Oregon women’s basketball ended last season 11-21, culminating in the worst loss (79-30) by any team in PAC-12 tournament history.
A month later, nearly all of the elite players had transferred, and fans wondered if Oregon women’s basketball would recover.
Today, our team has so many new faces that it is hard for fans to know who is who and who does what.
With a record of 7-3, it would be nice to know if this group has what it takes to get to the NCAA tournament and, if so, how far it could go.
To that end, I decided to analyze players’ accomplishments so far and see what clues I could find.
I broke the project into a study of three elements:
1. Who are the best ball handlers who can handle the ball and operate the offense under pressure?
2. Who are the best shooters and scorers?
3. Who are the best defenders?
Some of the results were what I expected. One in particular was not.
BALL HANDLERS
Deja Kelly gets much more playing time than any other Duck because she has elite experience at the point after she spent three years in that position at North Carolina, where she achieved ACC honors.
Although there is no other accomplished point guard on the roster, there is a sleeper on the bench in BYU transfer Nani Falatea. Falatea commits the fewest turnovers per minute than any player on the roster, including Kelly. She has not yet become a scorer, but we know she can because she averaged 15 points per game at BYU in her sophomore season. Her assist ratio is less than Kelly’s, but her scoring threat is greater.
Falatea won’t likely increase playing time as long as Kelly is healthy, but she needs to get enough to keep her in Oregon for next year. Kelly graduates at the end of this season, and the Ducks will be scrambling to find a point player.
Coach Kelly Graves can also turn to sophomore Washington transfer Ari Long. Although not a help at the point, Long is electrifying in transition and is excellent with the ball on the wing. Regarding the fewest turnovers per minute, Long is second of all players on the Duck roster.
Sofie Bell is another good ball handler, but her shooting accuracy and assists have dropped noticeably this season. In other words, she has been good at dribbling under pressure but not very good at getting the ball into the basket or to a teammate.
SHOOTERS AND SCORERS
Without question, the most productive and efficient scorer on the Oregon team is Elisa Mevius. She is in the top three Ducks for three-point shooting accuracy, field goals, and free throws. Mevius is number one in points per minute.
For Oregon to reach the NCAA tournament, Mevius’ must get more playing time. She averages 19 minutes per game, which is fifth among all Ducks.
The German native came to Oregon from Sienna College in New York. She has two years of eligibility remaining, but I doubt she will stay with Oregon unless her role and playing time are expanded.
Peyton Scott is a whirlwind of energy, passion, and efficiency. She is the second most effective offensive player on the Duck squad because she is deadly from the three-point line. She also leads the team in free-throw percentage (84.6%).
No player on the roster scores more points per minute than Peyton Scott, which explains why she earns more playing time than any other player except Deja Kelly.
Ari Long is an excellent option for additional scoring punch inside because of her penchant for blasting into the key and drawing fouls. Once at the free-throw line, she connects on 83.3% of her shots, second best of any Duck. She needs to shoot more and also increase her assists, but, as we saw in last week’s USC game, she is an instant dose of game-changing effectiveness.
For additional scoring from the outside, the Ducks can turn to Falatea because she is the second-best three-point shooter (37.5% accuracy). She has had some shortcomings on the defensive side, but if given the opportunity, she will reverse some of the long scoring slumps we’ve seen at Oregon this season.
If Sarah Rambus could reduce her turnovers and increase her rebounding, she would be an excellent boost to the offense because she has been a very effective scorer at the rim.
DEFENSE
I have incorporated data from rebounding, steals, and blocked shots for defense.
It may not seem surprising to see Phillipina Kyei in the top three for Oregon’s defense. Still, it looks quite remarkable when we remember that she has not recovered from an early-season injury and has not yet been conditioned for full-game action.
Her physical issues have been so severe that despite being an all-PAC-12 player last year, she is eighth on this team for playing time (14.9 mpg). Her return to full action is essential if Oregon makes a run at the Sweet Sixteen.
Kyei leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots per minute, but Oregon’s long-term success will be limited if she doesn’t fully heal and condition soon.
What if Kyei never returns to complete form?
That is where Amina Muhammad comes in. At 6’4″ and with elite athleticism, Muhammad has the potential to become one of the best players in college basketball. She ranks second on the team in overall defensive effectiveness, but there is so much more she can do. The measure of how high she can climb will be determined by how much focus and effort the coaches put into developing her footwork, mid-range shooting, and transition awareness,
She is third on the team in playing time, and if that continues, it will immensely help her development.
Few players in the West have more untapped potential than Muhammad, so it will be interesting to see how well coaches develop her.
This might surprise you (as it did me), but when I ranked players based on rebounds per minute, steals per minute, and blocked shots per minute, Ari Long finished first.
Although Deja Kelly leads the Ducks in total steals with 15, Long would have 32 if she played as many minutes — that’s how dynamic Long is as a disruptor.
Long is only the seventh tallest player on the roster, but her perpetual aggression has earned her more rebounds per minute than any player other than Kyei, who is six inches taller.
And those aren’t just numbers on paper. You can see it all come to life by tuning into last weekend’s game with #6 USC.
Ari entered that game about halfway through the second quarter. She immediately stole the ball from Rayah Marshall and streaked to the other end for a layup. A minute later, she drove the key again and made two free throws after being fouled by Kiki Ireafen.
What’s so special about that? No other player on the Duck roster had scored a single point for eight minutes before Long entered the game.
The Ducks ended the half down 40-19.
They won the second half 36-24 because coach Graves acknowledged Long’s impact and put her in as a starter for the second half.
He placed her at the defensive point and put a zone behind her. At 6’0” and with catlike quickness, Ari made a multitude of deflections. By herself, she disrupted USC’s backcourt, which never got rhythm in the second half.
I wonder if Oregon would have won had Ari started both halves and disrupted USC for an entire game.
She played only the sixth-most minutes against USC, yet she got to the free-throw line twice as often as any other Duck. She finished second in rebounding and third in points and was the only bench player to reach double digits.
But here are some even crazier facts.
Despite being first on the team in steals per minute, second in rebounds per minute, second in fewest turnovers per minute, and third in drawing the most fouls per minute, she ranks dead last in playing time for Oregon’s 11 rotational players.
Hopefully, that will change. It must change if Oregon wants to reach far into the NCAA tournament. If coach Graves doubles Ari’s minutes on the court, Oregon’s odds of reaching the NCAA tournament will escalate.
Disruptors are fascinating to watch.
Ari Long is an immoderate disruptor.
RECAP
I believe Oregon women’s basketball can reach the Sweet Sixteen if Phillipina Kyei recovers fully or Amina Muhammad becomes the star player she can be.
Oregon must have Deja Kelly, Peyton Scott, and Elisa Mevius in the lineup for success, and Mevius’s playing time must be upgraded to at least 23 minutes, like Kelly and Scott’s.
Ari Long’s playing time must be doubled, and if she is not a starter, she needs to enter the game in the first five minutes of each half rather than the last five minutes of each half.
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