Oregon has a century-long relationship with the Rose Bowl, but this will be the first time the Ducks will enter the site as a Big Ten team.
This game won’t have the charm of those yesteryear Rose Bowls, but the sights and sounds of Pasadena will at least revive some epic memories.
I recall my last time at the Rose Bowl when I meandered through the grove before the game and sighed with daydreams of the countless romantic hearts and initials lovers had carved onto trees.
The serenity of that moment suddenly burst with the interruption of one question: “Jeeze, just how many people bring knives on their dates?”
The Ducks won’t need knives this week because Oregon football has clear advantages on both sides of the ball, and that shows in the predictions made by experts across the country.
My savvygameline.com prediction system is 244-59 in predicting winners, and it has beaten the betting lines for both point spreads and total points in the past two weeks.
#9 Oregon [3-0] at UCLA [1-2]
The Bruins have passed the ball about 60% of the time, not because they are good at it, but because they’ve been behind by big margins and were forced into it.
UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers was a phenom coming out of Corona Del Mar High School in California. In his high school career, he threw 128 touchdown passes and had only 15 intercepted.
In his three years at UCLA, he’s thrown 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, including this year’s three-touchdown, four-interception performance.
The problem is not that Garbers doesn’t have what it takes to pass the ball at an FBS level but rather that his offensive line is — well — offensive. That line ranks 111th for dealing with blitzes and is also a primary suspect in why running backs can’t get to the second level.
The Bruins will open against Oregon with a commitment to rushing the football. They’re not good at that either, but Oregon hasn’t been all that good at stopping rushes and ranks in the bottom third for getting to running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
UCLA will mount some drives but will likely be frustrated by a woeful inability to convert third downs.
It is likely Oregon will reach a two-possession lead, which will force UCLA to the air once again. Oregon will reap some nice rewards because Garbers will be throwing into the strength of Oregon’s defense, which is ranked seventh best in the nation for opponent completion percentage. Garbers is 110th in the nation for completion percentage (57.1%), so it is conceivable he will have more incompletions than completions.
A second problem for Garbers is that he is subject to sacks once his OL breaks down because he is not a runner. He has tried 22 times to escape blitzes and lost 17 yards in the process. He has also been less effective in throwing passes while scrambling, which has led to his interception problem.
Oregon has been less than average in running the football, and UCLA has one of the nation’s top rush defenses, so the Ducks will likely spend most of their time in the air.
America’s top passing quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, is completing 84% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Unlike Garbers, Gabriel has some ability to run and has already scored two touchdowns on the ground.
I don’t anticipate Gabriel facing much pressure since UCLA is below-average in getting tackles for loss and sacks.
UCLA ranks well below Oregon in both the commission of penalties (90th) and turnovers (113th). It has become my opinion that when a team has both of those as problems, there is likely a lack of emphasis on player discipline.
UCLA’s performance trends on my savvygameline.com prediction system are predominantly negative, while Oregon’s began heavily negative but has posted net-positive trends in the past two weeks.
Prediction experts figure Oregon will win by four touchdowns with about 55.5 total points.
Savvygameline.com agrees with the margin but not the total points, as it projects Oregon will win 42-17.
To see our predictions for all games involving FBS teams this week, please visit savvygameline.com.
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