Michigan Fans Have Reason To Hope Against Oregon, But Can They Pull The Upset? Prediction And Analysis

Sports fan humor is among the best in the nation.

Michigan fans frolicked for months in the glory of being national champions. Still, as this season has already collected three losses to go with no wins over a ranked opponent, derisive humor has returned.

Here are some examples:

“Why doesn’t Michigan have a big trophy room? Oh yeah, I forgot.”

“What’s the difference between us and a bucket of manure? The bucket.”

“How do you confound a Michigan fan? Ask him to spell ‘Ohio State.'”

“I’m not going to any Oregon game until I’m fully recovered from Dennis Dixon!”

#1 Oregon (7-0) at Michigan (5-3)

The Wolverines are 5-1 at home and on a four-game home winning streak. More important to fans is that Michigan played error-free football last week for the first time in the entire season.

That is important because, in two losses to ranked teams, UM has scrimmaged competitively but lost the handle on the ball eight times and turned it over six.

Top Wolverine passers Davis Warren and Jack Tuttle have tossed four touchdown passes while also throwing eight interceptions. They have combined for 141 passing attempts, and an astonishing 6% of those have been intercepted.

In pursuit of options last week, coaches turned to former starter Alex Orji, a raging bull, dual-threat powerhouse who didn’t attempt a single pass and only rushed six times, but he led the team in rushing with more than 10 yards per attempt.

He also leads all quarterbacks in touchdown-to-interception ratio {3:1}.

So, why isn’t he starting?

He didn’t become the starter at Michigan until Warren threw six interceptions in the first two games.

He lost because he had difficulty with plans and getting the right reads. Although he is a junior, and some said he should have been further along, there is a new coaching staff and a new system. He has needed time to adjust. Once he gets it, this Michigan offense is going to take off.

Orji has been described as a “one-in-a-million athlete. “At 6’3” and 235 pounds, his power and speed attracted Nick Saban and Deion Sanders. Orji signed with Michigan because it was the only top-line program that assured him an opportunity to earn the quarterback position.

He will play against Oregon, and the Ducks need to be prepared because they have not faced an athlete like Orji.

Michigan’s rush attack is strong and is founded on an outstanding offensive line. 

With that strong OL ahead of him, senior running back Kalei Mullings is on pace to rush for more than 1000 yards. Michigan is a run-first outfit, so expect to see a lot of Mullings.

Michigan’s air game is centered on tight end Colston Loveland. The former Gooding, Idaho four-star dominates the receiver group with more than twice as many receptions, three times as many yards, and four times as many touchdown receptions as UM’s second receiver, Samaj Morgan.

The Wolverine pass attack is more of an augmentation to their run game than a true aerial threat.

Michigan’s defense ranks high for stopping touchdowns on the ground, but that is deceptive because it ranks among the worst for yielding touchdowns through the air. Why run to the end zone when it’s easy to pass?

The Wolverine pass defense is below average for stopping completions and coming up with interceptions.

Michigan is in the top 25 for bringing pressure, but blitz defenses haven’t succeeded well against Oregon because of the Ducks’ quick pass schemes and quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s elusiveness.

The Duck Pond is flooded with elite receivers, the likes of which the Michigan secondary has not seen and is not likely to cover. 

Besides being weak in pass coverage, the Wolverine secondary is banged up. As of Monday, four defensive backs were on the UM injury list, and all were cited as “questionable” against Oregon.

If the Wolverines don’t turn the ball over, their chance of upsetting Oregon doubles.

Early betting lines project Oregon to win by 14.5.

My savvygameline.com prediction system says it will be Oregon, 30-17.

Although I respect the experts’ opinions and my system, I believe the final margin will be above three possessions.

My Savvy Index system for the season is 442-131 in predicting winners. It is an amazing 93 games better in determining total game points.

You can see all 49 predictions for this week here.

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About Bobby Albrant 169 Articles
Bobby Albrant is a former journalism major at the University of Oregon, creator of Savvygameline.com for college football predictions and rankings, former analyst for Southern Mississippi football games, and twenty years coaching girls basketball for all ages through CIF high school. He has three grown children with his youngest daughter playing on the Ventura (Ca) High School basketball team that defeated Dom Lugo High School and was the last high school game ever played by Diana Taurasi. He can be reached at bobbywildcat@gmail.com.