The Oklahoma State Cowboys come to Eugene this week with new coaches, new players, and a new defense.
Last season’s OSU defense was so frightful that the Cowboy season ended with nine straight losses and eight of those allowed at least 38 points.
It was the worst season in Mike Gundy’s two decades in Stillwater.
What went wrong?
Early in this decade, Gundy had shown a hankerin’ for a 3-3-5 defensive scheme; not all of the time, but a good portion of it. He liked the angles and options, as well as how challenging it was to block. Finally, before the 2023 season, he decided to leap.
What he discovered was that there were no FBS coaches or coordinators who knew enough about 3-3-5 to suit him. Expanding his search beyond FBS made sense.
Until it didn’t.
Gundy settled on Bryan Nardo.
Who?
Exactly!
Nardo’s only experience as a defensive coordinator was with Division II schools Emporia State and Gannon University. He was barely older than the players, and he had no experience dealing with FBS athletes.
Nardo implemented the 3-3-5 that year, but only as an alternative to four-man fronts. In 2024, the use of the 3-3-5 increased. So did the scoring of opponents. It seems that Nardo knew a lot about 3-3-5 schemes, but not so much about how to get elite FBS athletes to tackle effectively. Pro Football Focus calculated that last season, OSU defenders missed an astonishing 15 tackles per game.
In the course of those awful nine losses last year, many believed that Gundy had lost the locker room. Gundy didn’t seem fazed, and perhaps that was because he had already decided to replace the locker room.
He hit the portal, tapped the NIL, and changed the majority of his roster, bringing in two established coordinators with long resumes at many levels of football.
Have the results been positive?
At first, it might seem so because Oklahoma State brushed off last week’s opponent 27-7. The problem is that the opponent was UT Martin of the FCS. If winning by 20 over an FCS opponent impresses you, then you might answer “yes.” The roster changes have been positive.
However, if you remember that OSU beat a better FCS opponent the year before by more points, and once you know that UT-Martin running backs gained more yards per carry than your own backs, then you are likely to say “no”.
That rushing attack ranked 102nd in the nation last year. As of today, it ranks 105th.
Despite all of the commotion, the future for the ‘Pokes is going to be better than the past. OSU has many winnable games on its schedule, and the trend angles for improvement week-to-week on my savvygameline.com projection system are among the most positive of all teams.
Already, OSU has found a terrific playmaker on the defensive side in South Carolina redshirt freshman outside linebacker Wendell Gregory. If you’re a defensive guy, then Gregory is worth the price of a ticket because he is 255 pounds of constant ferocity and seems destined for national accolades. Right now, Gregory is tied for first in the nation for the most sacks per game.
OSU suffered an awful setback when starting quarterback Hauss Hejny broke his foot against UT-Martin. He is likely out for the season.
In his place will be redshirt freshman Zane Flores. Before Cowboy fans cry too hard over the loss of Hejny, they need to remember that Flores was recruited by upper-level programs in the Big 12, Big 10, and the SEC. He has dual-threat potential, and he completed 65% of his passes last week, whereas Hejny only completed 50%.
Keep an eye on speedy OSU receiver Terrill Davis, who had more than 1600 receiving yards last year at the Division II level. Ordinarily, Division II yardage doesn’t impress me, but Davis is a different story. The 6’0” senior has cutting quickness that is hard to defend.
Davis is averaging more than 37 yards per reception. Most of that yardage comes on shorter patterns that he turns into breakaway sprints to the end zone.
Oklahoma State has played in the Northwest several times in its history. The Cowboys have won their last four games in the Northwest and haven’t lost here since 1951.
Everyone knows that Oregon has offensive weapons at all levels and a bullish offensive line to go with it, so I won’t repeat what everyone has already said.
It was Oregon’s rush defense that I was interested in last week. Although it’s just one game, the Ducks held Montana State to less than two yards per carry. Yes, Montana State is from a lower division, but it is one of the best programs in FCS, and it is known for its rush attack.
There is only one concern that I can see that Duck fans should have this week, and that is this:
Can Puddles keep his head on?
Expert bookmakers have Oregon favored by 28.5 points.
My Savvy Index prediction system says the Ducks will win 44-14.
Last week, Savvy Index was 75-15 in predicting winners. Among the best predictions were:
Washington favored 37-20; final was 38-21
Georgia favored 45-10; final was 45-7
Iowa favored 37-7; final was 34-7
James Madison favored 45-10; final was 45-10
Penn State favored 46-10; final was 46-11
UNLV favored 34-21; final was 38-21
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