With NIL, the transfer portal, and new regulations, the pace of change in college football is so rapid that it seems impossible to keep up. How can anyone predict a game today when the scene can change dramatically tomorrow?
Consider Oklahoma, where everything was lookin’ cushy through the off-season and Summer workouts. Then, out of the blue, word comes that the quarterback the Sooners were relying on to resurrect their weak offense may lose eligibility because of gambling allegations.
A few days before, it was BYU that got rattled when last year’s Cougar quarterback John Retzlaff showed up as a walk-on at Tulane.
Despite the challenges, it is certain that if someone doesn’t do it, then it won’t get done.
It’s somewhat like Dick Cavett said: “If your parents didn’t have children, then chances are you won’t either.”
To simplify things, I’ll categorize Oregon and Oregon State opponents as high, moderate, or low risk based on projections from my savvygameline.com prediction system.
If the season goes as projected by Savvygameline, Oregon will finish 11-1 in the regular season, and Oregon State will finish with five straight wins and a record of 8-4.
OREGON
Oregon low-risk games:
Oregon 44, Oklahoma State 17
Oklahoma State had to overhaul its entire program, and there isn’t much time to get it together before playing a program like Oregon on September 6th.
Oregon 47, Oregon State 7
The game is at Autzen, and UO is elite at nearly all levels.
Oregon 41, Wisconsin 14
Wisconsin went to the spread offense for two years despite having powerball personnel. Now they’re back to brawl ball. Would someone in the Badger program please make up their mind? You can’t be indecisive against Oregon.
Oregon 41, USC 13
My, how the mighty Trojans have fallen.
Oregon moderate risk games:
Oregon 35, Montana State 14
Oregon is a solid favorite, but Montana State nearly won the FCS title last year and begins this season #2 on Savvygameline.
Oregon 31, Northwestern 17
This game is in Illinois and begins at 9 a.m. Pacific time. NWU has a new QB who has substantial credentials from SMU.
Oregon 33, Indiana 24
Yes, Indiana was 11-2 last year. Still, the Hoosier schedule was fluff except for two games against ranked opponents, both of which Indiana lost miserably, and IU no longer has its ignition switch, QB Kurtis Rourke.
Oregon 36, Rutgers 17
This game is rated “moderate” by savvygameline.com primarily because it will be played on the East Coast. Otherwise, Oregon will roll because RU has a weak rush defense and significant concerns at linebacker and defensive backs.
Oregon 30, Minnesota 17
Gophers control time of possession with stiff defense. Minnesota’s ground game is good but not consistent, especially now that two outstanding offensive linemen have transferred away.
Oregon 33, Washington 20
Oregon won by 28 last year in Eugene, but Washington is going to be better on both sides of the ball in 2025.
Oregon high-risk games:
Penn State 30, Oregon 27
If Drew Allar’s knee had hit the Autzen turf one-half second sooner, PSU would have won in Eugene last year. Allar is back, and this time, the game is in Pennsylvania.
Oregon 23, Iowa 21
Iowa has won 21 of its last 23 games in November, and this is a road game for Oregon. This week, the Des Moines Register projected the Hawkeyes by six.
OREGON STATE
Oregon State low-risk games:
Oregon State 45, Lafayette (PA) 13
Lafayette was 6-6 in FCS last season. The Leopards expect to have a decent ground game, but QBs throw almost as many interceptions as they do touchdowns.
Oregon State 41, Tulsa 21
Tre Lamb is the new head coach for Tulsa, but as I mentioned earlier, there isn’t much to suggest the Golden Hurricanes will be any more competitive than the bunch that gave up 43 ppg last season. Lamb won just 27 of 52 games at the FCS level.
Oregon State moderate risk games:
Oregon State 31, Appalachian State 20
App State has two new quarterbacks. Neither has proven credentials. ASU’s defense has just three starters back from a woeful 2024 group that lost more transfers-out than had transfers-in.
Oregon State high-risk games:
California 27, Oregon State 24
Cal’s offensive line was awful last year, which led to RB Jayden Ott transferring out. OSU has a better QB, so the Beavers should compete well.
Oregon State 30, Fresno State 27
FSU will start Kurt Warner’s son at QB, but I’m not excited. This is his third college team, mainly due to his propensity for throwing double-digit interceptions. Despite this close prediction by savvygameline.com, I think OSU wins by six points or more.
Texas Tech 41, Oregon State 21
Beavers’ first road game against a team that is buying its way to the top.
Oregon State at Oregon’s
See above because I can’t bring myself to repeat it.
Oregon State 24, Houston 21
I disagree with Savvy on this prediction. Will Fritz, the coach at UH, is in his second season, where his rebuilds are beginning to pay off.
Wake Forest 30, Oregon State 28
Traveling coast-to-coast will be tough for Wake Forest, but the Deacons should prevail thanks to new coach Jake Dickert (Washington St.) bringing in 35 new players with an emphasis on stopping the revolving door of the secondary.
Oregon State 28, Washington State 24
I discussed the hiring of Jimmy Rogers as WSU’s new coach earlier, along with reasons for disappointment. Forty-six (46) transferred from WSU. I believe OSU wins this by 10+ and does it again in the rematch that ends the season.
Oregon State 30, Sam Houston State 27
Sam Houston State was 10-3 last season against a feeble schedule. SMSU doesn’t return a single starter on defense. Phil Longo is back to head coach SMSU after a frustrating offensive coordinator experience at the Wisconsin above.
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