Your Seattle Seahawks stormed out of the gate in 2020, with Russell Wilson challenging the league, nay the world, to keep up with his ridiculous scoring pace. DK Metcalf looked like an alien from another planet, and a suddenly passing game friendly Chris Carson meant trouble for the rest of the league. Heading into their week six bye, Seattle was scorching defenses by way of “letting Russ cook”, the Seahawks were undefeated, and looked very much the part of an offensive juggernaut with their sights on being the top team in the NFC when January arrived. And that’s when their season peaked, though we did not know it at the time.
Fast forward three months, and nothing is what it seemed. The Seahawks came crashing back down to earth around mid-season, and the offense never fully recovered. They scrapped their way to a 12-4 record, narrowly won the division, and had to settle for the three seed in the NFC playoffs.
The defense came alive around the same time the offense entered its head scratching descent, thanks in large part to two critical transactions around the trade deadline – they traded for defensive end Carlos Dunlap, and signed free agent defensive tackle Damon Harrison. They also received multiple players back from injury, and simplified their scheme to let players “get home” more in their assignments, rather than complicating things with head scratching scheming that wasn’t paying off. The moves were nearly immediately seen as improvements on the field and in the box score, as Seattle turned into one of the toughest teams to score on in the final month of the season.
It was not to be, as a couple of key developments in the regular season finale (that were also subtle flags becoming more and more obvious in the final weeks of the season) proved to be too much to overcome in their lone playoff game. Allow me to ask you a question, what do you get when you have an inconsistent running game, a passing game that doesn’t take what the defense gives them, a QB that holds the ball too long, an offensive line that doesn’t hold up in extra time protection, and a defense vulnerable to the big play?
In a word, you have a major problem, and it was on full display for the majority of Seattle’s home playoff loss against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. The Rams ran, passed, blocked, tackled, kicked, and coached better than the Seahawks. They were successful if not dominant in every phase of the game, where Seattle was not. And that’s how their season ended. We all saw Seattle struggle to score in the first half down the stretch, and wondered how they were suddenly going to find the switch they had turned on early in the season. They never found that switch, and remained a good team that spends too much time trying to cover up their weaknesses rather than overwhelming their opponent with their strengths.
So this week, rather than preparing for a divisional round opponent, they instead begin their offseason with questions on how to get over the hump that appears to be self-inflicted, and stay at least level with their division counterparts. It won’t be easy, as San Francisco will be at or near full strength, the Rams will likely be as good or better than they are today, and the Cardinals appear ready to take the next step in their rebuild. This is usually the most competitive division in football, although for 2020 at least, that honor belongs to the AFC North that sent three teams to the playoffs and had only one team with fewer than 11 wins.
Seattle parted ways with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer earlier this week, opening the door for a new offensive mind to work with QB Russell Wilson. Unrelated, GM John Schneider agreed to terms on an extension, keeping him in Seattle after rumors he could be courted to the Detroit Lions who are minutes away from their next rebuild. Now that we know Schneider and Carroll are here for the immediate future, we’ll have to wait and see who they appoint as the new offensive coordinator, and what they do with a reduced offering of draft picks after trading multiple picks for safety Jamal Adams, who was brought in to help this team advance in the postseason.
Speaking of Adams, he headlines a growing list of players that are currently on contracts set to expire following the 2021 season. Carroll and Schneider will have some tough decisions ahead as they decide whether they should extend new deals or lose the services of Carlos Dunlap, Duane Brown, Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed, Quandre Diggs, Brandon Shell, Rasheem Green, DJ Reed, and Tre Flowers. You may recall a similar situation following the 2017 season, and the team made the hard choice then to part with more than a few high profile players. Was it the right move? We’ll see. If the team contends for a championship in the next couple of years, definitely. If they don’t, then this will be just another woulda/coulda/shoulda team that had the makings of a dynasty, but turned out to be a one hit wonder.
As for the Rams, they are the last team still alive in the NFC West. They have the unenviable task of travelling to cold, perhaps snowy, and mostly empty Green Bay this weekend, with the winner advancing to face the survivor of the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Don’t read too much into the betting lines and who the experts are picking, this game is just about even on paper. While some Rams fans could rightfully be excited about the prospect of their absolutely electric defense shutting down the Green Bay offense for four quarters, I wouldn’t count on it. And for those Packers fans thinking Green Bay might be able to scheme their way to an easy win, again, I wouldn’t count on it. This game is about a lot more players than Aaron Rodgers, Devante Adams, Aaron Jones, Za’Darius Smith, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Jared Goff, and Cam Akers. Sure there is plenty of star power on both sides, but both teams have 48 players dressing for Saturday, and they’ll likely need the absolute best out of everyone for their side to advance to the next round. Everyone likes to talk about the superstars, but if the other guys don’t get their jobs done, it won’t matter how bright the best players shine.
And before you let the homefield advantage talk you into leaning toward the home team, know this: it wouldn’t be the first time a number six seed team sporting a 10-6 record won three road games and then the Super Bowl – the Rams’ opponent this weekend pulled off that same feat in 2010. Don’t expect the home team to simply toy with the visitors, and don’t expect the Rams to dominate just because they have a great defense. While that’s possible, the Rams have enough concerns on offense that it’s not likely to be a blowout for either team. In truth, this will probably look a lot like the 2013 NFC Championship game that saw Seattle and San Francisco exchange blows for four quarters, with Seattle winning on a last second defensive stand. Or perhaps the 2018 NFC Championship game between LA and New Orleans, that went down to the final possession as well. It’s going to be a very good game, and you should go ahead and plan to be pacing your living room for three hours chewing on tums in between beverages and snacks. I expect this one to come down to the last couple of possessions, these are two very talented and very proud teams that want to spend three hours on Saturday proving who is tougher.
There’s also no recent history to give any sort of hint as to who might have the edge. Kids that were born the same year these two teams last met in the playoffs (2002) are now old enough to vote. Young people that saw the matchup before that are likely residents in assisted living centers as it took place in 1967. You can’t use what we saw between them in LA in 2018, since that was a very different group of players for both teams and Green Bay had a different head coach and offensive philosophy. And the weather was of the California coastal variety. There’s literally nothing to draw on, no similarities, no tape, nothing. The best you can do is remind yourself that Sean McVay and Matt LaFluer know each other really well, and that’s about as far you can get. We’ve never seen these two teams play each other, or these two coaches on opposing sidelines as the two head coaches before. Whatever this is, it will be something entirely new.
As for Arizona, they technically headed into their offseason two weeks ago. They lost at home to the Rams in week 17, officially eliminating them from the postseason and finishing their season with an 8-8 record. They have a ton of young talent, an extraordinary playmaker in Kyler Murray, one of the top three receivers in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, and a high octane offense thanks to the creativity of head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They are probably a couple of pieces away on both sides of the ball from being a contender for the Super Bowl, but they are much farther along in their rebuild than was expected this time last year. Keep an eye on the Cards, they’re not going away. And they’re not going to be the red-headed step sibling in the division anymore, no matter what color their helmets are.
And that brings us lastly to San Francisco. Where do they go from here? Sure they were forced to deal with a ton of injuries, but that doesn’t completely explain away a six win season. What it tells you is this – they don’t have the across the board depth we all thought they had this time last year when they were establishing themselves as a juggernaut. That same juggernaut held a two score lead over the Kansas City Chiefs with minutes to play in the Super Bowl only to see their first championship since 1994 slip through their fingers.
Entering this season they had high hopes for a second chance at their first title in nearly three decades (yes, you read that correctly, we’re all old as dirt now), but early season injuries to QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, TE George Kittle, DE Nick Bosa, and DT Solomon Thomas took this team from the top of the league and down to the very very bottom in extremely short order. There’s the Super Bowl hangover, and then there’s whatever it is that happened to this team. It didn’t help that DeForest Buckner left in free agency, or that last year’s second best rookie on the team WR Deebo Samuel was nursing a foot injury and missed a chunk of games early on, or that this year’s rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk was recovering from a hamstring injury sustained in training camp. It meant that by the end of week two, we all knew the truth – this team wasn’t going anywhere.
Despite admirable returns from injury by Garoppolo, Mostert, Kittle, and Samuel, it wasn’t enough. All of the above ended up going back on injured reserve, and the team lost seven of their final nine games. What’s scary is that as talented as this team is, they will have the number twelve selection in the draft, but they also have something like thirty players on expired or expiring deals, which will mean a ton of tough decisions between now and the start of free agency when they will have to choose between players they are already familiar with, or go after guys they likely haven’t seen in a 49ers uniform before.
