Wise is the bettor who consults Nick’s No-Nonsense Betting Tips before logging on to his sportsbook.
I may not always be perfect, but if you’ve followed my advice in the past, you’re money ahead.
Every Friday in this space throughout the 2024 college football season, I give you my straight-up picks for games involving SuperWest teams.
For those who don’t know, that includes all the former Pac-12 teams, the Mountain West, plus BYU.
On rare occasions, when I blow a pick (or two), I evaluate my mistakes the following week, analyzing where I may have gone wrong.
Last week, I went 7-3. So, where did I go wrong with those three losses?
Picking Washington again was just pure foolishness. The Dawgs don’t have it this year. And picking against BYU was just as foolish. Lessons learned.
Utah losing to Houston was a stunner, but it’s clear that the Utes are not the same team they were over the past three years, with or without Cam Rising.
Anyway, enough of that. I’m still a solid 61-29 on the season, good for 68 percent.
I fully expect to be basking in the glory of success again this week—and you should, too.
As always, my selections come with incredibly accurate game scores and just enough commentary to keep me from eating too many salted peanuts in the shell here in the South Shore District of Seattle.
The bag is almost empty, and the floor’s a mess, so let’s get on with the picks!
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San Diego State at Boise State
Friday, November 1
5:00 PM
Boise State continues their push to the College Football Playoff this week with a matchup against San Diego State.
The Aztecs are a decent team that’s still undefeated in the Mountain West. They almost beat Washington State last Saturday.
The key for San Diego State in this contest is getting their offense going early.
Danny O’Neil has proven aight this year, and he’ll need to shine if SDSU is going to pull off the upset. O’Neil has thrown for 1,240 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions in his freshman campaign.
The key for the Broncos: Do not overlook San Diego State. The Aztecs have improved tenfold in their last three outings, and they’re still playing for a conference championship.
Boise’s defense should be able to handle SDSU’s 104th-ranked scoring offense, but they don’t want to overlook “AztecFast.” They’re not gonna do that.
The Broncos keep dreaming.
Boise State 38, San Diego State 21
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Hawaii @ Fresno State
Saturday, November 2
4:00 PM
After a mid-season lull, Fresno State has won their last two outings against Nevada and San Jose State. They’re currently 5-3 and hold an outside shot at winning the Mountain West.
The key to the Bulldogs season has been their defense. The Bulldogs have held their last two opponents to a combined 31 points.
This has been paramount because of Malik Sherrod’s injury and Mikey Keene’s underperformance. Elijah Gilliam has also contributed 417 yards and six touchdowns.
Hawaii needs to prove that last week wasn’t a fluke. Brayden Schager, usually a throw-first guy, ran the ball for 120 yards and four touchdowns in the Rainbow Warriors victory over Nevada.
Schager ran for more yards last week than—well, than he has for in his life. It proved crucial in spurring a UH offense that ranks near the bottom of the nation in points scored per game.
Hawaii looked good last week, but Schager’s legs are bombed.
Fresno wins for Valley Joe.
Fresno State 28, Hawaii 17
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Colorado State @ Nevada
Saturday, November 2
5:00 PM
It feels odd to say, but Colorado State is 3-0 in the Mountain West and has a legitimate shot to make the conference championship game.
This is largely due to an easy MW schedule that misses Boise State and UNLV but screw it.
The Rams have also posted this record without their best player, Tory Horton. The superstar receiver is out for the season with a knee injury.
CSU lacks a clear identity, but its defense has stepped up in its last two games, allowing only a combined 19 points. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is its leader on offense, but he’s been a little off.
Nevada hit a low point with their blowout loss at Hawaii, but they were without starting quarterback Brendon Lewis.
Lewis should be back for this contest. He makes up a majority of the Wolf Pack’s offense. He’s thrown for 1,290 yards, ten touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s also added 551 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
He’s improved as a signal caller, but not Colin Kaepernick.
Rams wins close.
Colorado State 27, Nevada 24
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Stanford @ NC State
Saturday, November 2
9:00 AM
It would be nice to believe in Stanford, but the stats prove otherwise. The Cardinal enter this contest with the 120th-scoring offense in the nation.
They’re led by signal caller Ashton Daniels, who isn’t much of a leader. Daniels has thrown for 941 yards, six touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Stanford’s running game is also struggling, ranking 92nd in the FBS.
NC State is amid a quarterback change after starter Grayson McCall retired due to concerns about repeated concussions.
Backup signal caller CJ Bailey has performed well, but it’s different when you’re the guy. Bailey should consider targeting Justin Joly for the holiday spirit and because he’s dangerous.
Joly leads the Wolfpack with 447 yards receiving and two touchdowns. But even jolly ol’ St. Nick can’t help Stanford win football games.
State wins at home.
NC State 31, Stanford 24
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Arizona State @ Oklahoma State
Saturday, November 2
4:00 PM
The most important aspect of this contest is Sam Leavitt’s return.
Without Leavitt as quarterback, Arizona State’s offense scored 14 points against Cincinnati, which is down from their season average of 30 points per game.
The Sun Devils also feature halfback Cam Skattebo, who might be the most underrated back in the nation.
Skattebo is a tough runner and should be able to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s rush defense, which ranks 132nd nationally.
The Cowboys need to rely on Mike Gundy. Gundy has had 18 consecutive winning seasons, and this is a must-get if OSU is going to keep the streak alive.
The Cowboys are led by a duo on offense in halfback Ollie Gordon and wideout Brennan Presley. Presley’s proven solid all season, while Gordon has started to step up in the last two outings.
Arizona State’s probably the more complete team, but Oklahoma State wears orange, and “Orange Is the New Black.”
Cowboys Win!
Oklahoma State 35, Arizona State 31
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Arizona @ UCF
Saturday, November 2
12:30 PM
It’s hard to figure out why Arizona is so bad this season.
Even though they have a new head coach and lost a slew of players upon Jedd Fisch’s departure, they were still projected fifth in the Big 12.
Noah Fifita’s second-year slump continues, and that could be because defenses are figuring him out or because he no longer has Jacob Cowing.
Most signal callers could throw to Tetairoa McMillan and Cowing.
UCF needs to move the ball through the air. RJ Harvey is a talented running back, but they lack playmakers around him.
Jacurri Brown is explosive with his feet but has only thrown for 387 yards since becoming the starter. He lacks consistency with his arm.
The key to this contest should be whether the Wildcats can stop the run or whether the Golden Knights can stop the pass.
UCF has a bad record, but something feels off with Arizona right now.
The Knights win their first game since September.
UCF 28, 20 Arizona
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Oregon @ Michigan
Saturday, November 2
12:30 PM
Picking against Oregon this season probably isn’t the right move. The Ducks are a complete team on both sides of the ball and seem to be on a retribution mission after their two losses against Washington last year.
The key to this contest is whether UO can stop Michigan’s rushing attack.
The Wolverines feature the nation’s 52nd-best rushing attack, but it’s their bagel and butter because they’ve already cycled through three quarterbacks this season.
Halfback Kalel Mullings leads the attack with 694 yards and seven touchdowns.
Flipping the script, Michigan needs to limit Oregon’s explosive plays. The Ducks average 35 points per game, and it feels unlikely that the Wolverines will be able to keep this pace.
UM should be ok with UO scoring touchdowns as long as they’re long, well-earned drives. Michigan’s normally tough at home, but the quarterback fluctuations will prove too much to overcome.
The Ducks stay afloat.
Oregon 42, Michigan 27
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USC @ Washington
Saturday, November 2
4:30 PM
I’m annoyed by Washington right now. It first started with Will Rogers making untimely decisions, but now I question Jedd Fisch.
Fisch doesn’t seem to have the urgency needed on Montlake. Last week, the Huskies decided to punt the ball in the second half when they could’ve kept themselves in the game with a fourth-down attempt. This felt weak.
I understand this is his first year as Head Coach, but he doesn’t feel like he is the right fit for Seattle.
For USC, it’s whether or not they can win a game on the road. The Trojans are 0-3 on travel time with losses against Minnesota and Maryland.
That’s unacceptable by SC standards. I don’t care about your two-time zone stats.
SC’s key in this game is jumping out to an early lead. If the Trojans snag some early points, it’ll help their offense stay multidimensional, which would prove vital against Washington’s 23rd-ranked scoring defense.
F everything, I’m not picking UW again.
Trojans win on the road.
USC 35, Washington 30
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UCLA @ Nebraska
Saturday, November 2
12:30 PM
A lot of analysts were surprised by UCLA’s victory over Rutgers two weeks ago, but it made sense.
The Bruins boast a dominant run defense, which matched up well against Greg Schiano’s run-first style. Against Nebraska, they’ll need to be able to run the ball outside of Ethan Garbers.
Garbers had his best outing of the year two weeks ago, but he’s questionable in this contest. He isn’t a superstar, but he’s still their leader.
The signal-caller is pivotal for their offense because UCLA features the worst rushing attack in the nation.
Nebraska needs to keep things simple. The Cornhuskers are the better team, but they’re entering this contest on a two-game losing streak against reputable teams.
Nebraska relies on its top-20 scoring defense, and it should be able to take advantage of a porous Bruins offense. If Dylan Raiola limits his mistakes, the Cornhuskers’ defense should hold it down.
UCLA struggled to run against Hawaii and the land of the corn is known for physicality. I know that was corny.
Nebraska plows through the Bruins.
Nebraska 21, UCLA 14
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Air Force @ Army
Saturday, November 2
9:00 AM
This is a classic rivalry, and that’s about all I can say.
Anything can happen in a matchup of foes, but Air Force has struggled all year. Their only victory came against FCS Merrimack.
In this game, the key for the Falcons is to hope they can run the triple-option better than Army.
Air Force’s offense has proven pedestrian this season, but they still rank 31st nationally in rushing yards per game. The Falcons should also consider praying.
For Army, the key to this contest is to take AFA seriously. The Black Knights enter this matchup undefeated and still have a shot at the College Football Playoff.
Army also relies heavily on the triple option, but they’re actually pretty good at it. The Black Knights average 40 points per game, while the Falcons average 15.
The main difference between the two schemes is that Army can throw the ball effectively. The other difference between the two Academies is that Army is good at football while Air Force is not.
Army gets to 8-0.
Army 42, Air Force 17
