As we reach the last two games of the regular season, there are troubling performance trends for top-ranked Oregon on my savvygameline.com prediction system.
The Ducks’ upward trajectory from late September and throughout October has leveled. UO has tremendous statistics, but if performance metrics stabilize or begin to fall, trouble is ahead.
That won’t be a problem this week as Oregon travels to Wisconsin to play a Badger outfit that is transitioning and not doing well.
It is common for football game predictors to hedge their opinions, and I have done so for each Conference game UO has played this season. But among the trend lines and factors for Wisconsin, there is nothing of merit that suggests to me that UW is ready to knock off the nation’s top-ranked team.
That is a much riskier prediction I would make in other circumstances, but one that seems justified for this game.
Someone wiser than me once said that to err is human, so if Wisconsin does the unthinkable, a simple “oops” should suffice. However, that same person said, “To blame it on someone else shows management potential,” so that’s what I will do.
That “someone else” is the fan website “Badger of Honor” which went beyond my boldness to say Wisconsin has no chance of beating Oregon “other than a miracle”.
Last week was a bye week for Wisconsin. Oregon must travel across most of the nation to play this game. Aren’t those potential nuts and bolts of a miracle?
I don’t think so.
Travel won’t do it because Oregon has flown to Purdue and Michigan and come away with wins that averaged 37-9.
The bye week won’t either because Wisconsin needs talent, and the transfer portal doesn’t open in November. Coach Luke Fickell can dream and scheme with the best of them, but the Kentucky Derby isn’t won by packhorses.
If they were, Wisconsin would be in pretty good shape because senior running back Tawee Walker is a packhorse. He dominates the number of carries in the UW RB room. He won’t break away like a thoroughbred, but at 5’9”, 210 pounds, he doesn’t mind trampling a few defenders under hoof.
He will likely carry the ball 20 times against Oregon. Although he won’t break 100 yards, he will keep the Badger ground game moving against Oregon’s average rush defense.
Another reason Walker is the dominant running back is that he has yet to fumble the ball this season. UW ranks 112th for the most fumbles, which tells you how poor his backfield mates are at holding onto the ball.
The Wisconsin offensive line ranks in the top 20 for protecting quarterbacks and running backs and for snap discipline. It is about average for basic run blocking.
Oregon will prevail in the rush game because Duck running back Jordan James is among national leaders in several categories, and he has a much stronger offensive line ahead of him.
Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke is a pretty effective runner who can add to UW’s ground game. However, Wisconsin’s quarterback room is perilously thin, so letting Locke take off more than a couple of times a game is about all we’ll see.
Locke is struggling to pass the ball. He completes less than 57% of his passes, and nearly 4% of his passing attempts wind up in the hands of his opponents. Oregon will counter with Dillon Gabriel, who leads the nation in completion percentage and has an amazing interception rate of less than 1.6%.
Keep an eye on Badger receiver Vinny Anthony II. He doesn’t have the most receptions on the Badger roster, but he has the most receiving yards, and he does it at over 18 yards per reception. Wisconsin doesn’t have another strong receiver, and that should enable Oregon pass defenders to keep Anthony in front of them.
The Duck offense will fly high because the Badger defense has problems. It ranks 101st for stopping opposing running backs, 114th for bringing pressure, and 124th for picking off passes. It won’t matter what Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein chooses to do; it should all work.
All of those advantages aren’t enough to suggest a blowout win for the Ducks because Oregon tends to blow out the first half and grind out the second.
Experts predict Oregon will win by about 14.
My savvygameline.com system says it will be Oregon 32-17.
Last week, it predicted Oregon would beat Maryland 35-17. The final was 39-18.
You can see all 55 predictions for this week at savvygameline.com, including Tennessee at Georgia, the only game that matches two ranked teams.
My system is about equal to expert prognosticators in terms of picking winners and setting point spreads. However, it is 111 games better at determining total game points.
