With the 2024 season at the halfway point, Oregon State football is in a precarious position regarding its chances of winning and reaching a bowl game.
The Beavers will likely be underdogs in games against UNLV, California, Washington State, and Boise State. A home game against San Jose State is too close to predict at this time.
With four losses on the horizon and one in the books, the Beavers cannot afford a letdown this weekend at Nevada.
The Wolfpack enter this week’s game with a 2-4 record, but there is more to Nevada’s story than their record suggests.
Oregon State (4-1) at Nevada (2-4)
The similarities between these teams are intriguing.
Both prefer to run more often than pass. Oregon State is in the top 25 for rush effectiveness, while Nevada is in the top 50.
Both have capable passing quarterbacks who can run. At the same time, both have high interception rates.
Both have surprised experts with offensive lines that my savvygameline.com system ranks in the top 50.
Neither defends the rush very well, and both defenses are dismal when it comes to bringing pressure.
In other words, both have good rush attacks and decent passing but weak defenses.
Both have transfer quarterbacks. Oregon State relies on Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy, while former Colorado starter Brendon Lewis leads Nevada.
Both have magnificent lead running backs. Oregon State’s Anthony Hankerson is on pace to top 1000 yards and is currently the nation’s seventh-leading scorer on the ground.
The Wolfpack will counter junior Savion Red, who averages 7.2 yards per carry.
The Beavers have two advantages. They have only turned the ball over three times all year, while Nevada has twice that many turnovers, most of them through the air. Oregon State commits fewer penalties while the Wolfpack surrenders 87 yards per game to yellow flags.
They are a tough out when the Wolfpack plays without turnovers or penalties.
They’re also one of the best outfits in America when it comes to red zone offense. Nevada has been in the red zone 22 times this year and converted 21 of those into points.
Both teams will stay primarily on the ground, and both will have success. Oregon State’s offensive front has been strong, and Nevada’s defensive front has been weak.
Beyond stats and tendencies, watching this group play reveals what makes Nevada a threat to Oregon State’s winning season. The Wolfpack has been extraordinarily competitive.
Nevada began the season by steadily building to a 24-13 advantage through three quarters against SMU. The Wolfpack produced 148 yards on the ground, and that was against SMU’s nationally-ranked rush defense. Only a fourth-quarter rally saved SMU from a certain loss.
That wasn’t against a mediocre opponent. SMU is currently 5-1 and ranked in the top 25 by the Associated Press and in the top 15 on my Savvy Index.
The following week, Nevada defeated a weak Troy team, but it was the sudden burst of 28 Wolfpack points in just one half that caught the attention of scouts.
Although Nevada lost to Georgia Southern, it should be noted that the loss was by just three points, and GSU’s only losses were to nationally ranked teams, Mississippi and Boise State. Nevada outgained Georgia Southern 498 to 285, and that was another Wolfpack outburst that gained attention.
Last week at San Jose State, the Wolfpack led until the final 16 seconds when a trick play went for 24 yards and bailed the Spartans out. Remember that San Jose State’s only loss was by two points to Washington State.
It would be a mistake to judge this Nevada outfit by its 2-4 record. Behind that record is a very competitive team that has lost three times by less than a touchdown. With a few more yards and fewer trick plays, it would be 5-1 right now.
That is the lesson to be learned. I suppose some will learn it, and some will not.
As Will Rogers said, “There are three kinds of men. One learns by reading. A few learn by observing others. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.”
Betting lines favor Oregon State by four.
My Savvy Index prediction system says the Beavers will prevail 32-21, but this game’s upset rating is very high.
I have all 51 game predictions for this week, which can be seen at savvygameline.com.
The Savvy system is 313-89 in predicting winners. It is seven games better than bookmakers in setting point spreads and a fantastic 57 games better in projecting total game points.
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