Familiar faces return to the Willamette Valley as Michigan State takes the field against the Oregon Ducks on Friday. Led by former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, several assistants, and former Beaver quarterback Aiden Chiles, it will be a clash of known names, except for the name PAC-12.
I have predictions for all FBS games this week at savvygameline.com, but first, let’s see how Michigan State and Oregon match up.
Michigan State [3-2] at #13 Oregon [4-0]
MSU started the season with three wins, highlighted by a 27-24 victory on the road against a very good Maryland team. Since then, the Spartan offense has not scored 20 points, and MSU has lost two consecutive times.
It’s important to note that those losses were to national contender Ohio State and the surging Eagles of Boston College, teams that have combined for a 9-1 record.
Offensive problems for the Spartans are sourced in an offensive line that my Savvy system estimates is about 88th-best in the nation. It has been well below average for run blocking and allowing defenders to get to their running backs and quarterback.
Those deficiencies have caused MSU quarterback Aiden Chiles to scramble and throw on the run. That pressure has led Chiles to a mere 56.3% completion rate and an interception rate three times the national average. He ranks second in the nation for the most interceptions thrown this season.
Things won’t get better this week because Oregon has the nation’s seventh-stingiest pass completion defense and a top-30 pass rush.
The good news for MSU fans is that if Chiles turns scrambles into runs, he’s pretty good. Nearly 10% of his runs finish in the end zone, while all other running backs combined have only gotten there less than 2% of the time.
If the Spartans can get to the red zone, the likelihood of them scoring is high because they turn those trips into points the majority of the time. Oregon’s defense ranks dead last in America for stopping red zone attacks. Duck defenders are a perfect nine-for-nine for showing politeness around their own end zone.
Even if the Spartans can only get into “plus” territory, they are likely to score because they have the nation’s most accurate field goal kicker in Jonathan Kim. And Kim’s perfection isn’t just “gimme” shots close in. More than half of his field goals have come from beyond 40 yards.
Oregon won’t find much success running the ball because the Spartan rush defense is strong, and the Ducks just haven’t gotten much push up front.
Instead, the Quack Attack will focus on an aerial attack as it did last week because the Ducks have the nation’s most accurate passer in Dillon Gabriel and because MSU’s coverage of receivers is weak.
Oregon receivers continue to excel, led by senior Tez Johnson, who is 11th in the nation in receptions, and Traeshon Holden, who averages more than 14 yards per reception.
Oregon’s concerns about an injury to Terrence Ferguson appear to be resolved since Ferguson’s name doesn’t appear on injury lists.
Even if Ferguson can’t play, sensational sophomore Kenyon Sadiq has amassed nearly the same number of receptions and yards as Ferguson despite being Ferguson’s backup.
Each team will be short two defensive backs, so secondary help will be thin.
Both teams have had fumble issues, so expect to see the ball on the ground and some exciting reversals of possessions.
Experts predict Oregon will win by 24.
My Savvy Index system says it will be closer, 31-17.
Last week, savvygameline.com was 11 games better than bookmakers in determining point spreads and 26 games better in projecting the total number of points for each game.
On the season, the Index is 285-73 in projecting winners.
