The semifinal matchups in the Men’s Ice Hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics are now set, with Canada taking on Finland while the United States battles Slovakia. The semifinals take place on Feb. 20, with the bronze medal game on Feb. 21 and the gold medal game on Feb. 22.
Following the completion of the preliminary round, all teams were ranked 1 through 12 based on their position in their respective groups, followed by points accrued, goal differential, goals scored, and the 2023 IIHF World Ranking, in that order. The semifinals were then reseeded according to the overall ranking.
Let’s dive into how each team found its way into the final four, examine their odds of claiming the gold medal on Sunday, and highlight several notable performances from the tournament thus far.
Canada
Canada claimed the top overall seed and a first-round bye after winning their three group games with a tournament-best goal total (20) and differential (plus-17), punctuated by a 10-2 demolition of the French in the final group game.
Canada survived a massive scare against Czechia in the quarter-finals, with Nick Suzuki tying the game with three minutes remaining in regulation, after which Mitch Marner completed the comeback in overtime. Jordan Binnington repaid head coach Jon Cooper for his continued confidence with several key saves late in the game and in overtime.
The semifinal reseeding meant Canada would face Finland to advance to the gold medal game. They should be heavy favorites with the tournament’s top two leading scorers in Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini, and the best power play in Milan (41.7% in four games). The fact that much of the team’s depth hasn’t played all that well should scare their opponents, as they’ve managed to survive without that extra push.
Finland
Finland’s strong group stage performance (two wins, plus-11 goal differential) earned them second place in Group B and the fourth and final first-round bye for the quarter-finals.
The Finns pulled off the most improbable win of these Olympics, erasing a two-goal deficit with less than seven minutes remaining in the third period against the Swiss in the quarter-finals, with Artturi Lehkonen completing the comeback in overtime.
Surprisingly, Finland is even in this position, considering that the usual captain, Aleksandr Barkov, is missing these Olympics due to injury. Lehkonen is the team’s leading scorer with only five points in four games (16th among all skaters), and both Mikko Rantanen and Sebastian Aho – the team’s two best players – haven’t exerted their influence to a significant degree.
Goaltender Juuse Saros has been one of the competition’s best, ranking third among all goalies in both save percentage and goals-against average. He’s faced inconsistency in the NHL with the Nashville Predators over the past two seasons, but he’s been at his best in Milan.
Czechia demonstrated the formula for beating Canada, and Finland has more NHL-level depth, so they have a puncher’s chance at winning their second gold medal (they also won in 2022) and entering into a three-way tie all-time.
United States
The United States won Group C undefeated, finishing the group phase tied for second in goals (16) and goal differential (plus-11). They won each game by a margin of three goals or more and rarely looked tested in the preliminaries.
Despite winning two of their three group games, Sweden lost the tiebreakers and were sent to the playoff round (beating Latvia 5-1). Their lower seeding set up an early showdown between medal contenders, where the U.S. won in overtime after tying the game late in the third.
A few of the American skaters have distinguished themselves in the same way as Canada’s superstars up front. Captain Auston Matthews is in a three-way tie for ninth in tournament scoring (six points), and Quinn Hughes is first in points among all defenders (six). Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been borderline unstoppable, ranking first in every meaningful category, and has channeled Ryan Miller’s similarly dominant performance at the 2010 Winter Olympics.
The Americans will face an easier semifinal matchup than their rivals, the Canadians, but Slovakia has shown they are not to be taken lightly. If the 2026 final is a rematch of the gold medal games in 2002 and 2010, Hellebuyck will need to be superhuman to shut down the high-powered Canadian attack.
Slovakia
The biggest surprise of the tournament is Slovakia, which finished atop Group B and earned the third-overall seed after winning two of three games and beating both Sweden and Finland – the two group favorites – in head-to-head goal differential. This development sent Sweden to the qualification playoffs with the tournament’s bottom-feeders and eventually led to their early elimination at the hands of the Americans in the quarter-finals.
Slovakia pummeled the pre-tournament dark-horse Germans 6-2 in the quarter-finals, setting up a showdown with the powerhouse United States in the semis. Slovakia won bronze at the 2022 Olympic Games, but repeating the feat with NHL players involved would be a much more shocking result.
The Slovaks have ridden a sturdy penalty kill (fourth at 82.4%) and a herculean effort by goaltender Samuel Hlavaj, who has faced the third-most shots against per game in these Olympics. Juraj Slafkovsky (seven points in four games) and Dalibor Dvorsky (six in four) have also formed a formidable duo up front for the surprise semi-finalists and will be key in undertaking at least one more major upset.
2026 Olympic Tournament MVP Shortlist
With four teams still in contention for the gold medal at the time of this writing, several players have separated themselves from the pack. Playing on a medal-winning team should be a prerequisite to being named MVP, so only players on teams reaching the semifinals have been included:
- Connor McDavid, Canada – Current tournament leader in assists (nine) and points (11)
- Macklin Celebrini, Canada – Leading goal scorer (five) and tied for second in points (nine)
- Juraj Slafkovsky, Slovakia – Tied for fifth in points (seven)
- Quinn Hughes, United States – First among defensemen in points (six)
- Connor Hellebuyck, United States – First among goaltenders in save percentage (.958) and goals-against average (0.98)
- Samuel Hlavaj, Slovakia – Fifth in save percentage (.932) and sixth in goals-against average (2.67)
- Juuse Saros, Finland – Third in save percentage (.938) and goals-against average (1.49)
Of course, a player not named on this shortlist could have an excellent showing over the final two games, but it seems unlikely that any other players can bridge the current gap in value to the team.
Men’s Olympic Hockey Medal Round Predictions
The following are my predictions for the semifinals and the medal games:
Semifinal #1: Canada defeats Finland
Semifinal #2: United States defeats Slovakia
Bronze Medal Game: Slovakia defeats Finland
Gold Medal Game: Canada defeats United States
Tournament MVP: Connor McDavid, Canada
While Finland and Slovakia have a chance to topple the sport’s giants, it is very unlikely that either Canada or the United States will win gold. Of course, there’s a reason that the games still have to be played – which nation will be standing tall on Sunday?
Data courtesy of the IIHF.
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