Throughout the College Football season, I give my just-for-fun picks, but I’m competitive, so I do some research.
I’m off to a 72-21 start in my fearless picks this year. Last season I got 70% right.
I went 7-3 a week ago, missing on USC, Fresno State, and Washington.
This week I’m making picks for the following games:
– New Mexico at Nevada
– TCU at Arizona
– UCLA at Minnesota
– BYU at Utah
– Oregon at Ohio State
– Penn State at Washington
– Boise State at Colorado State
– Colorado at Arizona State
– Texas State at Oregon State
– Wyoming at UNLV
Sit back and vibe.
Let’s get on to the picks.
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New Mexico at Nevada
Friday, November 6
6:00 PM PT, CBSSN
New Mexico enters this matchup after winning its last two contests, including a 21-16 win over San Jose State last week. The Lobos remain undefeated in the Mountain West, atop the conference by themselves.
Nevada enters this matchup coming off a loss at UCLA, following a victory over San Jose State. The Wolf Pack probably need a win to make a bowl game.
The biggest key to this contest is whether Nevada can limit UNM’s rushing attack. New Mexico isn’t a great passing team; they haven’t found a consistent passer since Jack Layne’s injury.
The Lobos are ranked 14th nationally in rushing yards per game. However, Scottre Humphrey leads the push with 540 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Kiefer Sibley is another key contributor, with 485 yards and three touchdowns.
The Pack needs to stop this duo in early-down situations to give their defense a chance to force turnovers. Toa Fa’avae has already thrown seven interceptions this season.
Flipping the sand, Nevada features a similarly constructed offense. The halfback duo of Herschel Turner Jr. and Dominic Kelley leads the Wolf Pack. They’ve combined for 1,096 rushing yards and nine running touchdowns.
The Lobos sneak the Pack.
New Mexico 27, Nevada 14
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TCU at No. 22 Arizona
Friday, November 6
7:15 PM PT, ESPN
TCU enters this contest coming off a victory over Kansas, after previously losing to West Virginia at home. The Horned Frogs will be locked in for this matchup and will likely need a win here to make a bowl game.
Arizona returns home after a loss at Texas Tech a week ago, following a win over Iowa State. A win keeps them in the top four of the Big 12 standings.
The key to this contest is whether TCU’s defense can limit Noah Fifita. The Frogs’ offense is struggling, and if the Wildcats put 30 points on the board, it’ll likely prove too much to overcome.
However, TCU’s defense is the best in the Big 12, ranking 20th nationally in opponent third-down conversion rate. They also rank eighth in the nation in points allowed per game.
The Horned Frogs are struggling to score, though, which is odd considering they move the ball well through the air. They rank 102nd in the country in points scored per game, which is also bewildering because Jaden Craig has passed for over 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Kari Ashley, Ed Small, and Jordan Dwyer also each have at least 400 receiving yards. Sonny Dykes’ offense is moving, but needs an oil change.
Fifita is the shop owner.
Arizona 31, TCU 21
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No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota
Saturday, November 7
9:00 AM PT, FOX
UCLA is the West’s surprise team this year. They enter this matchup after shutting out Nevada at home last week, defeating Michigan State the week before.
Minnesota enters this game off a heartbreaking loss against Indiana, but they’ve proven to be a team that can beat anyone this season, having previously defeated Iowa.
The key to this contest is the Golden Gophers offense. The Bruins’ formula is predictable: run the ball and play defense. Their offense is cool but not amazing; they didn’t score more than 30 points in a game in October.
If Drake Lindsey finds his flow again, the Gophers will probably be in a good spot. Minnesota’s already faced Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana, so they’ve seen top-tier defenses.
At some point, Ty Dieffenbach’s inexperience might hurt UCLA. Dieffenbach made two vital throws against Wisconsin, but that could prove an aberration.
The Golden Gophers would probably prefer someone different than Wayne Knight to try and beat them. Knight’s one of the top running backs in the conference and is smoking defenses.
He’s rushed for 680 yards, 12 touchdowns, and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Anthony Woods is also a problem.
No artistic rituals in this one.
The Bruins melt the snow.
UCLA 24, Minnesota 20
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No. 9 BYU at No. 3 Utah
Saturday, November 7
9:00 AM PT, ABC
This game should be getting a better time slot. While Miami at Notre Dame will garner more national attention, this one’s for the boys. The state of Utah, the actual state, including both programs, does football right.
Players still give it their all, stay humble, and play with violence. This will be a vicious affair, and both teams deserve respect, regardless of the outcome.
BYU enters this matchup after beating Arizona State a week ago; they previously lost their first game of the season against UCF.
Utah enters this game after throttling Cincinnati last week to remain undefeated, following a win over Houston.
The key to this contest is whether Bear Bachmeier can carry the team. While both quarterbacks’ stats are comparable, there’s more heat on Bachmeier. If the Cougars lose, it could knock them out of the College Football Playoff.
LJ Martin returns at halfback, which is nice, but he’ll likely be limited. Bachmeier will need to play as he did against Iowa State if BYU’s gonna make risotto.
Devon Dampier also lacks consistency, but he’s got the home-field advantage. Both teams are similarly constructed, but the Utes hold the edge offensively.
Utah traps puma.
Utah 28, BYU 21
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No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State
Saturday, November 7
12:30 PM PT, CBS
Oregon’s season is difficult to understand. The hit on Dante Moore obviously hurt their win total, but they also lost to Oklahoma State with Moore still healthy.
But the Ducks need to realize their season starts now. They could still make the Big Ten title game, and even sneak into the College Football Playoff with a few wonky results.
Oregon enters this matchup coming off a home win over Northwestern, but they previously lost to Illinois.
If the Buckeyes lose, Oregon passes them in the conference standings. Ohio State will be ready, coming off a loss at USC after beating Indiana.
The key for the Ducks in this contest is their red zone defense. OSU finished with 464 yards of offense against the Trojans, but they only scored 18 points. If Ohio State scores a few touchdowns, Dylan Raiola may struggle to keep pace.
The Ducks are ranked 79th nationally in red zone defense coming into this matchup. Raiola may have found the universe against the Wildcats, but the Buckeyes are loaded with NFL talent.
Luke Fahey also proved more than competent as a starting signal caller. He’ll likely correct his mistakes as he gains experience, especially at home this week.
The EA Sports 27 stadium pulse is too loud for UO.
Ohio State 35, Oregon 17
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Penn State at Washington
Saturday, November 7
12:30 PM PT, FS1
Penn State enters this game after getting a nice victory against Purdue, after previously losing to Michigan.
Washington returns home after notching a huge dub against Nebraska a week ago. The Huskies are 5-3, but rank near the bottom of the Big Ten, at 13th.
The key to this matchup is which version of Demond Williams Jr. shows up. It feels like Williams Jr. has never been the same since the off-season situation. Maybe the injury, sorta being benched, and the epic comeback restored his confidence.
Washington is talented enough at the skill position to put up some points if he connects on a few passes. Chris Lawson and Dezmen Roebuck have combined for 1,147 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions.
Rashid Williams can also prove dangerous at times.
Both teams struggle to run the ball, which places extra importance on the passing attack. The Huskies rank 135th nationally in rushing yards per game, and the Lions are 80th in the same statistic.
Rocco Becht is experienced at quarterback, but his fanbase expects a few more wins.
The Blue Algae from Lake Washington stops PSU.
Washington 38, Penn State 24
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No. 25 Boise State at Colorado State
Saturday, November 7
3:00 PM PT, USA
Boise State will be ready for this matchup. They almost saw their College Football Playoff hopes go awry against Texas State.
This game is perfect for them in many ways; they get a chance to fix a few things defensively against a formidable offense.
Most importantly, the Broncos are still undefeated and sit atop the Pac-12.
For Colorado State, it was a loss in what probably felt like a winnable matchup against Utah State. The defeat dropped the Rams near the bottom of the conference standings and prompted a passionate post-game interview with Jim Mora.
If the Rams are going to pull off the upset, they’ll need an explosive outing from Hauss Hejny, who struggled against the Aggies last week, but previously won the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week award for his outing against San Diego State.
He combined for over 400 yards of offense and five touchdowns.
Hejny will also need support from halfbacks Mel Brown and Durell Robinson. This duo likely won’t find consistent success, but a few explosives could keep them in it.
The Broncos need to be careful, though; Max Cutforth played well in relief a week ago, but lacks consistency throughout his career. His experience should serve him well, as it did last week.
And even if he struggles, Maddux Madsen might be ready.
Boise State 49, CSU 14
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Colorado at Arizona State
Saturday, November 7
4:30 PM PT, ESPN2
Is this the end of the Deion Sanders era? Sanders improved Colorado upon arrival, but they’ve been pretty mediocre ever since.
With Houston and an improved Cincinnati still on their schedule, a victory in Tempe might be their only route to a bowl game. The Buffaloes beat Kansas State last week; previously, they got rolled by Oklahoma State.
Arizona State enters this game coming off a loss against BYU; previously, they lost against Texas Tech.
The key to this contest is making Jake Fette prove he can win a game. The Buffaloes should press the receivers, stack the box, and force Fette to throw over the top.
The Sun Devils boast a talented receiving core led by wideout Reed Harris, who is off to a phenomenal start with 804 receiving yards, eight touchdown receptions, and an average of 16.8 yards per grab. He’s ninth nationally in total receiving yards.
Harris is complemented on offense by halfback Cardae Mack and wideout Omarion Miller.
CU counters with wideout Joseph Williams, who leads the team with 732 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions. Colorado’s second-best offensive threat is wideout DeAndre Moore Jr.
Isaac Wilson also must continue to protect the ball; this proved key against the Wildcats.
Fetty Wap forever, “I’m like hey what’s up hello.”
Arizona State 28, Colorado 27
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Texas State at Oregon State
Saturday, November 7
7:300 PM PT, CW
Texas State almost broke the Pac-12 last week.
They played Boise State tough the entire game, and scored what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown with under four minutes left. Even though they lost, they’re in a solid spot here.
They have a chance to fix last week’s mistakes by leaving Reser with a win. If they do, they’ll also move into the upper echelon of the league.
For Oregon State, a loss here kills their season’s momentum. The defeat at Fresno State was disappointing, marring their undefeated conference record, but following it with a home loss to the Bobcats hurts much more.
The key to this matchup is whether Oregon State can use its size. Fresno State bullied them, which feels unlikely against Texas State.
If TXST controls the line of scrimmage, Torrance Burgess Jr. might take over the game. The Bobcats are probably known for their passing attack, but Burgess Jr. is putting up big numbers. He’s rushed for 922 yards and five touchdowns thus far.
This is likely gonna be a shootout between arguably the league’s two best quarterbacks. Jesse Legree is also invited. This game should be an ode to the renditions of Pac-12’s past.
Oregon State’s a part of the past.
Oregon State 38, Texas State 20
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Wyoming at UNLV
Saturday, November 7
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports
Wyoming enters this contest coming off a bye, having previously defeated Air Force, and is riding a three-game winning streak. If the Cowboys win, they’ll be in second place in the Mountain West, setting up a potential showdown with New Mexico in a few weeks.
UNLV enters this contest after almost fumbling the bag against Northern Illinois and previously losing to Air Force. If they win, they claim sole potential of second place in the league, before a potential showdown with the Lobos next week.
The key to this contest is the Cowboys’ pressure on Jackson Arnold. Arnold started slow this year, but is finding his rhythm as the season progresses.
He’s probably still best as a rusher, but he’s thrown for 1,655 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions this year. But it’s hard to forget the way he crumbled against Memphis.
UW ranks 45th nationally in team sacks, so they might be able to capitalize. The Rebels’ defense also nearly allowed 500 yards against Northern Illinois.
Wyoming’s offense ranks among the worst in the nation in points scored per game, but it has improved in its last two outings. During their winning streak, Tyler Hughes has rushed for 421 yards and five touchdowns.
But Vegas thrives on short-term success.
UNLV 31, Wyoming 17
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