What Could A Josh Naylor Re-Signing With The Seattle Mariners Look Like?

Since being brought in from Arizona near the MLB’s trade deadline, Josh Naylor has exceeded every single expectation the Seattle Mariners could’ve had for him. He’s posting close to a .300 average with nine homers across 210 at-bats in Seattle, and remarkably, he’s been even better at home in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. With nearly 20 stolen bases as well, Naylor’s late-season spark helped propel Seattle up the standings and to a secured first-round bye in this year’s postseason.

But the fun might be short-lived, with the 28-year-old set to test unrestricted free agency. Several contenders are expected to pursue a first baseman, including the Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres. The Mariners’ mixed history in retaining core pieces won’t ease fans’ nerves, either.

That said, it looks like Jerry Dipoto doesn’t want this one to be a short-term rental. He told the media last month there is “interest on our end” to keep Naylor in Seattle and believes “there is interest on Josh’s end” as well.

With no first baseman in the farm system nearing the majors, the Mariners might have no choice but to give him whatever he and his representation want. But what could that be? Well, let’s take a look at recent precedent. These deals include Christian Walker’s three-year, $60 million contract with the Houston Astros, Pete Alonso’s two-year, $54 million re-signing with the New York Mets, and Paul Goldschmidt’s one-year, $12 million agreement with the New York Yankees.

Naylor is the younger and probably more productive player than both Walker and Goldschmidt at this stage of their careers, but less proven than Alonso. He will also hold even more leverage with an estimated $30 million coming off the Mariners’ salary cap books. All of those points suggest a five-year, approximately $110 million deal (averaging $22 million annually) as the likely price tag, which would strike a balanced mix of long-term security while still maximizing his earning potential in his prime. 

Of course, the free agent landscape in baseball is constantly evolving, so nothing is set in stone. Right now, though, the Mariners’ attention is on the field as their American League Division Series matchup with the Detroit Tigers is tied 1–1 heading to the Motor City for Game 3 on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. PT on FS1.