As we hit the home stretch of the 2025-26 college basketball season, with conference tournaments looming and Selection Sunday just around the corner on March 15, it’s time to take a hard look at Oregon’s Division I men’s teams and their realistic paths to the NCAA Tournament.
The Beaver State has four primary D1 programs, the Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Portland Pilots, and Portland State Vikings, but only one appears poised for a legitimate run at dancing in March. Drawing from the latest bracketology projections, NET rankings, and key metrics like records and strength of schedule, here is a breakdown of who has a shot and who might be better off planning for next year.
Starting with the big one, the Oregon Ducks. Once a perennial Pac-12 powerhouse, their move to the Big Ten has not been kind this season. Sitting at 11-18 overall and a dismal 4-14 in conference play, the Ducks rank near the bottom of a loaded Big Ten. Their NET ranking is not specified in recent projections, but with a sub-.500 record and no notable Quad 1 wins, they are nowhere near the at-large conversation.
Bracketologists like those at ESPN and CBS do not even have them on the bubble, giving them essentially a zero percent chance of making the field without an improbable auto-bid via the Big Ten Tournament. Coach Dana Altman’s squad has struggled with consistency, averaging just 71.3 points per game (287th nationally) while allowing 73.7 (182nd). A late-season push could help, but with remaining games against tough opponents like Illinois, their tournament hopes are essentially NIL.
Next up are the Oregon State Beavers, who transitioned to the West Coast Conference after the Pac-12 shakeup. They have fared better than their in-state rivals, posting a 16-15 overall record and a 9-9 mark in WCC play, good for fourth in the league. However, that is not enough for an at-large bid in a conference dominated by Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
Their offensive output sits at 71.4 points per game (285th nationally), with a middling .429 field goal percentage. Bracket projections from CBS and others omit them entirely from the field or bubble, and predictive models give them less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning the WCC Tournament for the auto-bid. Under Wayne Tinkle, the Beavers have shown grit, but they would need a miracle run in Las Vegas to punch a ticket.
The Portland Pilots, also in the WCC, are in even tougher shape. With a 13-18 overall mark and a 6-12 conference record (ninth place), they are well out of contention. Scoring 74.6 points per game but surrendering 79.1 (a minus-4.5 margin), their defense has been a major issue. There are no bracketology mentions for the Pilots, and their low win total against a relatively weak schedule seals their fate. Coach Shantay Legans has some young talent, but this is not their year.
That leaves the Portland State Vikings as Oregon’s brightest hope. Out of the Big Sky Conference, they have compiled a strong 19-10 overall record and a 13-5 mark in league play, clinching the Big Sky regular-season title and securing the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Their NET sits at 140, with a resume that includes a 7-3 mark in Quad 3 games and 9-3 in Quad 4, though they went 0-4 combined in Quads 1 and 2 against a soft strength of schedule ranked 285th. Offensively, they have been solid at 76.5 points per game (160th nationally), led by forward Terri Miller Jr., who averages 18.9 points per contest.
Portland State closed the regular season in dominant fashion with an 84-60 win over Weber State, a victory that secured the conference title and reinforced their momentum heading into the postseason. CBS Sports’ latest bracketology projects them as a 15-seed in the West Region if they capture the Big Sky’s automatic bid. Under head coach Jase Coburn, the Vikings now control their own destiny. Win the Big Sky Tournament in Boise, and they will be dancing in March.
In a state known for its basketball passion, it is Portland State carrying the flag this March. The others will likely be watching from home, rebuilding for next season. Keep an eye on the Big Sky Tournament starting March 8. That is where Oregon’s Madness begins and ends this year.
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