As the calendar flips to Week 5 of the 2025 college football season, the Oregon State Beavers find themselves in a precarious spot: 0-4, reeling from a brutal early schedule that included ranked powerhouses like Oregon and Texas Tech, and now staring down an undefeated Houston Cougars team that’s cruising at 3-0. On paper, it’s a mismatch—Houston is favored by anywhere from 10.5 to 13.5 points, with moneyline odds as lopsided as -550 for the Cougars and +400 for the Beavers.
But here’s the thing: upsets happen when underdogs exploit mismatches, play with desperation, and capitalize on home-field energy. Oregon State, playing under the Friday night lights at Reser Stadium in Corvallis for the first time with a full student section this season, has a real shot to flip the script. Here’s a step-by-step blueprint for how the Beavers can shock Houston and notch their first win of the year.
1. Leverage the Schedule Disparity: Attack Houston’s Untested Defense
Houston’s 3-0 start looks shiny, but let’s peel back the layers. The Cougars have feasted on softer competition, including a win over Colorado, which is their marquee victory so far. Their defense boasts impressive numbers—eight sacks and five interceptions through three games—but those stats were padded against inferior offenses. Oregon State, meanwhile, has battled through one of the nation’s toughest early slates, facing two straight ranked opponents and holding their own in stretches (like the first half against Oregon, where they stayed competitive before fading).
The key? Oregon State’s offense, ranked 49th nationally in passing (249.2 yards per game with six touchdowns), can exploit Houston’s vulnerabilities. The Cougars allow 388.7 yards per game overall and average 5.55 yards per play—solid, but not elite against top-tier attacks. Beavers coach Trent Bray nailed it in his pregame presser: “Eliminate or reduce the amount of explosive plays and make them be patient and drive.” Flip that script on offense—use quarterback Maalik Murphy’s arm to generate big plays downfield. Murphy, a former Texas and Duke standout, has thrown for 964 yards and six scores this season despite five picks. If he trusts his reads and avoids hero ball (as Bray emphasized post-Oregon), he can target Houston’s secondary, which hasn’t faced an explosive passing game like OSU’s yet.
2. Unleash Key Playmakers: Walker, Murphy, and Thomas as Game-Changers
No upset happens without stars stepping up, and Oregon State has three prime candidates highlighted in pregame breakdowns. Wide receiver Trent Walker, a 6-foot-2 senior with 23 catches for 302 yards this season, is a matchup nightmare. His route-running and ability to create space in open field could torch Houston’s secondary—defensive backs like Latrell McCutchin Sr. and Kentrell Webb will be tested. Walker nearly hit 1,000 yards last year and had a 136-yard explosion against Cal; expect him to haul in his first touchdown of 2025 here, especially if Murphy rebounds from his 5-of-18 dud against Oregon.
On defense, senior defensive back Skyler Thomas is the tackling machine OSU needs to disrupt Houston’s rhythm. With 31 tackles (14 solo) through four games, Thomas’s vocal leadership and play-reading skills could neutralize Cougars QB Conner Weigman, who Bray noted “hurts teams by getting out and running.” Weigman has only four touchdowns this season and hasn’t consistently exploited secondaries downfield—OSU’s defense, despite ranking 127th overall (allowing 464.5 yards per game), has shown flashes of turnover creation. Thomas, who led the team with 81 tackles and nine pass breakups in 2024, can force Weigman into mistakes if the Beavers maintain rush lanes and avoid the containment breakdowns seen against Oregon’s Dante Moore.
Finally, Murphy himself: The Inglewood native needs to channel his Duke days (26 TDs, 60% completion rate) and avoid forcing plays. As Bray put it, “It’s back to trusting your read, trusting the offense, and doing what the defense gives you.” If Murphy connects with Walker for big gains, OSU’s offense—ranked 76th in first-down conversions—can sustain drives and wear down Houston’s front.
3. Fix the Ground Game and Win the Turnover Battle
Oregon State’s rushing attack is a glaring weakness (131st nationally), but there’s room for improvement against a Houston defense that’s allowed opponents to average 6.98 yards per play overall. Running back Anthony Hankerson has 1,300 career yards at OSU (33rd in program history) and 17 rushing scores as a Beaver—five shy of the top 10 all-time. Bray pinpointed the issue: “We’ve got to run the ball better… finishing the block, staying in the fight.” Early success on the ground (like the positive moments against Oregon) could open play-action passes and control the clock, limiting Houston’s opportunities.
Turnovers are the X-factor. Houston thrives here (plus in turnover margin), but OSU’s defense has potential—Bray’s teams have won 91% of games when plus-one or better in takeaways, per his past coaching stops. Force Weigman into errors, protect the ball, and the Beavers can flip field position in a game expected to be physical.
4. Harness Home-Field Magic and the Friday Night Vibe
Reser Stadium on a Friday night with students back? That’s electric. OSU hasn’t played a true home game with full energy yet this season, and the short week could help them “bounce back” without dwelling on the Oregon loss, as Bray noted. Houston’s first road trip outside Texas adds pressure—travel fatigue and a raucous crowd could amplify mistakes.
In a season where OSU’s faced “the toughest stretch of its schedule” (per OregonLive), this is the pivot point. The Beavers are primed for a turnaround—win the explosive plays, dominate with their stars, and ride the home wave, and they could send Houston home 3-1. It’s not just about moral victories; as Bray said, “There’s only one: that’s winning.”
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