For the Oregon Ducks, it is best to call this week the calm before the storm. After playing Michigan State at home this Friday, part of a Top-25 doubleheader on Fox and FS1, the schedule for Oregon gets really tough, really fast. They will host an absurdly talented and dominant Ohio State team on the 12th, have a small break against Purdue the following Saturday, and then play currently ranked Illinois and Michigan in back-to-back weeks. While they did face a legitimate scare against a very competitive and also-ranked Boise State team in week 2, this stretch will be the real test of Dan Lanning and his 2024 squad. If they can sweep through three of the best teams in their new conference, they can establish themselves as the cream of the crop in the Big 10. If they struggle against one or more of these teams, Oregon’s hopes for a playoff appearance this year could start to fade, and Lanning and crew will head back to the drawing board. For now, though, the goal is to maintain momentum against a middling Michigan State team and hopefully pad their undefeated record.
As most could’ve predicted last week, Oregon kept rolling against a flailing UCLA team, winning their second game by double digits, 34-13. Gabriel looked comfortable and able to stretch his talents as a passer, throwing 41 times and recording 278 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Star receiver Tez Johnson and lead running back Jordan James joined him in the offensive showcase, both recording over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. On the defensive end, Oregon held UCLA to zero offensive touchdowns and limited already struggling quarterback Ethan Garbers to 118 yards and two picks. In stark contrast with this smooth and in-control performance, Michigan State was unsurprisingly not up to the task of going up against third-ranked Ohio State. MSU could only score one touchdown and were held scoreless in the second half in a 38-7 shellacking. Unfortunately, chances of a bounce back against Oregon are quite thin, and with a brutal schedule coming up that includes Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana, Jonathan Smith and co. are likely in trouble.
On the injury front for Oregon, the focus has been on starting tight end Terrance Ferguson, who did not play in the second half vs. UCLA after taking a rough hit from safety Bryan Addison in the second quarter. Luckily, his head injury is not a short-term problem, as he was seen back in team practice Monday morning. During his weekly press conference, Lanning said, “He’ll be ready to roll.” Those who read this column will have heard the name Matthew Bedford mentioned many times before, and unfortunately, he will remain on the injured list going forward. Two starters from last year that Oregon has also been hoping to get back are receiver Gary Bryant Jr and cornerback Jahlil Florence. Florence participated in a Tuesday practice while Bryant remains absent, leaving it up in the air what their availability will be. However, both will likely require more time to work their way back (info via The Register Guard). While adding these players back at some point down the line will be appreciated, their talent should not be needed against Michigan State. Oregon’s offense hasn’t looked quite as dominant as some expected. Still, MSU’s seemingly solid 30th-ranked defense has been able to pump up its profile against a couple of much lesser opponents and did not show much fight against a comparable Ohio State attack (stat via NCAA).
For Michigan State and first-year head coach Jonathan Smith, this game should be viewed as further testing ground for hopeful improvement in the near future. There are simply too many better-funded and more talented programs currently crowding the field in the Big 10 for MSU to make a real bid at a conference title or anything close. Right now, the spotlight is on sophomore quarterback Aiden Chiles as he gets his first chance as a full-time starter, and his growth and progression might determine MSU’s success in the next few years. A former four-star prospect committed to Oregon State, Chiles followed Smith to Michigan State last December when the former OSU head coach left his alma mater. So far, things have been shaky in 2024, with Chiles throwing more picks than touchdowns while also not being able to establish himself as a run threat, even though he’s already gotten almost double the rushing touches as last season. In this game and for the rest of the year, I look for him to develop chemistry further with excellent junior tight end Jack Velling, who also transferred in from Oregon State in the winter. Another player to watch for is star freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh, who is currently leading the team in receiving yards and returned to action last week after going down previously vs. Boston College (info via USA Today).
According to ESPN, Oregon is currently favored by 24.5 points, almost identical to last week’s game against UCLA. The over is 52.5, and it is important to note that last week’s game went under the projection of 55.5. Expect Oregon’s defense to likely stifle an MSU offense that is still very much in the process of finding its most effective form. On the other hand, it should be another offensive showcase for Gabriel and company.
Prediction: Oregon W, 38-14
