The Wisconsin Badgers come to Eugene this week to take on Mighty Oregon in a mismatch that is about as big as it could be between two storied programs. I have a savvygameline.com prediction for that game and a review of last week’s predictions, which we’ll get to in a moment.
Gigantic statistical differences between these two teams are unprecedented. Until recently, Wisconsin was known as a challenging, competitive power team that posed a threat to every opponent on its schedule.
Today, the Badgers lack identity and are near the 90th percentile in the rankings. UW has lost its last five games in a row and has not scored a single point in the previous two. A blowout loss to the Oregon Ducks would likely end the Fickell era in Madison, Wisconsin.
With the hiring of coach Luke Fickell for the 2023 season, Wisconsin made a paradigm shift from the power outfit of old to a new, wide-open offensive scheme. When that failed, Fickell fired his offensive coordinator and decided to return the Badgers to a power game.
Those changes commingled a roster that was part one thing and part another.
When Fickell was hired, modules in my Savvy system flagged red flags that needed monitoring.
My summary of that hiring included this:
“It bears watching to see if his (Fickell’s) success at Cincinnati was brought on by his good coaching or more from having a great quarterback (Desmond Ridder). Under Ridder, coach Fickell averaged 11 wins per year. Once Ridder graduated, he won nine. Fickell or Ridder? Who really did the winning?”
In his days as head coach at Cincinnati, Fickell made a splash hire when he lured offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to Wisconsin. Denbrock had OC credentials from LSU and Notre Dame (twice), as well as NFL experience.
Fickell scored again when he recruited a mere two-star quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who flourished as a four-year star at Cincinnati and is now in the NFL.
Over four years of Ridder leading the way, Cincinnati averaged 11 wins. Once Ridder left, so did those double-digit wins, and the question of who was responsible for UC’s success arose..
Wisconsin either didn’t notice or didn’t care. The Badgers hired Luke Fickell with great fanfare and hope.
I don’t recall any of the analysts, including me, saying that Fickell would not do the job at UW; we said there were reasons for caution and observation.
In addition to the Ridder dilemma, fans wondered whether transforming UW into an open attack was a good idea, given that the roster was filled with mud-grunt players.
Despite hopes for the double-digit magic FIckell had enjoyed at Cincinnati, Wisconsin won just seven games in 2023 and failed to compete well against any of its ranked opponents.
Problems began when senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai broke his hand midway through the season, and freshman Braedyn Locke wasn’t ready to take over. Without a stellar quarterback, Wisconsin and the new era of Fickell football sputtered.
Instead of producing a dynamic offense, the UW offense produced fewer points per game in 2023 than it had before Fickell took over.
A glaring question in that 2023 season was why Fickell’s quarterback-centric system hadn’t prodded coaches to find a quarterback in the portal who had experience and fit the system. Why had they placed their reliance on Locke, who was a pure freshman and had been ranked by 247sports as the 1002nd best player in America?
With Tanner Mordecai graduating, Fickell lured Tyler Van Dyke from Miami (FL), and it seemed Wisconsin had found its starter. Indeed, they had. But, just three games into the 2024 season, Van Dyke suffered a season-ending injury.
Because Wisconsin still had not brought proven depth to the position, Braedyn Locke once again became Wisconsin’s starting quarterback, and once again, Wisconsin’s offense sputtered.
The Badgers won just three of their nine games with Locke at the helm. They lost five straight to end the season and averaged just 13.6 points in those five losses.
Again, the question resurfaced: Why didn’t Wisconsin have sufficient talent and depth at quarterback?
Although the season ended with despair, there was hope for 2025 because, by then, Van Dyke would be fully healed and ready to go.
Except . . .
Van Dyke and Locke both transferred, and the UW quarterback cupboard was bare.
Fickell and his group went to work to solve the problem. They went to work in the portal and came up with Danny O’Neill, who had just completed his freshman season at San Diego State. Despite being assured they had found their starter, UW coaches continued working the portal, and this time they came up with Billy Edwards Jr. from Maryland.
Edwards won the starting role, but after just 16 passing attempts, he was sidelined with an injury and has not returned.
O’Neill replaced him, but after a horrendous 6% of his passing attempts were intercepted, he was replaced by senior Hunter Simmons, a transfer from Southern Illinois of the FCS.
Simmons promptly improved UW passing. Instead of throwing 6% interceptions, he’s only thrown 5.6%.
The national average for interceptions is about 2.2%.
Is there any wonder why Wisconsin is scoreless in its last two games and winless in its previous five?
That brings me back to the original question:
“Fickell or Ridder? Who really did the winning?”
Is Fickell only good when his quarterback is spectacular?
There is another way we can find out.
In 2010, Ohio State won twelve games and the Big Ten championship. In fact, over 14 consecutive seasons, the Buckeyes won at least 10 games each year—except 2011.
Who was the coach in 2011?
Luke Fickell.
Instead of winning 12 games like Jim Tressel had done the year before or 12 games like Urban Meyer, who followed him, Fickell won just six.
In his first two seasons at Wisconsin, Fickell has averaged six wins per season. Right now, the Badgers stand 2-5, and with Oregon, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington, and Illinois still on the schedule, it doesn’t seem likely UW will get to six wins in 2025.
Fans have become impatient with the losses and with Fickell’s apparent uncertainty about what he wants the UW program to be.
There might be some oddball fans who enjoy chaos and shuffling and uncertainty.
It’s like the advertisement that four out of five people suffer from diarrhea, and how that makes me wonder if that means there is actually one who enjoys it?
Wisconsin desperately needs to get a win. That is not likely against the Ducks this week.
Experts say Oregon will win by 33.5 points.
All season, my savvygameline.com prediction system has said that the betting lines are too conservative on Oregon’s spreads. This week, both the betting lines and Savvy have similar margins.
Savvy says Oregon will win 42 – 9.
Last week, the Savvy Index was 41 – 19 in predicting winners and stands at 410 – 118 through eight weeks.
It is now 27 games better than betting lines at predicting point spreads and four games better at predicting total game points.
To see all of Savvy’s predictions for this week, click here.
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