Washington State finished 2023 losing seven of its last eight games followed by an exodus of talent through the transfer portal.
Both of the Cougars’ top quarterbacks, Cam Ward and Emmett Brown, hit the transfer portal. Ward went to Miami (FL), and Brown went to San Jose State. Spectacular receiver Josh Kelly transferred to Texas Tech, and two edge rushers were drafted into the NFL.
As if those departures weren’t enough, athletic director Patrick Chun left for Seattle, where he will lead archrival Washington.
Oh, and one more thing: The PAC-12 also left.
After that 4-0 start, expert ranking services pushed Washington State into their top 15.
My system (savvygameline.com) didn’t agree with those high rankings last year and didn’t agree with the lower rankings many experts project for the 2024 season.
In fact, the Savvy system projects Washington State as a borderline bowl team in 2024, and we’ll get to the reasons why in a bit.
Indeed, Ward’s loss will be felt. Consider that Washington State ran 852 plays from scrimmage last year, and Ward either ran or passed on an astounding 77% of them! No team in the country relied more on one player than the Cougars relied on Cameron Ward.
His replacement this season is expected to be sophomore John Mateer, who spurned offers from UCLA to sign with Washington State in 2022. Mateer is a capable passer and every bit as good a runner as Ward.
Although he played fewer than 40 snaps at Washington State last season, his passing accuracy and yards per rush both exceeded those of Ward, enough for head coach Jake Dickert to suggest that Mateer may be able to execute the Cougar offense even better.
Also in the Cougar quarterback room is Zevi Eckhaus, who was a national finalist for the Walter Payton Award (the equivalent of the Heisman for FCS teams) at Bryant. Eckhaus has received accolades from Washington State coaches for his cool, calm, and studied leadership.
Although the transfer portal lured many talented players away, it also returned a few, led by former four-star Oregon receiver Kris Hutson. Pairing him with Kyle Williams’s return will likely produce more than 2000 yards between the two.
Although Nakia Watson, the leading rusher, graduated, two other experienced running backs returned. Unfortunately, no running back in the system rushed for more than 321 yards last year, and neither of the returners surpassed 150 yards. In addition, they led a group of WSU ball carriers that lost 12 fumbles in 2023.
Washington State doesn’t need much yardage from its ball carriers, but it does need them to hold onto the ball.
A bigger problem for the Cougars might also be their biggest opportunity. That problem is the offensive line, which has been dismal for the past two seasons.
Last year, that line gave up 38 sacks, 75 tackles for loss, and 91 pressures. My Savvy system ranked the WSU offensive line 122nd in the nation last year.
There are reasons to believe that this year’s OL will be better.
Returning to left tackle is 6’7″, 323-pound Esa Pole, who came to the Cougars last year after just two years of playing football. Pole immediately moved to the coveted left tackle position, where he dominated opponents and became a tough, vocal leader.
Also returning is a very good center in three-year starter Konner Gomness and rising right tackle Fa’alili Fa’amoe.
If Washington State can solidify the play of its offensive guards, the OL group will at least become competitive.
However, it’s apparent there is much work yet to be done after the Spring game, which showed too many quarterback sacks and backfield pressures that led to three interceptions. The OL unit is adjusting to a new scheme that will be beneficial once fully installed.
On the defensive side, Washington State’s scoring defense went from 22.9 ppg in 2022 to 28.1 in 2023 under new defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding. At the same time, it gave fewer yards per play and finished in about the middle of the FBS pack against a formidable schedule.
Schmedding must replace two outstanding edge rushers and two stellar defensive backs. Akron transfer Tyson Durant, a fifth-year senior who had 98 tackles, is the answer the Cougars were looking for at one safety position.
Also, keep an eye on edge rusher Syrus Webster, who posted 65 tackles, 10.5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles in his two years at Utah Tech.
My Savvy projections indicate that defensive results will be better in 2024, although not by a lot.
Despite last season’s dramatic descent and the loss of some talented starters on both sides of the ball, my Savvy system projects that Washington State will win more games this season and approach bowl eligibility.
Here are some reasons why:
1. Early-enroll running back Wayshawn Parker
The Cougars finally have the answer they need in the backfield. Pure freshman Wayshawn Parker is fast and shifty, and he actually holds onto the ball. He spurned offers from programs like Washington, enrolled early at WSU, and electrified coaches in the Spring game with two 40+ yard plays.
2. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle
Last year at this time, I was critical of Arbuckle’s decision to move WSU into a long-ball passing scheme. I questioned how the OL would block for longer passes when it had failed so badly in 2022, blocking for moderate passes. As expected, it didn’t. Arbuckle is now headed the other way, moving the offense to more one-step drops and fades. That change will help the offensive line.
3. Injuries
WSU had a ton of injuries last year. It is not likely the Cougars will face as many this season.
4. The schedule
All seven of WSU’s losses were against PAC-12 teams last year. All seven of those opponents have moved on, and the Cougars face a much easier time this year.
5. Staff continuity
Dickert and both of his coordinators return to Washington State for the 2024 season, whereas eight of the Cougars’ opponents have new head coaches.
Below is a preview of how my savvygameline.com system sees Washington State games if those games were played today. To see savvygameline preseason rankings for all FBS teams as they stand today, click here.
Portland State and Washington State: WSU by 39 1-0)
Texas Tech at Washington State: Texas Tech by 15.5 (1-1)
Washington State at Washington*: Washington State by 18 (2-1)
San Jose State* at Washington State: Washington State by 1 (3-1)
Washington State at Boise State*: Boise State by 13 (3-2)
Washington State at Fresno State: Fresno State by 16 (3-3)
Hawai’i at Washington State: Washington State by 10 (4-3)
Washington State at San Diego State*: San Diego State by 8 (4-4)
Utah State* at Washington State: Washington State by 13 (5-4) [Utah State is a hot mess right now]
Washington State at New Mexico*: Washington State by 8 (6-4)
Washington State at Oregon State*: Oregon State by 11 (6-5)
Wyoming* at Washington State: Wyoming by 6 (6-6)
* denotes new head coach this year
