Where Does Dillon Gabriel Sit In The Current Heisman Trophy Odds?

Now that we’re a few weeks into the hectic weekly hubbub of college football, let’s look at the Heisman race and the Duck within. Currently, the Heisman Trophy odds rank the top ten as follows:

Cam Ward (#7 Miami)
Jaxson Dart (#6 Ole Miss)
Jalen Milroe (#4 Alabama)
Nico Iamaleava (#5 Tennessee)
Dillon Gabriel (#8 Oregon)
Quinn Ewers (#1 Texas)
Carson Beck (#2 Georgia)
Travis Hunter (unranked Colorado)
Will Howard (#3 Ohio State)
Miller Moss (#13 USC)

Changes in this list from here to December will likely be minimal, and they will mainly just shuffle around these names. The issue is that many of these players have not yet been challenged this season. Quarterbacks Ward, Dart, Milroe, Ewers, Beck, and Howard have played only in massive wins for their respective teams. Across these twenty blowouts, opposing teams have averaged a mere 7.3 points. Eighteen of these twenty losing teams were unranked. This handful has been cruising so far this fall.

The remaining four—Iamaleava, Moses, Hunter, and Gabriel—are all in bespoke situations. Let’s go case by case.

Tennessee beat #15 Oklahoma this past Saturday, 25-15. It wasn’t an incredible performance from Iamaleava, who was 13/21 with 194 yards and 1 touchdown (that touchdown did come on quite a nice 66-yard completion to Dont’e Thornton Jr., though). The Volunteers have a bye this week. They then play unranked Arkansas in Week 6, unranked Florida in Week 7, and #4 Alabama in Week 8. That game versus the Crimson Tide—in Knoxville—will likely be a telling trial for Iamaleava.

Miller Moss is the only one of these players coming out of a loss this weekend. USC lost to Michigan in a gripping Big House showdown. The lead alternated for most of the game before the Wolverines scored a fourth-and-goal touchdown with less than a minute left to win it. Moss was 28/51, not a great completion rate, but still threw for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw an interception and was sacked thrice. It was a statistically scattered game for Moss, but his average of 296 yards per game stands out indubitably. The only currently ranked opponent the Trojans are still due to face this fall is #9 Penn State on October 12.

The thing about Travis Hunter is that, as Heisman voter Nicole Auerbach put it last Thursday, “He’s one of the best receivers and one of the best cornerbacks in the country at the same time.” You read that right; #12 plays both offense and defense for the Buffs. During Colorado’s first three games, Hunter played 129, 126, and 123 snaps against North Dakota State, Nebraska, and Colorado State, respectively. “The Buffs basically just keep him on the field at all times,” Auerbach wrote. Hunter has been an incredibly effective dual threat this season. This Saturday made that clear as day. Hunter had 7 receptions for 130 yards on offense while completing three tackles and forcing a goal-line fumble to complete Colorado’s overtime win over Baylor. It’s just about unprecedented what Hunter is doing, and that should put him in the Heisman conversation, no question.

Let us now turn to the Duck in the race, quarterback Dillon Gabriel. UO had a bye this week, so they remain undefeated at 3-0. During the Week 3 I-5 matchup against Oregon State, Dillon Gabriel led the Ducks to a commanding 49-14 win in which the team looked strong across the board. Next Saturday, the Ducks fly south to play UCLA. The Bruins are 1-2 after their loss to LSU. This will allow UO to make another statement and silence the Rose Bowl crowd. Let’s hope Gabriel can get in some impressive stats while leading the way.

Then, beginning with Michigan State on October 4, the Ducks play a half-dozen consecutive Big Ten opponents for the bulk of the season, which will likely be the most telling. It will be interesting how UO will (or won’t) measure up to powerhouse programs—such as #3 Ohio State (October 12), #24 Illinois (October 26), and Wisconsin (November 16)—whom they did not often oppose while in the Pac-12.

The next few months will force the Ducks to show what they’re made of and how well they can compete against the longstanding heft of Midwestern teams. It could be a wake-up call for the team in Eugene or for the rest of the country.

There remains ample time this fall for one of about a dozen stars to wow voters and end up with the hallowed Heisman trophy. It would surely be nice if that sacred, arm-outstretched piece of bronze made a trip to Eugene.