You don’t hear this too often about the Seattle Mariners: they’ve been one of the best offenses in baseball. Entering play Friday, they rank 12th in The Bigs in batting average(.247), second in on-base percentage(.340), ninth in slugging percentage(.415), second in stolen bases, and most shockingly, fourth in the league in home runs. Given how T-Mobile Park is notoriously hitter-unfriendly, these numbers should give Mariners fans across the Pacific Northwest reason for optimism–their one glaring flaw has been fixed. New hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, brought over from the Atlanta Braves, and Hall-of-Famer turned hitting coordinator Edgar Martinez’s new offensive philosophy have given the run support that one of the best pitching staffs in the league deserves. Houston’s weak, and the Angels are gonna Angel. A’s are not a threat yet, and the Rangers look dead in the water, while the M’s lead the division through the first six weeks. Book a playoff trip, fans think.
But not everything’s sunshine and rainbows in the Emerald City. Especially for one player, a show within The Show. Star center fielder Julio Rodríguez, affectionately known as “the J-Rod Show”, hasn’t been worth the price of admission so far. After going 2 for 5 Wednesday against the Athletics in Western Sacramento, Rodríguez is slashing .228/.328/.407 on the year with six home runs, 17 RBI, 25 runs scored, and 5 steals. For a player who looked like a future MVP candidate upon his arrival to the big league club, who quickly signed a long-term extension worth up to 400 million to become the face of the franchise, it’s a disappointing start that marks an alarming trend over the past few seasons.
OPS+ is an advanced statistic measuring OPS(on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) adjusted for the league and park factors, with 100 representing an average hitter. Since posting an impressive 147 in his All-Star rookie year, in the two full years since, he has had a 130 in 2023 (placing 4th in MVP voting) and 116 last season. As we’ve seen in the past, J-Rod has the undeniable talent to be one of the best position players in the Majors. So why the downward trajectory?
One area of concern is his timing on the fastball. For a pitch he sees literally more than half of the time, he’s not really doing the damage you would think. His average launch angle when he makes contact with one is 2.2 degrees–there’s no loft or elevation in his swing right now, which is supported by his career high 49% groundball rate. Rodríguez needs to show quicker pitch recognition to pull balls in the air for power, like he did in his inaugural season when he had a 7.3 pull percentage and a career high 13% barrel rate (a ball hit at least 98 MPH with a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees). But even more concerning is his tendency to chase out of the zone.
Since 2023, Rodríguez has chased more than 386 pitches outside of the zone–the fifth most in the league in that time. But of his 386-plus swings to get that slider ending up in the lefty batter’s box or that high cheese at the top of the zone, he only has 17 singles to show for it. And while his chase contact is a decent 54 percent, his whiff percentage is still something left to be desired, swinging and missing a third of the time. His pitching heat map tells quite a story: when he’s hunting for pitches in the heart of the plate, he’s a force of nature, but constantly chases pitches in locations that lead to outs.
Oddly enough, J-Rod’s walk percentage is way up this year at 10.2 percent(63rd percentile in the league). So while he’s not Juan Soto, he’s shown he’s capable of above-average discipline. If he can keep that elite eye he’s shown all season long, Rodríguez is the type of dynamic talent that can ascend with just a few knocks. Considering he just hit .333 with a homer, one run driven in, and two trips around the bases in a series against the second-place A’s, it seems like he’s already been making the necessary adjustments at the plate.
Mind you, even with his offensive deficiencies, Julio Rodríguez is a great baseball player. In just over 36 games this year, he’s already amassed 1.4 fWAR(Fangraph’s version of the Wins Above Replacement metric). His baserunning and defense up the middle are considered elite, ranking in the 85th and 98th percentile, respectively. So, it’s not like he’s a fringe player who had an outlier offensive year. The tools are there, but so are his ups and downs at the dish. With a huge series on tap against the middling Toronto Blue Jays this weekend, there’s hope the J-Rod Show can become the hottest act in the business again.
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