A mere season ago, a matchup between these two programs would’ve been a true clash of the titans, whose result could reshape the national title conversation. At this time last year, Michigan was nearing the end of a dominant, undefeated campaign, and Oregon was still very much in the playoff race, as their sole loss was to an excellent Washington squad. Fast forward to now, nearing the end of a wildly unpredictable 2024 season, and the immediate futures for these teams look drastically different. The Ducks are red hot and rolling at the moment, the undisputed number one team in the country with a laser focus on keeping that spot firmly in their possession for the home stretch. On the other hand, the Wolverines are experiencing quite the championship hangover, limping into this game with a paltry 5-3 record, with hopes of a shot at repeating already long gone.
Last weekend Oregon readied to face a seemingly solid challenger in #20 ranked Illinois, yet the game was effectively over by the half after the Ducks jumped out to a 35-3 lead and didn’t relinquish it till time ran out. Dillon Gabriel continued to push himself into a Heisman conversation that has been dominated up to this point by Travis Hunter (Colorado) and Ashton Jeanty (Boise State). Gabriel now leads the Big Ten in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, and yards per game, as well as contributing nearly 100 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground himself. It might prove impossible to overcome the narrative and individual accomplishments of Hunter and Jeanty at season’s end, but being the most efficient, productive quarterback in the conference while leading Oregon to a (potentially) loss-less season would be a strong argument for Gabriel.
Funnily enough, a week before Illinois fell completely flat against Oregon, they gave Michigan their third loss of the season in an embarrassing offensive showing by the Wolverines. However, Sherrone Moore and company were able to return to the safety of The Big House last Saturday and bounce back with a close victory against their in-state rivals, Michigan State. Through eight games, Michigan has rotated between starting three different quarterbacks, failing to find a suitable replacement for departing star J.J. McCarthy in any of them, yet without a better option till the offseason. Jack Tuttle was benched after the Illinois game, and Davis Warren was inserted into the role against Michigan State, throwing for a middling 123 yards and one touchdown. During all this, Alex Orji, who was the starting QB to begin the year, has basically transitioned into a running back, leading the team in rushing yards against MSU with 64 and a touchdown. It’s a confounding problem, to be sure, one not needed by a first-year head coach already dealing with talent departures across the roster.
On the injury front, Oregon looks to be in luck regarding returning impact players this weekend. Defensive lineman Jordan Burch, who is having an excellent season with five sacks and seven tackles for loss, has missed the past three games after sustaining a lower body, non-contact injury in practice in early October. Starting tight end Terrance Ferguson had his appendix removed a couple of weeks ago and has missed the last two games for the Ducks. Both returned to practice on Monday, and when asked, Dan Lanning only said, “We will keep our player’s best interest in mind as we prepare for this game” (via SI). An unsurprising answer from the Oregon head coach, someone who likes to play his cards close to his chest and not give hope of a return until absolutely certain. For Michigan State, their injury news skews negative as they might play without their star cornerback, Will Johnson, on Saturday. Johnson has only missed one game so far but looks to be still rehabbing a lower-leg injury he suffered in the first quarter vs. Illinois. Moore was similarly wishy-washy when asked for an update, saying, “he’ll for sure [play again]this season. We’ll see how it works out this week and see what he can do” (via SI).
ESPN currently has Oregon favored by -14.5 points on the road, and the over-under is set at 45.5 points. The biggest hurdle the Ducks will have to face is the pure atmosphere of The Big House and the accompanying 100,000+ fans dying to see their team pull off a massive upset. On a purely team quality level, Oregon should not have much to worry about. This year’s Wolverines are not in the top 50 in the nation in either rushing or passing offense and are absurdly low in total offense rankings at #124. The Duck’s defense will give them no reprieve on that end, and the offense should be able to maintain its spectacular momentum, especially if Gabriel keeps steering the ship with such poised nearly mistake-free football. Expect the final margin of victory to be more than 14.5, but the total score to go under 45.5.
Prediction: Oregon W, 31-10
