Shaedon Sharpe’s future is as cloudy as his ceiling is high. And therein lies the problem and the intrigue.
When the Portland Trail Blazers drafted Sharpe No. 7 overall in 2022, they were swinging for upside. At times, Sharpe, 21, has presented as a go-to scorer with good control and elite athleticism. At others, he blends into the background, as he’s still learning to process NBA defenses and shooting inconsistently from beyond the arc.
That upside is still tantalizing. It’s not going away anytime soon, but the questions are there, and they will determine whether the Trail Blazers offer Sharpe a contract extension this summer that he’ll take.
Sharpe’s 2024-25 Season
Sharpe’s Year 3 was supposed to be a leap. But after missing the first eight games with a shoulder injury, he struggled to carve out a steady role in the rotation.
In his absence, Deni Avdija and rookie Toumani Camara both emerged as valuable pieces on the wing, limiting Sharpe’s margin for error as well as his spotlight. Still, the 6’5” guard averaged 18.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in 31.3 minutes per game. He made 52 starts, and as expected, he flashed the same bounce and scoring instincts that made him a lottery pick.
Efficiency, however, remains a concern. His 31.1 percent from deep on 6.6 attempts per game drags down his overall value, which complicates the outlook for a team figuring out which pieces are true building blocks.
The Question
Should the Blazers pay Sharpe based on what he is, or what he might be?
From a front office perspective, this negotiation comes with risk. If they extend Sharpe now, they could lock in a valuable piece at a discount, should he figure it all out. But if they overpay for potential that never fully materializes, they’re tying up cap space on a streaky scorer who hasn’t shown he can defend or create reliably for others.
Then again, if they wait, and he breaks out in a contract year, the price could skyrocket.
The job of an NBA general manager is not simple, folks.
Sharpe’s Market
Sharpe’s market could range widely. At the high end, I might think of Jalen Green’s three years, $106 million. That’s $35.3 million per season for a dynamic shot-creator with similar defensive questions, not to mention a 23-year-old on a young, overachieving team.
It’s tougher to predict a lower-end comparison, but I might think Jaden McDaniels’ five-year, $136 million extension he signed in October 2023. That’s $27.2 million for a dynamic 24-year-old on a surging Minnesota Timberwolves team. It’s a deal in today’s market that’s not for a No. 1 or 2 options, but still rewards a player contributing meaningfully, yet unlikely to make an All-Star leap.
Of course, where we are right now feels like a murky middle ground. And Portland might not want to wade into those waters just yet.
Prediction
Expect Portland to let Sharpe play out the final year of his rookie contract and reassess during the Summer of 2026, when they’ll have more clarity on his development and the state of the roster and cap sheet.
Expect Sharpe to be just OK with this, too. If Portland makes any offer this summer, I’d expect it to be a team-friendly, safe deal that doesn’t bank so much on the future. It’s a deal the Blazers would be happy to sign. But it’s also one that Sharpe and his agent will pass on in favor of a prove-it year.
There’s still belief in Sharpe’s upside in Portland. But faith alone doesn’t cut checks. Not in an offseason that will shape the rebuild’s next chapter.
That’s why we’ll likely have this discussion again a year from now, hopefully after a career-high year.
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