Colorado State comes to Corvallis on Saturday to play Oregon State, and West Coast college football is undergoing some weird transformations.
For example, both teams are playing Mountain West Conference schedules this year but will both be in the PAC-12 next year. In addition, both are in a conference that is suing the conference in which they currently play. The MWC agreed to save Oregon State from irrelevancy, and it is conceivable that the MWC will come up with some suits of its own.
College football has become bizarre, and with billions of dollars at stake, insanity, and lawsuits will undoubtedly increase. It has created a jungle in which the money-grabbing opportunists lay in wait to do their money-grabbing things at every opportunity.
At least for now, there is plenty of exciting football for fans, and this weekend’s game in Corvallis is one of them.
My savvygameline.com prediction system is 285-73 in predicting winners this season, and it also has a prediction for this Saturday’s matchup.
Colorado State [2-2] at Oregon State [3-1]
The Colorado State Rams have two wins over weaker opponents (Northern Colorado and UTEP) and two losses over stronger ones (Texas and Colorado).
The CSU offense has struggled to score (18.5 ppg) and a big part of the problem has been turnovers. Ram running backs rank 105th for fumbling the ball. Add to that quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi among national leaders in negative touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio (-100%).
Fowler-Nicolosi emerged as a brilliant difference-maker in CSU’s rebuild in 2023. He was a diamond in the rough last year. This season, he’s looked more rough than diamond.
He has a good set of running backs and a fairly competitive offensive line, so his accuracy really should be better. The problem seems to be intrinsic because he threw eleven interceptions last season, which is about the same number per game as 2024. Perhaps he has been distracted by his social media taunts that have made recent sports headlines.
He will have time to pass against Oregon State because the Beavers are one of the worst in the nation for getting to opposing quarterbacks. At the same time, the OSU secondary has been magnificent in pass breakups and better than average when it comes to intercepting passes. Fowler-Nicolosi will get his passes off, but Oregon State will ensure most of them don’t succeed.
I admit that I am surprised that the Oregon State defense cannot bring pressure, but I’m even more surprised that it is near the bottom in getting tackles for loss, yielding yards to running backs (6.4 ypc), and allowing rushing touchdowns.
Colorado State will certainly push its ground game and force the Beavers to stop it. The Rams will do that primarily with freshman running back Justin Marshall. Although Marshall was not among CSU’s top recruits in the last recruiting cycle, he has excelled enough to displace three returning veterans.
One of those displaced is senior Avery Morrow, who averages over eight yards per carry and entered this season with over 1000 yards as a Ram running back.
Between those two and Oregon State’s porous rush defense, there is every reason to think CSU will be effective on the ground. The Rams have shown that ability in prior games but stymied themselves with a myriad of turnovers and an egregious inability to convert third downs.
If Colorado State cannot command the ground or if the Rams fall behind by two or more possessions, they will be forced to pass and that will swing the game advantage clearly to Oregon State.
Besides Fowler-Nicolosi’s interceptions, the Ram passing attack has been hampered by injuries to fantastic receiver Tory Horton. Despite missing the equivalent of 40% of this season’s offensive snaps, Horton still leads CSU in receptions. He is a terrific talent, and he will play Saturday. If he can stay on the field, he will be a handful for those talented OSU defensive backs.
Both teams will find success running the ball, but it is the Beavers who will be able to produce through the air if a comeback is needed. Oregon State will also win the turnover difference since OSU is second in the nation for fewest turnovers and Colorado State ranks 116th.
Bookmakers list the Beavers as 14-point favorites.
I believe the margin will be greater and that savvygameline.com has it about right in projecting a 35-14 Beaver win.
Last week, savvygameline beat the bookmakers by 11 games in projecting point spreads and 26 games in predicting total game points.
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