Throughout the college football season, I give my just-for-fun picks, but I’m competitive, so I do some research.
I’m off to a 58-15 start in my fearless picks this year. Last season I got 70% right.
I went 6-4 a week ago, missing on UNLV, BYU, UCLA, and Fresno State.
This week I’m making picks for the following games:
– NC State at Stanford
– Oregon at Illinois
– BYU at UCF
– Michigan State at UCLA
– Kansas State at Arizona State
– Boise State at Washington State
– USC at Wisconsin
– Iowa State at Arizona
– North Dakota State at New Mexico
– Houston at Utah
Sit back and chill.
Let’s get on to the picks!
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NC State at Stanford
Friday, October 23
7:30 PM PT, ESPN
NC State’s season has started perplexing. Wake Forest beat them handily a week ago, but the Wolfpack defeated Louisville the week prior.
Stanford beat Elon a week ago, but the two weeks prior they got mallywhooped by the Demon Deacons and Notre Dame. The biggest key in this matchup is which Cardinal offense shows up.
In the Tree’s three wins, they’ve scored at least 34 points; in their four losses, they’ve scored just 7 points. Their offensive woes usually show up against good defenses, which should give them confidence in this contest.
The Pack rank 104th nationally in points allowed per game. If Micah Ford continues to show out, it would provide balance for Stanford’s offense.
Power Four competition has limited the Cardinal on the ground, but Ford finished with 179 yards, four touchdowns, and averaged 9.4 yards per carry against the Phoenix. Davis Warren also must protect his defense by converting third downs in this game.
The Tree rank 117th nationally in third-down conversion percentage. This is vital because the Wolfpack feature a solid signal caller in CJ Bailey. State’s offense is a top-50 scoring unit and can strike when given the opportunity.
Even with Duke Scott injured, the Pack should have enough offense to cut some trees.
NC State 31, Stanford 24
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Oregon at Illinois
Saturday, October 24
12:00 PM PT, BTN
Oregon enters this contest in the middle of an odd stretch. The Ducks almost lost to Nebraska last week, and fell to UCLA the week before. Since Dante Moore’s injury, the offense is in a shaky spot.
Illinois beat Michigan State in overtime two weeks ago, and lost to Purdue the week prior. They’re coming off a bye, which could matter if this game stays close.
The key to this contest is whether UO is using its offensive talent. Even with Moore’s injury, they’re loaded. Dylan Raiola should also be more confident this week, after leading a comeback win against his old team.
Another key player to watch is Fighting Illini quarterback Katin Houser. He’s played well so far, throwing for 1,440 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
He struggled against the Spartans, so he’ll be ready to show his stuff. His two favorite targets are wideouts, Collin Dixon and Hudson Clement. They’ve combined for 1,012 yards, but Dixon leads the team with nine touchdown receptions.
Raiola’s newfound freedom shines here, and Oregon is poppin’ bottles.
Oregon 42, Illinois 17
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No. 2 BYU at UCF
Saturday, October 24
12:30 PM PT, FOX
What Kalani Sitake has done at BYU is in another stratosphere. Beating Notre Dame is arguably the biggest win in Cougars history, and it makes them a frontrunner for the College Football Playoff.
They’re also doing this without LJ Martin, arguably their best offensive player.
UCF enters this contest on a two-game losing streak. Both of their losses came against ranked opponents. Their last dub came against TCU.
BYU’s key is to fight human nature. They’ll feel a letdown after their epic victory. They need to protect the ball, limit penalties, and limit explosive plays on defense.
The Knights are missing their starting quarterback, Alonza Barnett III, which should bode well for BYU’s defense. Keyone Jenkins is the backup; he’s done well so far, but his confidence may be hurt after two straight losses.
Halfback Duke Watson is probably their best offensive player. UCF features a Top 40 defense nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, but at some point the Cougs’ line should weigh on them.
Bear Bachmeier also needs to stay poised after winning the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week. BYU’s offensive line and defense will eventually grind the Knights to a halt.
The Cougars are the threshold.
BYU 28, UCF 14
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Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA
Saturday, October 24
12:30 PM PT, CBS
Michigan State enters this matchup off a close loss against Northwestern and a five-game losing streak. The program has felt lost since Mark Dantonio’s departure earlier this decade.
UCLA is looking for a better performance this week, but after a crucial win over Wisconsin. They continue to represent the undefeated lifestyle. The key for the Bruins is for Ty Dieffenbach to develop more consistency.
It feels improbable that MSU wins this matchup, unless Dieffenbach throws them a few duds. Against the Badgers, his stat line looked ugly, but he completed two crucial passes on a game-sealing touchdown drive, which started inside their own red zone.
If Dieffenbach makes a few early throws, it will put heavy pressure on a Michigan State defense that ranks outside the top 80 in most categories.
The Spartans offense is also struggling in 2026, ranking 114th nationally in points scored per outing.
While Wayne Knight and UCLA’s offense get most of the love, their defense ranks 11th in adjusted opponent EPA per play. In their last three contests, they’ve only allowed 25 combined points.
If the Bruins were gonna get upset, it would’ve been last week.
The Rose Bowl pricks Michigan State.
UCLA 35, Michigan State 24
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Kansas State at Arizona State
Saturday, October 24
12:45 PM PT, ESPN2
This contest feels like an early-season Big 12 elimination game. Kansas State enters this matchup after beating Kansas a week ago. They lost their previous two games against Houston and Cincinnati.
Arizona State enters this contest after Texas Tech rolled over them last Saturday, following a win over Hawaii the week before. The key to this contest is whoever steps up at signal caller for either squad.
The Wildcats may be without their starter, Avery Johnson. Jacob Knuth would likely get the nod if he’s unavailable.
For the Sun Devils, Mikey Keene is expected to take over for Cutter Boley at starting quarterback. Throughout his collegiate career, Keene’s been a quality quarterback. He could take ASU places.
KSU boasts the sixth-best rushing attack nationally in yards per game, but Johnson’s injury may determine how effective it is. He leads Kansas State with 426 rushing yards.
The halfback duo of Joe Jackson and Rodney Fields Jr. are also effective, with 740 combined yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. Arizona State counters with their talented receiving core.
Reed Harris is an absolute devil, leading the team in most receiving categories with 41 receptions, 653 yards, and eight touchdowns. This game is iffy, like Johnson’s health.
Party up Tempe.
Arizona State 28, Kansas State 21
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No. 21 Boise State at Washington State
Saturday, October 24
3:00 PM PT, USA Network
Boise State enters this matchup off a bye, having comfortably defeated Fresno State two weeks ago.
Washington State enters the contest in a bad spot, after Oregon State throttled the Cougs last week. And the only team they’ve beaten this year is Duquesne.
The Broncos’ key in this matchup is connecting on a few deep passes. BSU is already the better team by a mile, but if they connect on a couple of explosives, this game should end quickly.
Boise State would also benefit from getting Rasean Jones a few extra touches. The Bronco offense ranks 85th in passing yards per game, but that is nitpicky given their rushing attack. Still, they’ll need to score points to beat Oregon State later this season.
WSU looks like a first-year coach is running the show. Kirby Moore’s playcalling felt timid against the Beavers.
They kicked a field goal from the Oregon State 1-yard line and punted twice on fourth-and-short, giving OSU two immediate touchdowns.
This is Moore’s first blunderish moment as coach, but the 1-6 start isn’t earning him extra brownie points.
Flipping the state, the Cougs probably found their starting quarterback in Owen Eshelman. Eshelman stepped up against Oregon State even though they lost.
But Boise State’s defense is mad, and mad is bad for Washington State.
Boise State 31, WSU 17
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16 USC at Wisconsin
Saturday, October 24
4:30 PM PT, NBC
This is another must-win game for USC. The Trojans host Ohio State and then travel to Bloomington for the next two weeks. They’re coming off a bye, and they previously beat Penn State on the road.
Wisconsin lost a tight Rose Bowl game and hopes to rectify it at home.
The game sets up as a potential upset because of the different styles. Jayden Maiava is going to score points, but the Badgers have a solid defense, ranking 19th nationally in opponent pass success rate.
The Trojan offense should score enough points to offset this, but another area of concern remains. SC’s rush defense is weak, and UW’s rushing attack may capitalize. The Trojans rank 95th in opponent rush success rate.
Flipping the culture, Wisconsin features a three-headed running trio led by quarterback Colton Joseph. He needs to play better than he did last week against UCLA, though, when he finished 6 of 16 for 66 passing yards and no passing touchdowns.
On the ground, he had 71 yards and one touchdown, but seven points isn’t gonna win most football games. If Trent Mosley, King Miller, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt can get a few chunk plays, it might sour Bucky’s vibe.
USC keeps trucking.
USC 35, Wisconsin 20
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Iowa State at No. 25 Arizona
Saturday, October 24
4:30 PM PT, ESPN2
Iowa State is coming off a bye, but previously lost to BYU. Before that, they won a crazy matchup in Morgantown. Arizona is also coming off a rest week, after knocking off Wild Virginia by the Madden mercy rule last time out.
One key to this matchup is how well Aiden Flora plays. Flora is the Cyclones’ best offensive player, and he’s gotta have a productive day if ISU wants to pull off the upset.
It won’t be easy, though; the Wildcats rank in the top 40 in running yards allowed per game. If UA can stop him, Iowa State will probably struggle to keep pace with Noah Fifita.
Flora has rushed for 680 rushing yards, six touchdowns, and 7.6 yards per carry in 2026. Jaylen Raynor is also playing well at quarterback, but beyond these two, the offense lacks firepower.
For Arizona, the Fifita show carries on.
The Cyclones have a solid pass defense, ranking 53rd in pass yards allowed per game, but that shouldn’t be a problem.
Fifita has torched pretty much every defense he’s seen in 2026, throwing for 1,756 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions on the year.
At some point, Tre Spivey’s injury will probably prove an issue for the Wildcats, but Isaiah Mizell shined against the Mountaineers.
UA continues to shine.
Arizona 38, Iowa State 21
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North Dakota State at New Mexico
Saturday, October 24
7:00 PM PT, CW
North Dakota State enters this contest after beating Nevada last week. They lost to UNLV the week before.
They’ll be looking to make a statement in the Mountain West. They probably feel they let the Rebels get away with the game.
New Mexico enters this matchup as a team that deserves more attention. The Lobos beat Hawaii a week ago and enter this matchup undefeated in the conference.
If the Lobos keep winning, they have a chance to make the College Football Playoff as the Group of Six representative.
One key factor in this game is whether UNM’s offense can score early. New Mexico relies heavily on its defense, and for good reason: it ranks first nationally in takeaways and points allowed per game.
If New Mexico gets off to a fast start, it’ll put pressure on Nathan Hayes, who underwhelmed in the Bison’ loss against UNLV, tossing three picks.
DJ Scott, Myles Mitchell, and Jackson Williams lead NDSU’s offense. At least one of them needs to break out. The Lobos’ best offensive player is halfback Scottre Humphrey. What a cool name; cool points equal dubs.
Jason Eck’s price tag keeps growing.
New Mexico 14, NDSU 13
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No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah
Saturday, October 24
7:15 PM PT, ESPN
This week’s marquee Big 12 showdown should prove wild. The Cougars enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak, three in a row in the conference. Houston’s only loss came against Texas Tech.
The Utes enter this game after a questionable win over Colorado, and they’ll hope the return home boosts their product on the field. Nonetheless, Utah is still undefeated entering this matchup.
The key to this contest is Conner Weigman, who also needs help from his offensive line, to protect against a dangerous U of U front. If he has time, he should find holes in the secondary.
Weigman has thrown for 1,771 yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions this year. But he needs to be careful. Statistically, Utah’s line is having a down year. The Utes rank 84th nationally in team sacks, but this is still Utah.
Flipping the scene, Devon Dampier leads a two-headed quarterback system for U of U.
Both teams have good quarterbacks, but this matchup may come down to big plays. The Cougars’ receiver-tight end combination of Amare Thomas and Patrick Overmyer will need to boss up on the road if they’re gonna pull off the upset.
This may be Houston’s shot, but Utah guns them down.
Utah 38, Houston 27
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