In each of the past two seasons, one in every five FBS programs has experienced a change of head coaches.
At first, it might seem that such a significant amount of transition would make it hard for football prognosticators to project outcomes with accuracy. Yet, it is because of those many changes that we can find an abundance of clues that help.
All of our Northwest 4 programs (Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State) have had coaching changes in the past three seasons.
Washington State is the only one with a head coaching change this season, so it is the Cougars we will be previewing today.
On December 18, 2024, Jake Dickert announced he was leaving Washington State to become the head coach at Wake Forest. Ten days later, the Cougars hired Jimmy Rogers from South Dakota State, an FCS school, to replace him.
Rogers has been a college football coach for 12 seasons. None of his experience as a graduate assistant has been away from South Dakota State, none has been at the FBS level, and he has only had two seasons as a head coach.
Given its narrow history, it may seem unlikely that the Savvy prediction system could accurately project the probabilities of his success at Washington State; however, some factors have been reliable for Savvy that we can examine.
Coordinator experience at an elite level
One of the most reliable indicators of a coach’s readiness for success at a new program is having two or more seasons as a coordinator under an elite coach, such as Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. Some of those alums include Dan Lanning of Oregon, Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss, and Mario Cristobal of the University of Miami.
Jimmy Rogers lacks such elite training, so we need to look for other indicators that suggest he will succeed at WSU.
Rising or falling in subsequent seasons
It is common for coaches to take over a program and retain excellence in the first season. It’s the seasons that follow that hold the clues.
We’ve seen this with Lincoln Riley, who started strong at both Oklahoma and again at USC, before his results cratered.
We saw it at Oregon when Mark Helfrich took the Ducks to the ‘natty one year and collapsed the next.
Herm Edwards started fast in the NFL and then at Arizona State. Both times, he was fired within three seasons because he couldn’t sustain the program.
For all three of those coaches, second-year results didn’t measure up to the first, and the trajectory from there didn’t improve.
Why?
Often, new coaches disrupt or dispirit the atmosphere, or they flummox communications when introducing new schemes. More often, they fall because they devalue detail work or they relax their disciplines and conditioning. All of these lead to underperformance, late-game fades, selfish mistakes in critical situations, and frustration among fans.
How will Rogers do at Washington State?
He comes to the Cougars with only two years of experience as a head coach. His first season was undefeated. His second season fell three games short of the playoffs.
That is not enough to say he can’t retain WSU’s current level, but it is a factor that bears vigilance. It also produces a modest negative on my Savvy system.
Hiring of coordinators
Another element to consider is who the new head coach hires as his coordinators. It isn’t so much about the accomplishments of the coordinators but more about the coach’s confidence and ability to hire established talent.
An example to consider is UAB hiring former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer in 2023 to become its new head coach.
Dilfer had all of the name recognition and was considered a “big splash” hire. For reasons I’ve never understood, he didn’t use his big name to hire established coordinators. Instead, he hired one coordinator with no prior coordinator experience and another who had never coached at the college level.
The results?
UAB hasn’t come close to a bowl game under Dilfer’s leadership despite a history of going to a bowl game every year for over a decade.
Rogers brought Danny Freund with him from San Diego State University (SDSU). Freund spent just two years at South Dakota State, and it was only last year that he was named offensive coordinator.
Also following Rogers from SDSU is defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit, who has just one year of experience as a coordinator.
Because none of these coaches have elite experience, less than three years at their current position levels, no ties to the Northwest, and no experience in FBS, my system has once again assigned a modestly negative rating.
Scheme matching
A primary question in any hiring process is whether the new coach’s scheme aligns with that of the previous season.
For Washington State, the answer on the offensive side is a conclusive “no”.
Freund is a pro-style guy moving into a Mike Leach neighborhood. It won’t be easy for him to play well with others if his pro-style scheme can’t get going because his roster was built with a host of Air Raid players who still populate the roster.
Things might have gone better if Coach Rogers could have brought 1,700-yard running back Pierre Strong from SDSU through the portal, but Strong jumped to the NFL.
If there is a ray of hope in this offensive transition, it is that WSU will be favored in all three of its opening games (Idaho, San Diego State, and North Texas). Winning all three will be critical because the next four are likely losses – at home against Washington, at Colorado State, at Ole Miss, and at Virginia – all in a row.
Recruiting
Despite the many changes at Washington State since the dissolution of the PAC-12, WSU has done a great job in maintaining its recruiting ranking. Yes, it has been five consecutive years that the Cougar recruiting ranking has fallen, but the drops have been small.
Rogers has done well in recruiting. His coaches retained the 72nd best recruiting class in the nation (247sports.com), which is not a deep drop from last year’s 64th despite a complete overhaul of the coaching staff.
In a nutshell . . .
This year’s schedule is as challenging as last year’s. The coaching staff is all new and has no experience in FBS. The scheme is a major departure from the previous decade and is not compatible with much of the current roster.
Overall, Savvygameline says the grade for Washington State’s coaching change is “D”.
That doesn’t mean this group is incapable of reaching eight wins in 2025, but it does mean there is almost nothing to suggest it will.
What is known is that the Cougars must start the season 3-0 to achieve a winning record. If WSU has no missteps in the first three games, it could find itself in another bowl game.
By this weekend, my prediction system will have ratings for all coaching changes in FBS for the current season.
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