Experts say Oregon is favored by more than 20 points at home against Illinois this week. But is that the right assessment?
My savvygameline.com prediction system says the game will be closer, and I agree with that.
Here are some reasons why.
Illinois has already defeated two ranked teams and allowed an average of just 12 points in the process.
The Illini traveled to third-ranked Penn State and were within one score with six minutes to play before a turnover ended their drive. That tells us that this Illini bunch can play with the big boys.
Why?
One reason is a defense that allows just 18 points per game, led by a pass defense that ranks in or near the top 25 for interceptions, sacks, and denying touchdown passes.
As good as that defense is, a bigger reason may be the emergence of quarterback Luke Altmyer. Also known as “Cool Hand Luke,” Altmyer is known for his composure under pressure and extraordinary leadership skills.
Two weeks ago, he passed for 379 yards and led a comeback win with two long passes in the final 42 seconds against Purdue. He also rushed 10 times for 60 yards. That performance came in the face of an offensive line that allowed him to be sacked five times.
In addition to being a college honor roll student, Altmyer has won several awards as a college quarterback.
Just this week, he was named a Maxwell Award candidate, an award given annually since 1935 to the best college football player in the nation.
He has also been named twice to the Manning Award for the best players each week.
Sports Illustrated affirms that Altmyer is on pace to have the best season of any quarterback in Illinois football’s long history.
His sudden emergence on the national scene is due, in part, to this being his first season with the same offensive coordinator as the previous season.
“First year with back-to-back coordinators,” Altmyer said. “I didn’t understand how underrated that was until obviously now. Nothing is really new to me, the verbiage, the play-calling, how he (coordinator Barry Lunney, Jr.) sees things playing out in the run game, the pass game, protection. So many different things.”
This week’s game at Oregon brings together two teams with several similarities.
Neither team allows more than 18 points per game.
Both have linebackers among the nation’s top 12 for getting sacks.
Both have NFL-ready receivers.
Both have top 25 pass blitz defenses.
Both have outstanding quarterbacks who rank in the top 20 for passing efficiency and touchdown passes. Altmyer wins the difference in interceptions, though, because he has thrown just one, while Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has thrown four.
Both programs recruited Altmyer after his stellar high school career as a two-year starting quarterback. In both of those years, he was named to the Mississippi All-State team and the Under Armour All-American team.
Altmyer isn’t the only weapon for the Illini.
Wide receiver Pat Bryant is among the national leaders in receptions for touchdowns. Already an NFL prospect, he is known for his terrific acceleration as well as physical strength and strong catch radius.
At 6’3″ and uncommon speed, Bryant is a legitimate long ball receiver. He averages more than 15 yards per reception and averages one touchdown for each fourth reception.
On the defensive side, the Illini have a monster outside linebacker in Gabe Jacas. He is 6’3″, 275 pounds, and among the nation’s leaders in getting to opposing quarterbacks. He is also fourth in the nation for creating fumbles.
He doesn’t just tackle opponents. He gathers them, sorts through them, finds the one with the ball, then deftly plucks it. Oregon running backs are about average for fumbling, so having Jacas on the other side is truly a menace.
Although Illinois offensive skill players have been successful, they haven’t been helped by an offensive line. The UI OL is ranked below 95th for run blocking, stopping sacks, and denying tackles for loss. My Savvy system ranks it 100th in the nation.
Oregon’s pass defense will be the best that Altmyer has faced. The Ducks are terrific at putting pressure on the front end and covering passes on the back end.
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel won’t face much pressure. Still, his recent penchant for throwing interceptions will be critical against Illinois’ secondary, which picks off passes better than frog tongues pick off flies.
National experts say Oregon will win by 20.
My Savvy system says it will be Ducks, 31-21.
You can see all 56 predictions this week by clicking here.
For the season, the Savvy system is 400-117 in predicting winners, and it is 77 games better than the bookmakers in determining total and combined points per game.
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