Best Bets – Why Oregon’s Defense Will Smother Northwestern, Plus Seahawks-Steelers Picks

Northwestern under 9.5 points vs Oregon (+110 on ESPNBET)                                            

Oregon’s defense has been nothing short of dominant to start the season, allowing just 16 total points and only one touchdown through two games. While the unit isn’t flashy, it’s remarkably disciplined, erasing explosive plays and holding opponents to just three gains of 20 yards or more. That kind of consistency should travel well.

Northwestern’s offensive approach actually plays into Oregon’s strengths. The Wildcats like to slow the game down and shorten possessions, but Oregon’s defense thrives against methodical teams by forcing them to sustain long drives without big plays. Although Northwestern put up 42 points last week, it came against a team that is 1-7 in its previous eight games, Western Illinois. In Week 1, against Tulane’s defense — which is far less talented and disciplined than Oregon’s — Northwestern managed just three points.

This will be Oregon’s first road test of the year, and in games like these, defenses often set the tone. Expect the Ducks to lean heavily on their defense to control tempo, limit mistakes, and create opportunities for the offense to capitalize. If Oregon’s front continues to bottle up the run and their secondary keeps everything in front of them, the Ducks should have the upper hand in what could turn into a grind-it-out road win.

Seahawks +3.5 vs Steelers (-140 on ESPNBET)

This is a prime spot for the Seahawks. They’re coming off a gut-wrenching Week 1 loss, while the Steelers benefited from a somewhat fortunate Week 1 victory. The market is overvaluing Pittsburgh and undervaluing Seattle, creating a strong buy-low opportunity on the Hawks. Seattle’s defensive front showed teeth in Week 1, hitting Brock Purdy eight times and causing havoc all game. That kind of pressure profile is bad news for Aaron Rodgers, who at 41 years old is far less mobile than his prime self. Four sacks against the Jets exposed Pittsburgh’s offensive line, and if the Seahawks replicate their pass rush from last week, Rodgers will struggle to find rhythm.

Sam Darnold wasn’t spectacular in his Seattle debut, but the Seahawks controlled the line of scrimmage defensively and nearly upset San Francisco despite offensive inconsistency. Against a Steelers team that benefitted from short fields last week, Seattle’s defense should keep them within one score. Catching the hook at +3.5 provides critical value in what shapes up as a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

Seahawks vs Steelers Under 39.5 Pts (-105 on ESPNBET)

Both teams want to establish the run but lack explosive ground games. Seattle leans on Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, while Pittsburgh splits touches between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Neither side projects for efficiency, which means plenty of clock-chewing drives.

Rodgers’ Week 1 stat line looked shiny, but his average depth of target was just 4.4 yards, and he was under duress much of the game. Seattle’s pass rush should force more checkdowns and punts, capping Pittsburgh’s ceiling. On the flip side, the Steelers’ pass rush, led by T.J. Watt, is a nightmare matchup for Seattle’s average and inexperienced offensive line. That points to stalled drives, red zone field goals, and a game that plays firmly under the total.

With two defenses in the top tier and two offenses that lack firepower, 39.5 feels like the correct number to attack.