Prior to the Oregon State Beavers’ matchup with the University of Nevada, the odds looked very different.
The Beavers were expected to defeat the Wolf Pack, who had a 2-4 record compared to Oregon State’s 4-2 record. While Nevada had some difficult matchups prior to playing the Beavers, such as SMU and Minnesota, it also had a runaway win against Eastern Washington. Despite Oregon State being up by three points going into the fourth quarter, the Wolf Pack had a commanding 15 minutes, scoring 21 points to the Beavers’ 13 and notching Oregon State’s second loss of the season.
At the beginning of the season, predicting the Beavers would end in a 9-3 record seemed likely, coming into a different conference with a team that was a worthy contender in the Pac-12. However, with two losses already and matchups with Berkley and San Jose State to come, that 9-3 prediction seems a little generous.
Oregon State has an even more difficult matchup than Nevada ahead, facing the University of Nevada Las Vegas at home this weekend. The Rebels are 5-1, with their only loss to Syracuse in overtime. They are currently at the top of the Mountain West conference with Boise State and have commanding victories over teams like Fresno State, Utah State, and Kansas.
UNLV Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has had a stellar season thus far, throwing only one interception and 642 yards. His past game against the Aggies wasn’t his best, getting sacked four times and only completing 65% of his passes, but his other games speak for themselves. Rebels wide receiver Ricky White has had a solid start to the season, spearheading the offense through every game with eight touchdowns and 526 yards. On the defensive end, linebacker Jackson Woodard has stood out with 31 tackles, four defensive interceptions, and three sacks.
UNLV has looked good this season and isn’t expected to stop looking good against Oregon State. As it currently stands, the Rebels are favored in Corvallis despite this game being the Beavers’ homecoming matchup and their return to Reser Stadium after their tough loss to the Wolf Pack.
Oregon State quarterback Gevani McCoy has more yards than Williams by a landslide, tallying over 1000 thus far. However, Williams has only played in three games compared to McCoy, who has played the whole season. Despite McCoy’s greater yardage, his completion rate is nearly 10% less than Williams, and his greater playtime has welcomed more mistakes, as he has thrown five interceptions thus far.
McCoy has relied on running back Anthony Hankerson for most receptions this season. Hankerson has 639 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, taking on the brunt of the Beavers’ offense and driving them to their four wins on the season. Oregon State running back Jam Griffin’s momentum has definitely slowed down as the season has gone on. If the BEavers can reclaim that momentum from Griffin, they could have a more lethal offense. However, if Griffin continues on this downward trajectory, it will be more similar, and UNLV could capitalize on Oregon State’s offensive lapses.
The Beavers’ biggest deficit in their loss to Nevada last week was their interceptions. McCoy has thrown five interceptions on the season — four of which came against the Wolf Pack. However, with this reality behind it, Oregon State should learn from its lessons, and the offense should come into its game with the Rebels more connected and ready to play.
Before the matchup with Nevada, the Beavers’ defensive unit was seen as solid. However, after giving up 353 yards against the Wolf Pack — part of what brought Nevada the win — Oregon State’s defense knows it needs to shape up in preparation for UNLV.
The Rebels are a 6.5-point favorite over the Beavers, who, before the season, were the favorite over UNLV. But the interception that turned into a victory for Nevada and how close the game was in the first place was enough to tip the scales in the Rebels’ favor.
It’s likely that against Las Vegas, Oregon State will need more than luck to win. It’s clear the change to the new conference, new coach, and new players isn’t going as well as it had hoped, and as a result, its record is tarnished. With Hankerson, McCoy, Griffin, and the defensive core at their best, UNLV should be worried. But that’s a lot of pieces that need to be working perfectly, and if the past few weeks have been any indicator, it’s likely at least one piece to the puzzle will be missing, and the Rebels will pull off the victory.
Prediction: UNLV 35, OSU 30
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