Both of Oregon’s FBS teams are in action this week. Oregon is playing to reach the top spot in college football, while Oregon State is playing to avoid falling to dead last.
Oregon’s Ducks fly east for an early matchup against Big Ten contender Penn State. Both teams are ranked in the top five, making this the inarguable game of the week.
Oregon State will host Houston, led by program-building head coach Will Fritz.
What are the chances that either or both win?
My savvygameline.com predictions system is 250-59 this season in picking winners and 13 games better in setting point spreads, so let’s see what it projects for these games.
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Houston (3-0) at Oregon State (0-4)
Two years ago, Oregon State’s offense averaged 32 points per game and rushed for nearly 5 yards per carry.
Today, those numbers have been cut almost precisely in half.
The Beavers have lost a lot of talent through graduation and the transfer portal. Still, it is also clear that coaches are tasked with replenishing the storehouse, and that has not happened, especially along the offensive line.
OSU has a pool of capable running backs. The problem is that the Beaver bulwarks up front rank a lowly 131st in FBS for run blocking. Compare that to Houston’s defense, which ranks 31st for stopping the run.
It is unlikely that the Beavers will have much success on the ground, which means Beaver quarterback Malik Murphy will once again have to carry the offensive load.
The problem with that is that Houston’s defense puts quarterbacks under pressure, then picks off their passes. UH ranks fourth in the nation for most interceptions. The Cougars already have five defensive backs with at least one. Houston is in the top one-third of college football in terms of sacks, so Murphy is probably looking at a long day.
On the other sideline, UH quarterback Conner Weigman is having his best year ever. The former Texas A&M three-year player is completing more than 64% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception.
His offensive line is below average (Savvy-ranked 80th), but Weigman is a dual threat who is second on the team for most rushing yards. When Weigman takes off, expect him to get serious yardage.
Houston has not turned the ball over at all this season and ranks #1 for fewest turnovers. Oregon State ranks 118th. Even if OSU wins the turnover difference, you can’t do anything with that advantage if your offense cannot move the ball.
Houston can move the ball. The Cougars have an average run game behind an offensive line that is okay, but not great. However, that rush attack will have its best game of the season because Oregon State’s rush defense ranks 103rd.
Houston hasn’t had a winning season since 2022, but it has risen to a bowl contender under coach Will Fritz, who is one of the most prolific program builders in the nation.
When Georgia State crossed from FCS to FBS, Fritz took the Eagles to the Conference USA championship and a 17-7 record in two seasons.
After two seasons, he transferred to Tulane, a program that had won just three games the previous year. By his third season, he had won the AAC and appeared in the first of four bowl games in five seasons. In 2022, the Green Wave went to the national playoff, where they defeated Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
Oregon State coaches are not even halfway through their second season, so perhaps they deserve more time to develop. In the interim, they must play a Houston team with a coach who has proven he knows how to build winners.
The Fritz scheme is to run the football twice as much as passing it. That is what UH does, and it will do that and perhaps more against an Oregon State defense that is unlikely to stop it.
Expert analysts have set the spread at two possessions. Savvygameline.com says Houston will prevail, 35-14.
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#3 Oregon (4-0) at #4 Penn State (3-0)
A friend has been wringing his hands all season about Oregon traveling east to play Penn State. He commented, “Penn State came within one-half of a second of beating us in Eugene last year. How are we going to win this year if we have to travel across the country and play at 9 a.m.?”
It’s a good question that comes with some good answers.
We can start with quarterback Drew Allar, whose slide at the end of last year’s game was one-half second too late for PSU to make a game-winning field goal.
Allar was not convinced he would return to the Lions this season, but $ 5 million in NIL money and tons of projections that he would be the star of stars convinced him to give it one more year.
Unfortunately, his stardom hasn’t blossomed. He hasn’t lived up to expectations. His passing accuracy has decreased despite launching shorter passes than a year ago. He showed some ability to run last season, but he takes off only half as much in 2025 and for less yardage per attempt.
He’s not passing the ball longer or better, nor is he running more or for longer distances.
Meanwhile, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has Duck fans nodding their heads because he is among the top five most accurate passers, despite average distances being 40% longer than Allar’s. Moore has proven that his ability to run must be dealt with. Like his passing advantages over Allar, Moore runs more often and for greater yardage.
Penn State has a terrific offensive line that gives 220-pound running back Kaytron Allen plenty of room to get to the second level. Penn State will need its ground game to work because the advantages through the air favor Oregon.
Oregon’s ground game has been even better than Penn State’s, and the UO offensive line is the third-best of all OLs in college football.
The question for the Ducks—and the opportunity for Penn State—is defense.
Oregon is only slightly better than average in stopping the rush, and it ranks a dismal 112th for trapping running backs in the backfield.
Of more concern is Oregon’s inability to bring pressure. While Penn State’s defense ranks in the top 20 for getting to ball carriers and quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage, Oregon’s combined pressure ranking (vs run and pass) ranks 87th.
The Lions have stopped 50% of their opponents in the red zone. Oregon has yet to get a red zone stop.
Bookmakers have set PSU as a three-point favorite at just 52.5 total game points.
Indeed, Penn State has posted some statistical advantages, but my Savvy Index shows trend lines for Oregon that are increasingly favorable, while Penn State’s are headed in the opposite direction. It is the divergence of those trend lines that causes savvygameline.com to predict Oregon will win 33-24.
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