Are the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers ready for their first road games of the 2025 season?
My prediction system (savvygameline.com) was 70-13 in predicting winners last week, and it is 149-29 for the season, so let’s see what it has in store this week.
Oregon State (0-2) at #19 Texas Tech (2-0)
Texas Tech averages more than one point per minute and puts up over 600 yards per game. Senior quarterback Behren Morton is completing more than 74% of his passes, and he has thrown seven touchdowns without once throwing an interception.
A dynamic set of running backs is ranked in the top five for yards per carry.
They find a lot of success because the TTU offensive line is one of the best. That line has yet to give up a sack; it ranks in the top three for fewest tackles-for-loss allowed and for getting blocking for running backs.
The Red Raider OL should continue to sparkle against an Oregon State defense that is 123rd for giving up yards on the ground and, after two hours of game time, has yet to come up with a sack.
But the problem isn’t just defense. Oregon State has severely malfunctioned at all levels except for offensive skill positions.
The offensive line ranks 108th for rush blocking and 88th for overall effectiveness. The defense ranks 123rd in stopping opposing running backs, 110th in getting tackles for loss, dead last in getting sacks, and 118th in allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete passes.
I personally think it is premature to think head coach Trent Bray should be on a hot seat, but it might be a good idea to brush the dust off the switch. If he’s feeling stressed, then I have an encouraging word for him: Stress isn’t all that bad. After all, the word “stressed” is just “desserts” spelled backwards.
Last week, much was made about Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy taunting the Oregon Ducks and their multi-million dollar NIL roster.
That seemed odd to me. Why did Gundy pick on a team halfway across the country when Texas Tech is just across his state border, and it spent more on NIL than Oregon?
How much more?
Well, Ohio State won the national championship last season after spending $25 million in NIL.
Oregon won the Big 10 after spending $40 million.
Texas Tech spent $55 million.
Anyone who thinks life is unfair is right. It would be as unreasonable for Gundy to expect NIL fairness because he is a long-tenured coach as it would be for a vegetarian to expect fairness from an Angus bull.
Indeed, Texas Tech and Oregon have spent their way to prime time. That’s just the way it is in today’s college football.
All of that Texas Tech NIL money will pay dividends this week against Oregon State.
Prediction experts say Texas Tech will win by 23.5 points.
My Savvygameline.com prediction system predicts a score of Texas Tech 48, Oregon State 14.
#2 Oregon (2-0) at Northwestern (1-1)
Oregon has the highest performance and trend lines on my system than any team in America. That explains why my system ranks Oregon #2 while leading ranking services have the Ducks lower.
Doubts about UO quarterback Dante Moore being able to fill the shoes of some fantastic predecessors should soothe now that he is completing passes with better than 77% accuracy (similar to Box Nix and Dillon Gabriel), and he has yet to throw an interception in eight quarters of play.
Moore should excel this week because Northwestern’s defense has not yet been able to put decent pressure on quarterbacks.
The Oregon offense ranks in the top five for average yards per rush (both team and individual [Whittington]), most rushing touchdowns by one running back (Jordan Davison), not allowing tackles for loss, not allowing sacks, and average points per game.
Oregon running backs will feast on a Northwestern rush defense that is in the bottom 15 of the FBS.
Although the Duck defensive secondary has flourished, my Savvy system cites several areas of concern that are not common for elite teams.
Defending the rush is better (ranked 34th) than last year, but it still needs to improve. Oregon is 41st for getting sacks, 72nd for allowing completions, and 73rd in getting tackles for loss.
The opponent this week is Northwestern, a solid outfit that struggles with turnovers (133rd nationally) and has a weak defensive front.
Northwestern is led by senior quarterback Preston Stone, who transferred in from SMU after losing the starting position. In his first game at Northwestern, Stone was intercepted four times by Tulane while failing to throw a touchdown pass.
Last week against Western Illinois, he completed 72% of his passes for three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Stone has talent, but against strong opponents such as Oklahoma, TCU, and Tulane, he struggles to complete more than 55% of his passes, and he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
This week, he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks first in the nation for fewest touchdown passes allowed and 12th for interceptions.
The Wildcats have a solid offensive line and a rush attack that is in the top one-third of FBS behind senior Cam Porter, who averages over 7.6 yards per touch. The ‘Cats can control the clock and grind on the ground. That usually results in points, yet Northwestern is averaging less than 22 points per game.
Why?
Well, the ‘Cats are 111th for fumbling and 134th for throwing interceptions. When a team fails in both of those, I suspect it might be time to review the offensive coaches.
Another concern for Northwestern is fan attendance.
In their first three home games last year, NWU averaged less than 12,000 fans.
Last week against Western Illinois, the attendance was a mere 9,647. That number will increase to about 30,000 for the Ducks, but what happens when the glitzy lemon-and-lime Ducksters leave town?
Betting lines say Oregon will win 27.5.
Savvygameline.com says Oregon will win 42-13.
To see all 70 college football predictions this week, please visit savvygameline.com. It’s all for free, all for fun, all for you. No money. No ads. No emails. No registration. No kidding. This is for fun. It’s not a business.
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