The Portland Trail Blazers are on pace to win 70 games this season.
Yes, 70 wins.
Ahead of Friday’s contest against the Los Angeles Lakers, Portland sits atop the Western Conference standings with a 6-1 record, a perfect 5-0 mark on the road and a winning percentage that would translate to 70 victories over an 82-game season.
For perspective, only two teams in NBA history have ever won 70 games. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls won 72, and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors won a record 73.
So, are the Trail Blazers about to join that exclusive company?
Probably not.
But dismissing Portland’s start as an early-season fluke would also be misguided. There are real reasons to believe this team is better than expected, even if a 70-win pace is obviously unsustainable.
So far this season, Portland is averaging 121.9 points per game, the highest mark in the NBA. That’s a remarkable feat for a team that entered with questions about its crowded backcourt, shooting, and offensive fit.
From the three-point line, the Blazers are shooting 35.5 percent, ranking 11th. That’s solid, but hardly an outrageous percentage destined to fall back to Earth.
It helps that they’re generating quality looks elsewhere. Portland is shooting 58.8 percent on two-pointers, third in the league, while averaging 31.1 free-throw attempts, also third. Add 44.2 three-point attempts and 15.4 makes per game, both ranking fourth, and there’s plenty to like about the offensive formula.
What’s also been encouraging is the good old-fashioned eye test. Damian Lillard creates shooting gravity defenses have to respect. Deni Avdija attacks the paint, creates for teammates, and draws fouls. Jrue Holiday has been reliable as ever as both a shooter and creator. And Donovan Clingan provides a strong interior presence while suddenly shooting 46.7 percent from three on 2.1 attempts per game.
Clingan’s shooting might be the least sustainable part of that equation, but we predicted a leap from the big man before the season, including his outside shooting, and he’s lived up to those expectations.
Then, of course, there’s Ja Morant. Portland’s offseason gamble on the star guard was always going to influence this team’s ceiling. His ability to pressure defenses off the dribble adds another dimension to an already versatile offense, but his shaky shooting and spotty injury history also came with the 27-year-old.
Out of the gate, Morant looked comfortable before sustaining a hamstring injury. The added good news is that the Blazers have continued winning, despite Morant being sidelined, with their offensive versatility. Wednesday’s 132-119 win over Phoenix showcased that.
Lillard scored 25 points in the game, while Clingan added 24 points and 11 rebounds, and Avdija finished with 21 points and 12 assists.
Holiday also chipped in 15 points off the bench, shooting 5-of-9 from three.
Still, there are warning signs.
Maintaining nearly 59 percent shooting on two-pointers won’t be easy for a team that was middle of the pack last season. Opponents will adjust, particularly by limiting transition opportunities and protecting the paint, forcing Portland to prove its three-point chops deep into the campaign.
The Blazers also entered Wednesday shooting just 74.0 percent from the free-throw line, ranking 27th. Even Lillard, a career 89.8 percent shooter, is hitting just 82.2 percent—the worst mark of his career.
Then there’s the bigger concern: depth and durability.
Morant’s hamstring injury is already testing the guard rotation, while Shaedon Sharpe remains sidelined following knee surgery.
Robert Williams III has been reliable, but his injury history is concerning, especially without another dependable backup center.
Vit Krejci’s lower-leg fracture against Phoenix is unfortunate, but the bigger picture is that it exposes how thin the wing rotation really is. Does Portland shorten its bench with Krejci out? Could Jayson Kent suddenly find himself playing meaningful minutes?
Those questions become more pressing with the schedule ahead. Portland faces the Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, and Oklahoma City Thunder twice before a brief respite against Sacramento. Then come back-to-back games against Minnesota, who, despite missing Anthony Edwards, are still considered a West contender.
It’s a daunting stretch, but the Blazers have proved they can beat quality opponents on the road. Monday’s 118-110 victory in Denver was encouraging, with Avdija scoring 28 points and Clingan posting 17 points, 18 rebounds, and four blocks against Nikola Jokić.
Ultimately, though, expecting an 85.7 percent winning percentage to continue is unrealistic. Even 50 wins would require Portland to go 44-31 over its remaining 75 games, a far more reasonable 58.7 percent winning percentage.
So that’s where the conversation should be heading. Whether Portland has established itself as a legitimate 50-win team capable of avoiding the play-in tournament, or if an early hot streak turns out to be just that before reality hits
Seven games won’t answer that definitively, but they’ve provided more reasons for optimism than skepticism.
And for a franchise that entered the season surrounded by uncertainty, that’s a notable accomplishment, and one that makes you feel good about what’s still to come.
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