Dante Moore turned down being a potential top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Seven months later, after just four games and one devastating injury, that decision looks much more complicated.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning confirmed Monday that he doesn’t expect Moore to return this season after the quarterback suffered a concussion against USC on Sept. 26. What was supposed to be another year of building his NFL résumé has instead turned into months of uncertainty.
So, just how far has his stock fallen?
Before his injury, Moore’s top-five status was fading, but he looked like a first-round pick. The 21-year-old completed 69 of 99 passes (69.7 percent) for 926 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions, posting a 178.27 passer rating. And that followed a breakout 2025 season, in which he threw for 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing 71.8 percent of his passes.
The problem is that Moore never got a real chance to build on that performance. Oregon entered the season ranked No. 2 with championship aspirations, but instead, his season ended before October. And the Ducks have since fallen to 4-3, including a 1-2 record since his injury.
Those team struggles likely factored into the decision to shut Dante down, especially as playoff hopes, in particular, took hit after hit.
Of course, Moore still has his own decision to make. He can return to Oregon. He can transfer. Or above all else, he can enter the 2027 NFL Draft.
While that storyline will play out over the coming months, his draft projections have already taken a hit.
As of this writing, CBS Sports ranks Moore No. 45 overall in the 2027 class. Its latest mock projects him at No. 30, making him the fifth quarterback selected. That’s a big drop from last year’s conversation.
ESPN’s latest mock leaves Moore out of Round 1 entirely.
Of course, NFL teams still have plenty of reasons to like Moore.
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer spoke with three NFL evaluators who see first-round talent. One compared Moore to Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, praising his arm talent, accuracy, and pocket presence. Another projected him as a future NFL starter.
Questions remain about his athleticism and how he’d fare against elite competition, but Moore’s accuracy, arm talent, and ability to operate from the pocket remain selling points.
The medical side, though, will be important. Lanning expects a full recovery, but NFL teams will examine Moore’s concussion history. Medical evaluations, interviews, and workouts could carry more weight than usual, especially since we won’t see him against Ohio State this season, a game scouts undoubtedly would have wanted to evaluate.
Teams won’t just be deciding whether he’s talented enough to justify a first-round pick, but they’ll also be weighing how much they’re willing to invest in a quarterback whose most recent full season came two years before the draft.
For now, the middle of Round 1 feels like a reasonable projection, if a bit ambitious. Late first-round might be more realistic, and a slide into Round 2 can’t be ruled out.
A lot will depend on which teams need quarterbacks, how the rest of the class performs, and what Moore decides to do next. If he enters the draft, he’ll be asking NFL teams to bet on the player they saw in 2025 rather than the one they hoped to evaluate throughout 2026. That’s a pretty significant gamble for a potential franchise quarterback.
Moore’s case for being a top-five pick has weakened, but his case for being a first-rounder hasn’t disappeared.
There’s still plenty of time for his draft stock to change, even without another college snap.
For now, though, Moore looks like a potential mid-to-late first-round pick.
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