This column is presented by SuperWest Sports, a media partner of Oregon Sports News.
Wise is the bettor who consults Nick’s No-Nonsense Betting Tips before logging on to his sportsbook.
I may not always be perfect, but if you’ve followed my advice in the past, you’re already ahead of the game.
Every Friday in this space throughout the 2024 college football season, I give you my straight-up picks for games involving SuperWest teams.
For those who don’t know, that includes all the former Pac-12 teams, the Mountain West, plus BYU.
On rare occasions, when I blow a pick (or two), I evaluate my mistakes the following week, analyzing where I may have gone wrong.
Last week, I went a disappointing 4-6. So, where did I go wrong?
Just about everywhere. I mistakenly picked UW over Rutgers, Baylor over BYU, UCF over Colorado, Fresno State over UNLV, WSU over Boise State, and Utah over Arizona.
But enough about that. On the season, I’m still a solid 34-16, good for 68 percent.
I fully expect to be basking in the glory of success again this week—and you should, too.
As always, my selections come with incredibly accurate game scores and just enough commentary to keep me from eating too much popcorn here in the South Shore District of Seattle.
My bowl is almost empty, so let’s get on with the picks!
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Michigan State at Oregon
Friday, October 4
6:00 PM
This game feels tricky because Oregon is the better team, but these are the types of matchups the Ducks would sometimes lose in the Pac-12. Remember 2019, when a Justin Herbert-led Oregon team lost to Arizona State in Tempe?
The key to the matchup against Michigan State could be stopping Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles. Chiles hasn’t been anything special this year, but he can potentially be dangerous.
If Oregon can force him into some early turnovers, it could screw them from the beginning.
Conversely, MSU has a solid defense with 15 sacks to their name in the early season. The Spartans’ best players on defense are probably the linebacker tandem of Jordan Turner and Cal Haladay.
But this one is going to be about the Ducks. The early season scares against the Idaho schools seem to have been a good enough alarm clock before conference play.
Oregon by fourteen.
Oregon 38, Michigan State 24
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Syracuse at UNLV
Friday, October 4
6:00 PM
This is probably one of those games that Syracuse fans look at on their schedule and expect to win. Even though UNLV is the No. 25 team in the country, sometimes Mountain West teams get overlooked for no reason.
There are two keys for the Rebels in this matchup to get the dub. The first is the play of quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams. Williams stepped in and looked great in the drubbing of Fresno State, but it’s time to back it up.
The second key for UNLV is to stay grounded. The Rebels looked legit last week but Syracuse is led by former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been a revolution for the Orange.
The McCord-led offense boasts the third-best passing attack in the nation. They also feature an NFL-caliber tight end in Oronde Gadsden II.
UNLV has the 88th-best pass defense, which is misleading; they’ve got some players.
This matchup should come down to the Rebels’ secondary versus McCord.
“Rebel Rebel” protects Vegas.
UNLV 28, Syracuse 27
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Navy at Air Force
Saturday, Oct 5
9:00 AM
Navy actually throws the ball now, they’re also 5-0, and in theory could still be the group of five representative for the College Football Playoff.
The Midshipmen offense averages 46 points per game and is a top-ten unit nationally. This is a new reality.
Last Saturday, Navy’s signal caller Blake Horvath threw for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and completed 87 percent of his passes.
The Midshipmen can also run the ball effectively with their Wing-T variation offense.
For Air Force, all is bad right now. The Falcons desperately needed a win in Laramie last Saturday, but Wyoming killed their souls.
AFA’s offense has proven abysmal this year, which should’ve been expected, considering they have five new offensive linemen.
Air Force’s defense is decent, only allowing 21 points per game. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but can it really? Sometimes logic plays a role and Navy should win this pretty easily.
Midshipmen take the first leg.
Navy 23, Air Force 10
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Virginia Tech at Stanford
Saturday, Oct 5
12:30 PM
I’m a West Coast guy, but I’m not a fan of how Stanford has looked in the early season. The Cardinal pulled off a nice win against Syracuse, pulled off being the phrase, but it took a fourth down conversion to Elic Ayomanor to do so.
If Stanford wants to beat Virginia Tech, they’ll need signal-caller Ashton Daniels to play better. Daniels has had a few moments, but his stats don’t lie: He’s thrown for 633 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions.
The Hokies need to create their own energy. It will be a weird week for VT as they just lost to their rival in a historic game in front of a wild atmosphere. Stanford Stadium is a little quieter, ranking 68th in attendance last season.
The Hokies have tons of veteran experience on offense, but they haven’t found themselves yet. This game should be the search-and-rescue mission that the VT offense has been seeking.
The Hokies raid the farm.
Virginia Tech 30, Stanford 17
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USC at Minnesota
Saturday, October 5
4:30 PM
This game is iffy due to the questionable call that might have cost Minnesota a win last week. The Golden Gophers have a real gripe that they should’ve received their onside kick at the end of the game and probably beaten Michigan.
Against USC, they’ll need their quarterback, Max Brosmer, to hit a few big throws. Brosmer is a superb mid-range passer, but the Gophers will likely need a few explosives to beat the Trojans.
SC needs to score early and get Minnesota to question its defense. The Gophers only allow 13 points per game, but this could change quickly against an explosive Trojans offense that scores 34 points per outing.
USC also got off to a slow start against Wisconsin, which should wake them up to a potential upset. Miller Moss, Woody Marks, and Ja’Kobi Lane form a dangerous trio with the other SC receivers.
USC is too much, and they get the win, celebrating with some Lucy’s Burgers.
USC 42, Minnesota 31
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Colorado State at Oregon State
Saturday, October 5
3:30 PM
The most important factor in this contest is the return of Colorado State wide receiver Tory Horton. Horton is a top-tier receiver, and having him back in the lineup should open up the offense in numerous ways.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has struggled in the early season, but this should prove to be his turnaround game. Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown for 602 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions without Horton.
For Oregon State’s offense to thrive, quarterback Gevani McCoy must step up. The Rams have been solid against the run, which could force the Beavers to change up their one-dimensional style.
The Beavs have a Top 10 rushing attack, which averages 236 yards per game, while CSU dons a Top 40 unit against the rush. That’s a pretty big gap.
OSU gets it done at Reser.
Oregon State 31, Colorado 21
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Michigan at Washington
Saturday, October 5
4:30 PM
It is surprising that Washington is equal or favored in this contest. The Huskies have been pretty good in the early season, but the penalties have cost them two games they should’ve won.
The key to this matchup is simple: Can UW slow down Michigan’s dangerous ground attack? The Wolverines enter this game with the nation’s 29th-ranked rushing attack, averaging 195 yards per outing.
A smaller but second truth about this game should be Will Rogers’s play. Rogers has proven that he’s an elite college passer but not an elite winner. A win against the Blue and Maize could change his reputation.
Michigan cracked the Top 10 last week and has looked better under running quarterback Alex Orji. Though he’s still yet to find his passing game, his legs have done enough to keep winning.
The Huskies finally clean up their penalties but lack the confidence to win a big game.
UM finds sleep in Seattle.
Michigan 27, Washington 20
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Kansas at ASU
Saturday, October 5
5:00 PM
This could be one of those games that Arizona State should be wary about.
From a logical standpoint, The Sun Devils match up exceptionally well against Kansas. The Jayhawks enter Tempe with the No. 25-ranked rushing attack, while ASU has a top-15 rushing defense on the other side.
This bodes well because KU’s quarterback Jalon Daniels is struggling this year, having thrown for 805 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Arizona State needs to play NFL-style football on offense. They should try to put points on the board on every possession and play field position ball.
The Jayhawks, well, anyone, would not be ready to play in the expected 108-degree temperature at kickoff. Then again, KU is desperate as hell and will go to the lengths of hell to win this game.
But hell doesn’t like visitors, Sun Devils in a scorcher.
ASU 28, Kansas 21
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Miami at California
Saturday, October 5
7:30 PM
This may be a negative take, but Berkeley is lucky that College Gameday is coming to them. I understand that California has improved tenfold this season, but didn’t they just lose to a 1-4 Florida State?
It’s a pretty slow week in college football, so I guess I’ll just shut up.
The key to this matchup should prove to be whether the Golden Bears can slow down Miami halfback Damien Martinez. Wait what?
Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward enters this matchup with all the hype and leads the best passing attack offense in the nation, but if Cal can’t slow down Martinez, they’ll get floored.
Flipping fields, Cal’s signal caller Fernando Mendoza is probably unknown on the East Coast, but he’s for real. If the game stays close, Mendoza has the confidence to lead his team to victory.
If Jaydn Ott was 100 percent, the Bears might have a chance, but they’re not beating Miami after last week’s Fail Mary.
Canes win comfortably.
Miami 42, Cal 24
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Texas Tech at Arizona
Saturday, Oct 5
8:00 PM
If you’re a football fan, this matchup should be fun. Arizona is led by a dangerous quarterback-wide receiver combination in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan.
Texas Tech is led by a dangerous quarterback-running back combination in Behren Morton and Tahj Brooks. Brooks is the Red Raiders’ best player, and he has run for 551 yards, four touchdowns, and five yards per tote. Tech is undefeated with him in the lineup.
Will we see the Wildcats team that beat Utah last week or the guys who were annihilated by Kansas State?
The key to that question should come down to UA’s defense. They currently allow 22.5 points per game, but that number will rise if their defense doesn’t feel like stopping the run. They rank 84th nationally in this department.
Arizona’s starting to get their stella back, but a win against Utah with a backup signal-caller is still debatable.
Texas Tech will win this argument.
Texas Tech 45, Arizona 38
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