Last week, our college football prediction system (savvygameline.com) was 67-17 in predicting winners. For the season, our Index is 81% accurate (74-17) in choosing winners compared to 71% by the betting lines, and it is three games better in predicting spreads and four games better in defining over/unders.
Another hefty schedule is on tap this week, with 82 games involving FBS teams. Leading the way is #12 Oregon (1-0) at #5 Ohio State (1-0) in a 9 a.m. PDT kickoff. OSU is seven points better on our Index.
Ordinarily, I would expect Ohio State to test the Ducks’ inefficient short pass defense, but the Buckeyes have two receivers and a tight end who are questionable for Saturday’s game. However, the long ball is still there, with Chris Olave averaging 29 yards per catch and quarterback C.J. Stroud can expect time to throw long since Oregon may not have elite pressure guys Kayvon Thibodeaux or Dru Mathis.
Oregon will do some early testing of Ohio State’s rush defense since the Buckeyes were less than impressive in giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Minnesota last Saturday.
The second-best game this week is Iowa at Iowa State. The betting public is banking on Iowa State to upend the Hawkeyes, but our system sees a 26-21 advantage for Iowa.
It’s rather funny to see oddsmakers choosing Colorado State over visiting Vanderbilt. But then, I find it odd that any national expert would even bother since both of these teams were creamed by FCS opponents last week.
We predicted Colorado State’s loss to South Dakota State. What we didn’t see coming was the total devastation the Jackrabbits inflicted on the Rams. Before the subs came in, SDSU was up 35-10 and running the ball at seven yards per carry against a front seven that Colorado State coach Steve Addazio had promised was the best in the Mountain West.
So much for BragAddazio.
Although betting lines favor CSU by seven, our Index says it will be Vanderbilt, 32-21.
Our system also sees Buffalo upsetting Nebraska and Rice upsetting Houston.
To see all of our predictions and national rankings, please visit us at Savvygameline.com.
Among our best predictions last week were:
Utah 40, Weber State 14
[the final was 40-17]
Mississippi 43, Louisville 28
[the final was 43-24]
North Texas 41, Northwestern State 14
[the final was 44-14]
TCU 44, Duquesne 7
[the final was 45-3]
Eastern Washington (FCS) 31, UNLV [FBS] 30 [upset]
[the final was 35-33]
Our worst call was predicting Ohio over Syracuse by 14, only to go the other way by 20. Although that was the worst, I am also rather impressed with Savvy missing Washington’s loss to Montana of the FCS by a 33 point reversal and Stanford’s loss to Kansas State by 25.
This week in the PAC-12 . . .
San Diego State (1-0) 30
Arizona (0-1) 21
Oddsmakers favor Arizona by one.
Arizona State (1-0) 44
UNLV (0-1) 14
Oddsmakers say ASU by 32.5
TCU (1-0) 31
California (0-1) 14
Oddmakers limit this to a 10.5 spread.
Texas A&M (1-0) 34
Colorado (1-0) 21
Oddsmakers love A&M and favor the Aggies by 17.
Ohio State (1-0) 37
Oregon (1-0) 30
Oddsmakers say the margin is 14.5.
Oregon State (0-1) 35
Hawai’i (1-1) 32
Oddsmakers see Oregon State by 11.
USC (1-0) 32
Stanford (0-1) 17
Oddsmakers [and I]say 17.5.
Utah (1-0) 28
BYU (1-0) 27
Oddsmakers say Utah by 7. I personally think Utah by 14+.
Michigan (1-0) 28
Washington (0-1) 21
Odd that the oddsmakers say only 6.5.
Washington St. (0-1) 46
Portland State (0-1) 17
No betting line for this one, but I suspect it will be closer.