When the University of Maryland football team comes to Eugene to play top-ranked Oregon, you won’t see any Terrapin players celebrating their successes by mimicking guns.
That prohibition is a strict command of head coach Mike Locksley and one that his players understand because they are aware that Locksley lost his 25-year-old son Meika to gun violence seven years ago in a case that has never been solved.
Locksley is a soulful and authentic coach. His heartfelt nature binds his players to him and motivates them to give their best.
Under Locksley, the University of Maryland football program has made it to three successive bowl games. That is quite an achievement because, before his arrival, Maryland had never before even had a winning season in the Big Ten Conference.
UM has not been a stalwart in college football. It’s been 48 years since the Terrapins finished in the top ten, and you would need to go back another generation, to the era of three-cent stamps and the introduction of the 1953 Corvette, to find Maryland’s lone national championship in 108 years of playing football.
The Terrapins don’t have an illustrious past, but they are headed for higher ground under Locksley.
Maryland 4-4 at #1 Oregon (9-0)
The Terrapins come to Eugene with a 4-4 record and can compete with strong opponents. They have wins over Virginia and Southern California and were within one score in the fourth quarter against undefeated Big Ten co-leader Indiana.
As good as the Terrapins have been against strong teams, they have bewildered experts with losses at home to Michigan State by three and Northwestern by 27, both of which have losing records.
So, which Maryland team will we see this week?
I reviewed trends in my Savvy system and noticed that the Terrapins have played above expectations on every odd-numbered game and below expectations on every even-numbered game. I don’t know why, but that’s been their pattern. If it holds up, this is a Terrapin “up” week.
The UM offensive line has been pretty good regarding pass blocking, but it is below 100 for both basic rush blocking and allowing tackles for loss. Those deficiencies won’t be critical against Oregon because the Ducks are not particularly strong against the run.
Maryland relies heavily on former three-star Wake Forest dual-threat quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who is among the nation’s top 20 for completion percentage (68%) and has five touchdowns on the ground, coming from being second on the team in rush attempts.
Those accomplishments won’t match Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, who leads the nation in completion percentage and has six touchdowns on the ground. Still, Edwards is good enough to keep UM consistently moving forward.
Defensively, Maryland will use a 4-3 scheme that is very good at controlling running backs but significantly below average at bringing pressure to opposing backfields.
The Terrapins are well above average for picking off passes, but the overall pass defense breaks down once opponents reach the red zone. Once the Ducks smell pay dirt, expect them to put the ball in the air.
UM can ball-hawk with the best of them, with Jalen Huskey and Glendon Miller in the national top 20 for intercepting passes. However, as of Monday, Miller’s name was on the Maryland injury list.
Miller’s loss might be offset by Oregon receiver Tez Johnson, who suffered a shoulder injury last Saturday and is not yet cleared to play.
Metrics on my Savvy Index system show Oregon trending upward every week, with improved offensive line play, pass completion defense, pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and stopping passing touchdowns.
What has been continuously dropping is picking off opponent passes (77th nationally).
Maryland’s defensive interception rate is climbing while Oregon’s is declining, and that may become a factor in Saturday’s game.
Oregon running back Jordan James will get plenty of touches this week and will likely surpass 1000 yards on the season.
Betting lines say Oregon will win by 25 points.
My savvygameline.com system says it will be Oregon, 35-17.
Oregon is deserving of its top ranking. The Ducks have all of the metrics in my Savvy system that have been common to previous national championship programs.
Last week, my system was two games better than betting lines in predicting winners, ten games better in setting point spreads, and 95 games better in projecting total combined points per game for the season.
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