The USMNT did exactly what it was supposed to do against the South Americans. The real test comes later, and that’s where American soccer usually discovers exactly where it stands in the context of world football.
Yes, the USMNT has a chance to go deep into the tournament. However, winning the World Cup? That still seems a bit far-fetched. In the words of the Iron Sheik, “don’t be a jabroni.”
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