It is amusing that two coaches from the same game were fired within hours of last Saturday’s final gun at College Station, Texas. Even more peculiar is that Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher had just won his game by 41 points, and still, admins were willing to pay his $75,000,000 buyout.
That’s how eager they were to rid themselves of Fisher.
The other fired coach from that same game was Zach Arnett of Mississippi State. An interim coach is rarely fired before the end of a season, and even more unexpected because it was Arnett who salvaged the program after the sudden death of Mike Leach.
Death and demise. Isn’t life grand? But what can we do? Death is part of life.
When I go, I want it to be like my Uncle Rick, who died peacefully in his sleep and not like all the screaming passengers in his car.
Alas, we move on.
Predictions for PAC-12 northwest games . . .
[All rankings shown below are from my savvygameline prediction system, not those of wire services, coaches polls, or other publications.]
#7 Washington [9-0] at #15 Oregon State [8-2]
Usually, experts cite a team with two more losses than its conference opponent as a solid underdog, but not this week when Washington takes on Oregon State. My savvygameline system and the bookmakers project this to be a very close game.
Oregon State’s style of play has put the Beavers in the top 25 nationally for rushing the football and in the top 25 for stopping the rush.
Washington cannot match those numbers, especially on defense, where UW ranks 91st for stopping opposing ball carriers.
Yes, the Huskies are undefeated, but they aren’t untouched. Four of their last six games have been one-possession wins, and the last three have seen the defense give up over 32 points per game.
Oregon State won’t match UW’s gaudy passing attack, but if the Beavers are as successful on the ground as expected, they won’t need to.
Washington won last year’s game 24-21 in Corvallis. Husky quarterback Michaell Penix Jr. threw the ball 52 times for nearly 300 yards but just one touchdown. Although Oregon State is considered a ball-possession team, the Huskies dominated as they had 76 snaps to Oregon State’s 59.
Washington gets the prediction advantage by a single point in the betting lines and my savvygameline system.
I think Oregon State wins by eight, and part of my conclusion is based on Washington seems to already have a spot in both the PAC-12 title game and the national playoff.
Oregon State is not locked up, so the desperation advantage will be on the Corvallis sideline.
If OSU wins this game, next week against Oregon, and the following week in the PAC-12 title game, then I can’t imagine the Beavers not getting a shot at the national playoff.
Colorado [4-6] at Washington State [4-6]
Between the two, Colorado and Washington have lost 12 of their last 13 games. Nonetheless, the winner of this game still has a chance to get to a bowl, so expect this to be a game of high intensity.
Despite the losses, Colorado has positive performance trends in my system. The Buffaloes are one of only four teams in FBS to retain positive lines while winning just one game since September. That tells me that CU is still dangerous.
It’s essential to remember that the average of Colorado’s last six losses is a mere six points despite playing USC, UCLA, Oregon State, and Arizona.
Overall, Washington State is competing at a high level, but Cougar running backs rank 125th in the nation for fumbling the ball.
I previewed last week’s WSU-Cal game as one of many fumbles, and indeed, there were eight total. Washington State did its part. Cougar backs fumbled four times.
There’s another troubling problem for Washington State because as bad as fumbling has been, the yards-per-carry average among running backs ranks 127th in the nation.
Even the passing attack raises questions because it is not the prolific long-ball system that offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle described in the preseason. That hasn’t happened. WSU ranks 81st in terms of yards per completion, and the notion of offensive coordinator scrutiny surfaces.
Arbuckle came to WSU with only two years of college coaching experience — total — so I wondered why head coach Jake Dickert hired him. There were plenty of other candidates with years of coordinator experience. Those questions seem even more valid now.
Colorado is as dangerous as they come, and this is do-or-die time for bowl eligibility. Coach Deion Sanders will have his Buffaloes ball-hawking because that is something they do very well, and he knows that will prey on the tender vulnerabilities of WSU rushers. The Buff defense is 19th in the nation for taking the ball from opposing running backs.
Is this the week Washington State holds onto the ball? Betting lines think so, as they favor WSU by five. My system says Cougs, 36-30.
#5 Oregon [9-1] at Arizona State [3-7]
The best player in college football is Oregon’s Bo Nix.
I know all about Jayden Daniels of LSU, but Daniels has had one spectacular season, whereas Nix has been elite from the very first day he stepped onto the Oregon campus.
Consider:
In his two seasons at Oregon, Nix has rushed for over 600 yards and 19 touchdowns while completing 552 of 735 passes (75% over two years) for 6728 yards, 58 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
If that’s not Heisman-worthy, somebody has money under the table.
Bo commands a passing attack that nets 339 yards per game, so he should do well against an Arizona State pass defense that ranks 95th in pass defense efficiency.
ASU has won two of its last three games, so the Sun Devils are getting the hang of winning under new coach Kenny Dillingham. One of those wins was against a team ranked going into the game, and the other was against a team ranked in the top 15 a few weeks before, so success is as real as it is recent.
ASU has 13 players on the injury list, and eight are on offense, so moving the ball against one of America’s premier defenses will be a monumental task.
My system is projecting a 41-20 win for the Ducks and expanded playing time for reserve quarterback Ty Thompson, who is an Arizona native and has been performing above expectations this season.
One final comment about Arizona State: Ray Anderson is out as Director of Athletics, and with a decent successor, ASU fans can expect to see their athletic programs rise.
In other PAC-12 games . . .
#19 Utah 30, Arizona 21
California 33, Stanford 31
USC 32, UCLA 28
Neither L.A. school could win a bowl game, and now, neither is nationally ranked.
They may be taking metro marketing away, but certainly not PAC-12 prestige.
You can see all 68 of my savvygameline predictions across the nation here.
On the season, my system is 538-186 in predicting winners. That is 1% better than betting lines. Savvy is now five games better in determining point spreads and an amazing 52 games better in projecting total game points.
