A certain uneasiness hung in the air as Oregon began their game against Purdue last Friday night, at least for the visiting team. On the other side, the people of West Lafayette excitedly hung onto the hope of an unlikely, illogical, but still possible upset of one of the best teams in the entire country. The Ducks had already overcome the big test of Ohio State the previous weekend. They were heading right into “trap game” territory, especially on the road, at night, against a team and fanbase ready to take advantage of any underestimation from the visiting titans. Too many teams in a similar position have let their guard down expecting an easy win and have been caught sleeping by a lesser but more motivated squad. Safe to say, that was not the case for the Ducks Friday. As their dominance began early and ended in a 35-0 shutout, Eugene and the surrounding area heard a collective sigh.
While the journey did not come without a couple of thrills and close calls, Oregon’s first half of the season was mostly defined by taking care of business, culminating in a stunning statement win against Ohio State. With Purdue and likely Maryland as exceptions, the average level of competition becomes much higher in the second half. It will require Dan Lanning and co. to maintain momentum as programs vying for a big win will give them their all. The stretch starts with Illinois at 12:30 PM on Saturday. It will continue when Oregon visits Michigan next weekend, visits a wintery Wisconsin after that, and finally hosts Washington to end the season in a classic old Pac-12 matchup. Currently, it seems unlikely Oregon will drop more than one or two of those games as they sit in prime contention for a high college football playoff seed, but this is no time to take the foot off the gas.
Illinois has also had an excellent start to the season, currently ranking fourth in the Big Ten and #20 in the country and boasting an impressive 6-1 record with a big win over Nebraska and another against a ranked opponent in Michigan last weekend. While it wasn’t a runaway victory, Illinois beat the reigning college football champs 21-7, holding the Wolverines to zero points in the second half. Junior starting quarterback Luke Altmeyer didn’t have his best game, only throwing for 80 yards and a single touchdown, but he added 48 yards on the ground and a rushing TD. Overall, though, his season has been excellent. He led the Big Ten with 15 passing touchdowns to just one interception and helping establish The Fighting Illini as a dark horse contender in a powerhouse-laden conference. Oregon will be their hardest test so far, although that might be discounting Penn State, and dealing with the thunderous and hostile atmosphere of Autzen stadium will show what level this team can rise or fall to.
For the Ducks, attention has been focused on progressing key injured players through rejoining the team as competition becomes more difficult. Senior defensive end Jordan Burch has been rehabbing from a noncontact lower-body injury suffered in practice a couple of weeks ago and was questionable against Ohio State and then out for Purdue. Senior tight end Terrance Ferguson had his appendix removed before Oregon headed to West Lafayette and was the most recent addition to the injury list. Lanning was evasive when asked about their availability at practice early this week, saying evaluation would continue throughout the week and availability would be in the air for the time being. No update of substance on offensive lineman Matthew Bedford, whose likelihood to play this season becomes less and less each passing week, even though Oregon could use his talent and skill on their line after Bedford transferred from a starting role at Indiana in the offseason.
ESPN currently has Oregon favored by -22 points and has set the over/under at 54.5 points. Up to this point, Oregon has not showcased an explosive ability to score per se, but it has maintained consistent production, putting up 30+ points in all but one of its games this season. There is no reason to expect this trend to end this weekend, as Illinois is ranked 51st in total defense, and the Ducks have risen to right outside of the top 20 offensively. Conversely, while Illinois has a talented quarterback who has been able to feast on lesser opponents, the Fighting’s 92nd-ranked total offense should struggle against a stout Oregon unit. Expect Oregon to win slightly more than the predicted spread, but the game will go under in total points.
Prediction: Oregon W, 38-14
