Illinois @ Oregon
Oregon -21.5 vs. Illinois (-105 on Fanduel)
“Vegas is never wrong” is a popular saying among sports bettors, and this is a good opportunity to follow that wisdom. While 21.5 points may seem like a hefty spread for a ranked matchup, don’t let Illinois’ spot in the AP poll fool you. Although the Fighting Illini are 6-1 and ranked No. 20, their underlying numbers tell a different story. They don’t rank in the top 50 in any major statistical category.
Oregon, on the other hand, boasts top-50 rankings in total yards per game, passing yards per game, and points per game. Defensively, the Ducks rank inside the top 50 in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed.
Despite Illinois’ respectable 5-1-1 record against the spread (ATS), that success has been buoyed by good fortune and their ability to win the turnover battle—where they rank 13th in turnover margin. However, Oregon has done an excellent job protecting the football, limiting opportunities for opponents to capitalize on turnovers.
It’s also worth noting that Illinois is much better at home than on the road. Their lone road win came in overtime against Nebraska, and they’re just 1-1 away from home this season. I expect Oregon to take care of the ball and dominate from start to finish. Don’t let the public sentiment—66 percent of bets favor Illinois—deter you. Oregon -21.5 is the right side.
Bills @ Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel)
This bet hinges on DK Metcalf’s availability for Sunday’s game. Metcalf is currently listed as questionable and has missed two consecutive practices, making it increasingly likely he will sit out. If Metcalf is unavailable, Smith-Njigba will step into the WR1 role, where he’s primed to shine.
Smith-Njigba has already surpassed 50 receiving yards three times this season, and with increased targets in Metcalf’s absence, he’s well-positioned to do so again. The game’s spread, which has Buffalo favored by 3 points, suggests the Seahawks could be playing from behind—further increasing their reliance on the passing game. Given Seattle’s pass-heavy tendencies, Smith-Njigba should get plenty of opportunities to eclipse the 50.5-yard mark.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+145 on FanDuel)
The Seahawks’ defense has struggled against the run, ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and giving up seven rushing touchdowns this season. That creates an enticing opportunity for Josh Allen, one of the NFL’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. Allen already has three rushing touchdowns this year and consistently uses his legs to extend drives and find the end zone.
With the total set at 47.5, this game projects to be high-scoring, providing ample opportunities for touchdowns. Given Seattle’s vulnerable run defense, Allen should have at least one chance to score on the ground. At +145 odds, this is excellent value for a quarterback with Allen’s rushing ability.
