Sixth-ranked Oklahoma (5-0) visits ninth-ranked Texas (4-1) in the annual Red River Showdown. Our system sees OU as a 48-35 favorite, but there are several reasons to think the margin will be greater
Let’s start with the Sooner passing attack. It is led by Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts who is hitting more than 73% of his targets and has thrown interceptions at a rate of less than two percent. And, those aren’t just ordinary throws—no, sir. Hurts’ average distance per attempt is 14.5 yards!
You might be saying, yes, but the Texas pass defense is also good.
Indeed it is; except that right now, the Longhorns have six defensive backs on the hobble.
And Longhorn fans, it won’t be any easier to stop the run since the Sooners average 288 yards per game at a clip of 7.9 yards per attempt.
Our analysis favors Oklahoma by 13; Vegas favors the Sooners by just 11. I think both are too conservative and this is a three-touchdown win for the Sooners.
Tenth-ranked Florida (6-0) tries to make it two top-ten upset wins in a row as the Gators venture to #5 LSU (5-0). Our analysis favors Florida by four but cautions that while both of these teams have done enough to deserve top-ten rankings, neither has earned the kind of metrics with us to stay there. We are projecting that both will show a significant decline before the end of the month.
Seventh-ranked Penn State (5-0) is projected 34-28 over 14th ranked Iowa (4-1) while 11th ranked Wisconsin (5-0) won’t even have to leave home to pummel 22nd-ranked Michigan State (4-2). The Badgers are favored by us by more than two touchdowns. Vegas shows the betting line for points is 40.5, but our system solidly projects the total points will be well over that.
Our Index system is 310-77 (81%) in predicting games this season.
In the PAC-12 . . .
PAC-12-leader, #12 Oregon (4-1), will have no problem with Colorado (3-2) if the Ducks take advantage of the Buffs’ secondary. Our projections favor the Ducks 37-20, but if UO coaches persist in slamming running backs into defensive walls, then this game becomes a primary candidate for upset.
The Ducks also need to be wary of Colorado’s quarterback Steven Montez who has always had ability but lacked composure. This year he has both and he is a dynamic weapon who can deliver a knockout punch in any fourth quarter that has a spread of two touchdowns or less.
Seventeenth-ranked Utah (4-1) is favored 40-21 against Oregon State (2-3), but as we’ve seen all season, OSU’s performance trends are among the best in the nation and the Beavers are in our top ten for teams most-likely to post an upset. The angle of OSU’s performance trends are not only all positive since week one but they’ve been angling upward at a steeper rate with each game.
Utah has been up one week and down the next and this is the week for the Utes to be down. The game will be played in Corvallis, which adds to the excitement of a potential upset.
Washington State’s (3-2) trends are in steep—and getting steeper—nosedives, the kind that suggest the Cougars are likely to finish with a losing record. Those losses begin this week in Tempe as the Cougars face Arizona State (4-1).
What happens in the Palouse won’t be pretty but it certainly promises to be entertaining—unless you’re a Cougar fan.
Twentieth-ranked Washington (4-2) has also been trend-fading in our Index every week and those trends are beginning to compound. Even so, the Huskies are 37-24 favorites over Arizona (4-1) in the desert.
To see all of our predictions for more than fifty FBS games, check us out here.
