There are 55 games on tap for FBS teams and we have predictions for all of them! Last week, our system was 47-11 in game forecasts and now stands 236-48 (83%) for the season.
Only one game involving ranked teams is on the calendar for this weekend as #20 Virginia (4-0) travels to #12 Notre Dame (2-1). Notre Dame is favored 33-24 after playing a stronger schedule, taking better care of the ball, and getting this one at home. Also, keep an eye on Virginia because our metrics show a slow erosion in most of the significant rating previsors that portend future success.
Top-ranked Alabama (4-0) is a 46-21 favorite at home over unranked Mississippi (2-2).
Second-ranked Clemson (4-0) will be 23 points too much for North Carolina (2-2), a team that is mighty in spirit but not so much in the flesh.
Number three Georgia and #4 LSU have the week off.
Fifth-ranked Oklahoma (3-0) should be at least 15 points better at home than unranked Texas Tech (2-1).
In the PAC-12 . . .
Arizona (2-1) is a 36-33 pick over UCLA (1-3) but that prediction comes with a very high upset alert because the Wildcats are composite-ranked 104th for game disciplines in our analytics. We anticipated UCLA would begin to rise in the middle of Chip Kelly’s second season and that is what appears to be happening. If current trends continue, UCLA is a good bet to win four more games in 2019.
California (4-0) is a one-point favorite at home against Arizona State (3-1). Even with a win, the Bears are not likely to reach our top 25 despite being ranked just about every place else. Cal’s critical metrics point to decline and suggest the Bears will lose four of their next seven games.
Stanford (1-3) visits the Oregon State Beavers (1-2) in a match-up of what seems to be the two bottom-most teams in the North Division. Although Stanford has a stronger roster, this game is not a “lock” for the Cardinal because the Beavers have posted positive and expanding trend lines every week and they also have the nation’s 11th-best rushing attack (yards/carry) while Stanford is still searching for an offensive identity and didn’t score a single touchdown last week against Oregon.
For fans of the #24 Washington State (3-1) at Utah (3-1) game, we have a warning: Expect to be frustrated. We’ve asked our system to project penalties and the results aren’t pretty. Between the two, you can expect at least 19 penalties for more than 220 yards. When the flag fest finally ends, the Utes should be on top 28-27.
We had two concerns for the #16 Washington Huskies (3-1) in the preseason: 1) Would Jacob Eason be as good as a senior at Washington as he was as a freshman at Georgia? And, 2) How long will it take for the defensive units to merge? Both have solidified early and that may mean it is too late to catch Washington. The Huskies should continue to climb with a 36-30 win in Seattle over resurgent USC (3-1).
Thirteenth-ranked Oregon (3-1) and Colorado (3-1) have the week off.
For a complete look at all of our game predictions and comments, click here.
