When the Oregon State Beavers travel to play Appalachian State this week, there will be more in the air than college spirit and game plans.
Legends and lore of the Blue Ridge Mountains still manifest in Boone, North Carolina, where, for decades, water at Mystery Hill has flowed uphill and mysterious lights have danced unexplained in the night skies above Brown Mountain.
Appalachian State football has a mystique of its own with accomplishments that are as hard to explain as the legends of the enigmatic Moon-eyed people that Cherokee Indians once captured in sculpture.
If I asked you where you were on September 1, 2007, you might scratch your head. But if I added, “Appalachian State at Michigan,” you will likely break into a smile and nod your head.
Like football fans everywhere, I remember exactly where I was on that day when the final gun announced ASU’s shocking win with a bang that still echoes in football lore.
That was the first time in football history that any team from a lower division had ever knocked off a top-five Division 1 team.
The next day became the first time in football history that any team ranked in the top five on Saturday dropped entirely out of the rankings on Sunday.
Sunday was the first and only time in football history that any team from a lower division was voted into the rankings of Division 1. It never happened again because Division 1 administrators, embarrassed, changed the rules.
Highlights of that game were replayed for days on SportsCenter, and Sports Illustrated turned the event into a glossy cover story.
Seven years later, Appalachian State was elevated to Division 1. Rather than coming in with humility and discretion, the Mountaineers entered with machismo and magic, winning enough games to qualify for a bowl game. Once again, they were thwarted by the rules because bowl games were not permitted for first-year FBS programs.
Nonetheless, the Mountaineers went on to win the Sun Belt Conference four consecutive years. They won six out of seven bowl games while posting an overall record of 80-24.
From 2019 to 2022, the small school upset North Carolina, South Carolina, and nationally ranked East Carolina, came within two points of upsetting nationally ranked Miami, and then took down #6 Texas A&M.
In 2018, I wrote about Appalachian State’s ability to produce winners consistently. Whatever magic is in those mountains caused ASU to overcome such setbacks as changes in athletic directors, head coaches, and starting quarterbacks, among others. While others failed, ASU continued to win.
In fact, the Mountaineers now rank in the top 10 of all FBS programs for most wins (95) since 2015.
If any of us had been alive in 1937, we would have seen it coming. In that year, the Boone boys under coach Kidd Brewer, whose name is on the ASU stadium, won the first of three national championships for the school. In fact, that 1937 team didn’t lose a game. It also didn’t give up a single point.
Appalachian State fans expect to win. They expect to kill giants.
If you go to Boone, North Carolina, today, you will see the Moon-eyed statues still standing. You will see the lights dancing over Brown Mountain after sunset.
But the magic? Just ain’t what it used to be, at least for now.
Last December, ASU was forced to fire its head coach after the Mountaineers posted their first losing season in FBS. Firing the late Sean Clark was not an easy thing to do, as he had been a three-time All-American lineman at ASU and was very much a favorite son. It is sad to report that Coach Clark passed away 10 days ago after a sudden and unusual medical event.
Less than a week after firing Clark, ASU hired Dowell Loggains, who has extensive coaching experience but has never served as a head coach.
It can take time for a new coach to get a program to turn his way. So far, that turn has not happened. In fact, it seems to be going the other way.
Appalachian State now stands winless in the Sun Belt, the Conference they once dominated. In their most recent two games, the Mountaineers have been blown out by an average score of 43-18. Neither of those opponents was ranked.
It took a late touchdown for the Mountaineers to get past Lindenwood despite Lindenwood being a losing team in the FCS.
One fan’s comment represents much of Boone, North Carolina. He said, “We are not used to this. We have been the top dog in the Sunbelt, and it hurts to see us losing in the easy games. We were once the giant killers, but I guess not anymore.”
What is the problem?
Through a bit of analytical work, I realized that Appalachian State exhibits signs of a lackadaisical approach to player focus and preparedness. That is substantiated to some degree by the Mountaineers being nearly dead last in FBS for penalties and number of turnovers.
If focus and preparation are the issues, the “fix” doesn’t begin with the players; it starts with the coaches. I have found that those issues are often harbingers of lackadaisical training regimens that don’t condition players well enough to compete through the fourth quarter.
The Mountaineers have given up 28 combined points in the fourth quarter of their last two blowout losses.
So, I found it odd that the expert analysts began this week favoring Appalachian State over Oregon State. Only recently did they finally tilt toward the Beavers, but even then, by only 1.5 points.
I’m not suggesting Oregon State is in for a cakewalk win. Although the Beavers elevated significantly in my system this week, they’re facing an ASU defense that is in the top 20 for bringing pressure. Overall, that is something OSU has not dealt with well, although last week against Houston, the Beavers were fantastic.
Oregon State also must keep an eye on ASU senior defensive lineman Kevin Abrams-Verwayne. Not only is he posting nearly one sack per game, but he is also fourth in the nation for causing fumbles.
With Oregon State trend lines on Savvy moving upward at a fast rate and Appalachian State spiraling downward, the Beavers have a daunting advantage in momentum. And, OSU has played much, much stiffer competition.
All of it adds up to savvygameline.com predicting Oregon State will win against Appalachian State, 32-24.
It won’t be a cakewalk, but then, Beavers don’t care much for cake.
Last week, the Savvy system was 41-11 in choosing winners. It predicted Oregon would defeat Penn State 33-24. Oregon won 30-24.
For the season, the system is 291-70.
To see all 51 football predictions this week, visit savvygameline.com.
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