This is the time of year that we make projections for the FBS national championship. It’s a fun and insightful task that has been quite rewarding over the years.
Last season at this time, we used our system to project that Clemson would defeat Alabama in the championship game two months into the future. It seemed odd at the time because the Crimson Tide had been number one with us all year long and was still number one at the moment of kick off. While it’s great that Clemson won, it’s not so great that we fell just a little bit short of the final margin.
For this season’s preview, we’ll keep things simple by not posting dozens of numbers that our system uses, but rather, we’ll provide a narrative for each team. Of course, we might get it wrong but at least it will be easier to read.
We’re only going to look at the teams currently in our top ten since it is unlikely that others will make the final four.
10. NOTRE DAME 5-1
The Irish win-loss record ranks last among our ten teams. They also have performance numbers that are only about half of the average for teams in this preview. A win over Michigan this weekend followed by a series of games that they should win might be enough to get the Irish into the playoff, but this is not a team that should be there and not a team that will go far.
9. GEORGIA 6-1
Surprised? Georgia has been praised all season but a closer look makes it clear that the Bulldogs have not established the metrics of a team deserving to play for the title. UGA has nearly the same weakness of schedule as Notre Dame with, coincidentally, Notre Dame as the only elite opponent UGA has played. Georgia’s performance ratios are only slightly better than Notre Dame but still only one-third that of Ohio State. Despite all of that, a win over Florida next week might get UGA to the SEC championship which might get Georgia to the playoff. We don’t think so, but it is possible.
8. UTAH 6-1
Although Utah is a top ten team, we won’t spend much time here because the Utes are second-tier in all preview categories. And, Utah is behind USC in PAC-12 South standings so it has an uphill battle to even win its own division. Utah won’t win the national championship because it doesn’t have the resume’ to get there.
7. OREGON 6-1
The Ducks are the best of the one-loss teams. They rank second only to LSU in strength of opposition with a schedule that is far above the average for this ten team group. However, Oregon underwhelmed the first half of the season and established performance lines below the group average. The second half of the season has started with a sharp up-trend but time is short and future opponents aren’t very unimpressive.
6. PENN STATE 7-0
Penn State will need to run the table the rest of the way to be considered for the playoff. Anything short of five straight wins plus the Big-10 championship will, appropriately, leave this team out. Unfortunately for the Lions, running the table means upsetting Ohio State on the road on November 23rd. That will be a big task because Penn State’s performance lines are 15% below average for this group while Ohio State has the best performance factors of any team in the entire nation.
5. OKLAHOMA 7-0 PLAYOFF TEAM
The Sooners rate high in all facets of this analysis except for the strength of their opposition thanks to a non-conference schedule that was composed of one FCS opponent and two FBS teams (Houston and UCLA) that have losing records and haven’t been good enough to even get into the top 75. Although we rank Oklahoma outside of the top four, the Sooners will be a final four team by passing the loser of the LSU-Alabama game.
4. CLEMSON 7-0 PLAYOFF TEAM
We’re not seeing the same kind of Clemson team that we saw last year. The Tigers have played a decent schedule but their performances have been unspectacular. Clemson is good enough to be projected into the playoff but not good enough to stick around long. Therefore, we won’t be surprised if Clemson makes a one-and-done, cameo appearance.
3. ALABAMA 7-0
Alabama not in the final four? Like last year, the Crimson Tide has led our Index rankings every week since the preseason. But, their time in the top spot is likely to end soon so we are left with their performance trends which are as flat-lined as any we’ve ever seen from a Nick Saban-coached team. Alabama is a narrow underdog to LSU on November 9th and if that happens, the Tide will miss the playoff because they not only failed to win the SEC championship but, in fact, they didn’t even win their own division.
2. LSU 7-0 PLAYOFF TEAM
The Tigers have been surging upward all season and have the performance metrics of a national champion. LSU has played a schedule that is superior to all other teams in this review. Except for Oregon, the distance between LSU’s schedule and all others is substantial. And, the Tigers have performed well above average for the group. There are many who believe that LSU’s habit of stumbling when least expected will keep the Tigers out of the final four but this year’s team is better and seems less likely to fall in a random upset. The winner of the LSU-Alabama game will entrench itself in this playoff spot. For now, it goes to LSU.
1. OHIO STATE 7-0 PLAYOFF TEAM
There is no team in the FBS with greater data dynamics than Ohio State. Indeed, the schedule is less than average compared to others in this group, but that will get better after the Buckeyes feast on Badgers for Halloween and Nittany Lions for Thanksgiving. Ohio State has amassed more positive up-trends in the past four weeks than any other FBS team has the entire season. It’s easy to say in this first playoff projection that the Buckeyes are the favorites to win the FBS national championship.
