Wise is the bettor who consults Nick’s No-Nonsense Betting Tips before logging on to his sportsbook.
I may not always be perfect, but if you’ve followed my advice in the past, you’re money ahead.
Every Friday in this space throughout the 2024 college football season, I give you my straight-up picks for games involving SuperWest teams.
For those who don’t know, that includes all the former Pac-12 teams, the Mountain West, plus BYU.
On rare occasions, when I blow a pick (or two), I evaluate my mistakes the following week, analyzing where I may have gone wrong.
Last week, I went an impressive 8-2. So, where did I go wrong?
In short, I put too much faith in Stanford and not enough in Arizona State. Otherwise, golden.
On the season, I’m still a solid 43-17, good for 72 percent.
I fully expect to be basking in the glory of success again this week—and you should, too.
As always, my selections include incredibly accurate game scores and just enough commentary to keep me from eating too many olives in the South Shore District of Seattle.
The jar is almost empty, so let’s get on with the picks!
——————
No. 16 Utah at Arizona State
Friday, October 11
7:30 pm, PT, ESPN
Arizona State’s game-clinching touchdown last Saturday is an indication of massive growth.
The Sun Devils could’ve easily lost that game against Kansas, but instead, they have a chance to crack the top 25 with a win over Utah.
If ASU is to hang around with the Utes this Friday, it will need its offensive line to step up. Utah enters this matchup with the 32nd-ranked rushing defense in the nation, which could disrupt ASU’s run-first offense.
It seems unlikely that the U of U will lose two games in a row. Kyle Whittingham proved he could win with a backup quarterback in Isaac Wilson, but Cameron Rising is back.
He usually goes by Cam. With Rising back in the lineup, Utah should have enough confidence to get this one done.
If Arizona State finds a way to win this one, they’re really for real. But it doesn’t matter; Whittingham won’t lose two in a row.
“I am a Utah Man, and I live across the green.”
Utah 31, Arizona State 17
——————
Washington at Iowa
Saturday, October 12
9:00 am PT, FOX
That was a Big win for Washington last week. But if the Huskies want to make a statement in the Conference of Ten, well, they need to start putting W’s on a candy necklace.
The biggest key for the Dawgs in this contest is stopping Iowa’s rushing attack. The Hawkeyes feature a dominant offensive line and one of the best statistical backs in the nation, Kaleb Johnson.
Flipping the script, Iowa may think of UW as a cute West Coast team, but that will quickly stop when they meet Jonah Coleman. Coleman is one of the most underappreciated backs in the nation and cannot be brought down by one man.
Complimenting him is Will Rogers, who finally got the win he needed to solidify himself on Montlake. Rogers and wideout Denzel Boston have found an early season rhythm with 492 yards and eight touchdowns.
Hawkeyes signal caller Cade McNamara must find a rhythm with anyone; he won’t.
Dawgs get a Big road victory.
Washington 28, Iowa 14
——————
No. 4 Penn State at USC
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm, CBS
This might be oversimplifying things, but is USC ready for Penn State after the loss at Minnesota?
The Trojans season has been weird through their first five games, but a defeat this week leaves them 3-3, and that’s not a strong statement in their inaugural Big Ten season.
The key for SC in this one is Miller Moss. Moss needs to get the ball to a wide variety of targets to keep Penn State’s defense on the field.
The Nittany Lions’ 17th-best rushing offense should be able to run all over USC, particularly with the injury to Mason Cobb.
The Trojans also need to capitalize on their red zone opportunities. The Lions’ offense isn’t a world-beater, but they’ll put up enough points to keep SC honest.
They feature a balanced attack led by Drew Allar, a dual-headed rushing attack, and three receivers with more than 200 yards each.
The Trojans wanted to be in the Big Ten. Well, have fun.
Penn State in a whiteout.
Penn State 27, USC 24
——————
Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm PT, NBC
How exactly did Stanford get here?
It feels like yesterday that the David Shaw Cardinal were perennial contenders in the Pac-12. But now, Stanford is a bottom-tier team in the ACC. Their performance against Virginia Tech made that clear.
The Cardinal defense’s play was the most concerning aspect of the loss. Stanford’s stopper unit started the season decently, most notably against Syracuse, but they’ve allowed 30-plus points in their last two outings.
On offense, the Cardinal basically relies on wideout Elic Ayomanor. They really need their quarterback, Ashton Daniels, to boss up.
Notre Dame enters this game well-rested after a close victory over a ranked Louisville squad. The Fighting Irish boast the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring defense, which should scare Stanford.
ND is led by signal caller Riley Leonard, who’s dangerous as a dual-threat option. But a single-threat option is probably enough to wax the Cardinal.
Irish in a barn-whoopin.
Notre Dame 45, Stanfrod 14
——————
Cal at No. 22 Pitt
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm PT, ESPN
I’m not sure what’s worse: California blowing a 25-point lead against Miami or the ACC officials.
This could be the most important game of the Justin Wilcox era. They gotta forget the last one because they’re a talented team with the potential to win ten games. But a loss here, and they could end up with their fourth losing season in a row. Real shit. For
Cal, to be successful, they need to lean on Fernando Mendoza. He would probably benefit from a few quick hitters to Jack Endries to calm his stomach early.
Flipping O’s, Pittsburgh enters this contest with the sixth-ranked passing offense nationally. They’re led by Eli Holstein, who’s thrown for 1,567 yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s also added 342 yards and three touchdowns with his legs.
Konata Mumpfield leads the Panthers with 426 yards receiving and three tuddy’s.
I felt superbad for Cal last week and don’t want to feel that way again.
The Golden Bears get it done in the Northeast.
California 38, Pitt 21
——————
Arizona at No. 14 BYU
Saturday, October 12
1:00 pm PT, FOX
Arizona and BYU are similar programs, hopefully.
The Cougars had a tough season in their first year in the Big 12, finishing 2-7 in the conference. BYU found its rhythm in year two with huge wins against Baylor and Kansas State.
The Cougs have looked like a potential spoiler in the Big 12, led by their stout defense. They’re only allowing 16 points per outing.
Another key for BYU is quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who’s doing just enough to scrape by. Retzlaff has proven to be a reliable leader.
The Wildcats gotta figure out some consistency on their offense line. The combination of Noah Fifita and Tetaiora McMillan is as legit as any combo when given time. McMillan is nasty.
Another key factor in this contest is the loss of defensive back Treydan Stukes. That’s gonna hurt AZ.
This should open up things for Chase Roberts. It’ll also open up things for BYU.
They’ll kinda party in Provo.
BYU 31, Arizona 24
——————
Washington State at Fresno State
Saturday, October 12
4:00 pm PT, FS1
Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks after being shellacked by top-tier Mountain West schools.
Fresno State lost to UNLV two weeks ago, while Ashton Jeanty ran through Washington State that same Saturday.
The key for both these squads is the play of their respective quarterbacks. John Mateer has been Mr.Everything for the Cougars, but this is his first start after a loss, and the Bulldogs are legit in The Valley.
For Mikey Keene, the rest week probably served as a nice rest stop. Keene was never officially on the injury report but looked timid after constant fire from the Rebels.
Both of these defenses have underperformed this season, with the Cougs unit ranking near the bottom of the nation in points allowed per game.
However, WSU also ranks 13th in the nation, scoring 41 points per game, which feels like the most dominant group in the march. John Mateer is also him.
Joe won’t like this one, Cougs by three.
Washington State 38, Fresno State 35
——————
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon
Saturday, October 12
4:30 pm PT, NBC
This is probably the biggest game in the Big Ten this season. Both of these teams are seeking a National Championship.
The key for the Buckeyes in this contest is explosive plays.
Both teams are similar in terms of talent, but OSU probably holds the slight edge at wideout. Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are dirty.
For Oregon, this is an opportunity to brand themselves on a national stage. The Ducks are respected but not quite like Ohio State. A win could change this notion.
The key for Oregon is coming with swagger. They belong, but they might not know it. They’ll need the confidence because the Buckeyes should be able to limit Jordan James, forcing Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden to make some difficult plays.
OSU is third in the nation against the run, which means Dillon Gabriel has to be spot on. Gabriel’s gonna be one spot off.
OSU in the first of maybe another matchup.
Ohio State 35, Oregon 28
——————
Minnesota at UCLA
Saturday, October 12
6:00 pm PT, Big Ten Network
Many times, when researching random teams, I learn something cool. This was different.
Upon further review, UCLA needs a lot of help. Here are some fun stats. The Bruins rank 131st nationally in points per game, 95th in passing yards, and 132nd in rushing yards per outing.
Wasn’t their head coach an NFL running back?
Adding to the celebration, starting quarterback Ethan Garbers is listed as questionable for the contest.
Minnesota is coming off an important win against USC. Now, they have an opportunity to double up on the LA schools, which would be really important to their fanbase.
The Golden Gophers are led on offense by Max Brosmer and Darius Taylor, but they do struggle to score points, ranking 91st nationally in points per game.
This one should be pretty close, but Minnesota finds a way for Goldy.
Minnesota 21, UCLA 20
——————
No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado
Saturday, October 12
7:15 pm PT, ESPN
For the first time this season, Colorado deserves some hype.
Many sportsheads—including myself—thought the Buffaloes would get trounced in Orlando. They did not. They also left before Hurricane Milton. Double win.
This week, the storm the Buffs need to avoid is Avery Johnson, a true freshman who has improved through the air but is as dual-threat as can be.
CU should try to make him beat them with his arm. Kansas State’s passing attack currently ranks 108th in the nation.
For the Buffs, it’s the usual thang. They need their offensive line to protect Shedeur Sanders long enough to pick apart defenses.
It’s important to stay on the field because the Wildcats have the 7th best rushing attack in the nation, led by DJ Giddens.
K-State has also struggled on the road this year, so a few big plays might hurt their confidence.
I won’t pick against Deion twice; CU throws a fiesta.
Colorado 42, Kansas State 28
