Is it possible to expect any accuracy if, in August, we try to predict every one of Portland State’s football games? I mean, some of those won’t happen for months.
I think it’s worth a try, and I’m looking forward to following the predictions of my savvygameline.com system to see how it does. There are some surprises in these predictions, and I don’t mind saying I can’t explain a couple. But then, even the famous Steven Wright couldn’t explain some things, like why they sterilize needles for lethal injections.
In future editions, I will offer predictions for Oregon and Oregon State, but for now, we’ll focus on Portland State.
The Vikings lost their first five games last season, finishing 3-8 and ranking around 100th nationally. The schedule was tough. It won’t be easier this year. Two opponents in 2025 are in FBS, and six more are nationally ranked (although savvygameline doesn’t agree that all should be ranked).
Last year, the Viking offense put up a healthy 29 points per game. Unfortunately, the defense gave up 40. Much of the defensive problem stemmed from a secondary that managed only four interceptions. PSU has since signed five defensive backs, with two expected to provide immediate help.
Dionte Thornton transferred from Boise State, where he had achieved Academic All-Mountain West honors in his redshirt freshman season (2023).
Coach Bruce Barnum also signed two-way All Ventura County (CA) high school star Kayin Booker, who has “great jeans”. (Apologies, Sydney Sweeney.) Booker is the son of former Florida State and NFL star Lorenzo Booker. He will focus on cornerback for the Vikings.
A stronger secondary will help Portland State go from three wins to five this season.
Here’s how:
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Tarleton State
Tarleton was 10-4 last year and finished the season ranked 14th in FCS.
The Texans begin this season ranked 11th on my Savvy prediction system and #6 on Hero Sports.
Although they prefer a 50/50 rush/pass ratio, they will be in the air more than usual against PSU.
TSU senior quarterback Victor Gabalis has already been named the unanimous player of the year in his conference.
Prediction: Tarleton 40, Portland State 23
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BYU
The Cougars were 11-2 last year and finished in the FBS top 10.
Yeah, I know the strange departure of QB Ratlaff and his walk-on status at Tulane last week, but BYU’s QB room is loaded with starting talent.
BYU is a top-ten FBS. PSU is in the bottom 30 FCS. BYU led the FBS in interceptions last year.
Prediction: BYU 50, Portland State 7
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North Dakota
The best that can be said for the North Dakota Fighting Hawks is that they are always competitive; don’t expect them to win conference titles or advance past the first round of the FCS playoffs.
A new coach with no head coaching experience, a roster bulging with new faces, and a late-season UND skid last year gives PSU a shot at an early-season win.
This prediction surprises me, but Savvy says PSU will win it.
Prediction: Portland State 34, North Dakota 31
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Hawai’i
Hawai’i was 5-7 last season, but two of the Rainbow’s wins were against FCS opponents. While the ‘bows scored 25 touchdowns through the air, they could only manage seven on the ground. Much like PSU’s pass defense problems, Hawai’i saw way too many passes over its secondary. PSU won’t win this, but the Vikings should compete well.
Prediction: Hawai’i 37, Portland State 21
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Northern Arizona
Experts rank Northern Arizona in the preseason national top 20. I don’t see it.
The Lumberjacks lost 40 (forty) players from their 2024 roster, including five defensive backs.
NAU also lost outstanding dual-threat quarterback Ty Pennington. There are four returning quarterbacks with talent, but none have much experience, and one has a history of injuries. The ‘Jacks seem likely to go with Gerrit Groenwald as the starter, but he is stepping up from NAIA, so his effectiveness at the FCS level is unknown.
NAU won eight games last season, but one was against Lincoln University, a school with just 573 students. Before we scold NAU for scheduling such a “gimme”, we need to remember that PSU played Lincoln in 2022.
Northern Arizona plays outstanding defense and tends to control the clock with a persistent ground attack. They pass when they have to, but long-distance isn’t their kind of call.
The Vik’s have won the past two meetings. PSU should keep it close, but NAU has a stronger roster.
Prediction: Northern Arizona 24, Portland State 21
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Weber State
WSU ruled the Big Sky Conference from 2017 through 2020, but the Wildcats have been just 10-13 under two-year head coach Mickey Mental.
There is good talent in this program, but my system shows awful metrics for player disciplines and focus. WSU struggles with fumbles, a poor record on third downs (38%), and inefficiency in the red zone (43%), while also incurring more penalties than average for FCS teams.
Prediction: Portland State 31, Weber State 24
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Idaho
The Vandals were 10-4 last season and ended the season ranked 12th in the nation. Head coach Jason Eck left for New Mexico.
Well-traveled and unspectacular Thomas Ford was hired, and twenty players hit the transfer portal despite Ford committing that, “The No. 1 thing is to retain the roster.”
Media polls rank Idaho 12th in the nation. My system says the Vandals won’t finish inside the top 40.
Prediction: Portland State 33, Idaho 30
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Cal Poly
The Cal Poly Mustangs are in a rebuilding year. You know, like they were last year. And the year before. And the year before.
The Mustangs won three games last year, but one was against NAIA Western Oregon, and another was against Northern Colorado, which has won only one game since 2022.
The Poly roster shows better athleticism, but still not enough FCS talent.
Prediction: Portland State 35, Cal Poly 21
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Sacramento State
The Hornets have fallen from the glory days of former head coach Troy Taylor. But then, so has Troy Taylor since his dismissal from Stanford.
Sac State was 3-9 last year and lost to Portland State by 20 points.
The Hornets lost seven of their last eight games and gave up an average of 41 points in the process.
There has been a hornet’s nest of recruiting activity as Sac State gears up for its jump to FBS. That new talent moves this prediction from a cozy PSU win to one that is in jeopardy.
Prediction: Portland State 34, Sacramento St. 27
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Montana
The graduation of starting quarterback Logan Fife is a problem, as Montana lacks someone who has consistently demonstrated an above-average ability to pass the ball without interceptions.
While many experts rank Montana in the top 10 of FCS, my savvygameline.com system projects the Grizzlies at #23.
Prediction: Montana 34, Portland State 20
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Northern Colorado
The past two seasons, UNC’s win-loss record is 1-22. Last year, the Bears lost by an average score of 38-11. Last year, Portland State defeated Northern Colorado 45-13.
Prediction: Portland State 44, Northern Colorado 17
