For generations of college football fans across the state of Oregon, the Friday after Thanksgiving in November is reserved for one thing and one thing only. The bitterly fought, always intense, and appropriately named “Civil War” game. This event splits friends, siblings, couples, workplaces, and just about any relationship where college football may come into play. While, of course, there are those Oregonians who venture outside of state limits for their collegiate exploits, a vast majority choose between two paths. The University of Oregon or Oregon State University. Corvallis or Eugene. Ducks or Beavers. And nothing is more exemplary of that historic and highly enjoyable divide than the Civil War.
An unfortunate result of the dissolution of the old Pac-12 and inevitable scheduling changes for both schools is that this game is taking place on September 14th this year, an adjustment that will have to be endured until they share a conference once again. So, instead of serving as a final test for both teams before bowl/playoff season, the Civil War game this year will be a test of early season durability and could strongly inform both programs’ trajectory. Oregon is coming off of another incredibly shaking outing, this time a 37-34 win over a very competitive Boise State team that required a game-winning field goal as time expired. They only dropped to ninth in national rankings, but with two close victories over Mountain West and Big Sky teams, the danger of falling out of the top 25 after another loss is highly likely. Oregon State’s defense shone in a 21-0 shutout of San Diego State that lacked some offensive progress fans hoped for yet still kept their season undefeated.
The number one focus for the Oregon offense should be establishing consistency and quality play on their offensive line, a unit that has struggled immensely over the past two contests and who will face a rock-solid Oregon State pass rush. During their game versus Boise State, the team used four different rotations of players and shifted those 11 times, showing they are still in a clear testing period and have yet to settle on a clear OL lineup (via OregonLive). The biggest discovery by the game’s end might have been who the starting center should be, with Charlie Pickard (who spent the most time at the position in week 1) being replaced at halftime with Iapani Lalolou. With Lalolou under center for the remainder of the game, Oregon’s offense, and specifically Dillon Gabriel, looked more comfortable and better able to move down the field. A key piece to this puzzle could be the transfer of senior Matthew Bedford, who was projected as the starter at right guard in the preseason. It looks like he should return from injury this Saturday. He’s been out since mid-August but was in practice this week, and when asked, Dan Lanning said, “I’m confident he could” play (via Yahoo Sports).
On the defensive side, Oregon needs to make every tweak possible so that a repeat of last week’s performance does not repeat itself. Boise State running back and Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty absolutely eviscerated the Ducks run defense, accumulating 192 yards on the ground and 3 rushing touchdowns, keeping the Broncos in the game deep into the fourth. While Oregon State does not have a single running back with the star profile of Jeanty, they have a combination that has torn up the first two weeks of the season. Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson, acquired in the spring transfer portal, have together run for 475 yards and six touchdowns and taken turns looking explosive and hungry in OSU’s offense. On the other hand, their passing game continued to look shaky, as quarterback Gevani McCoy only threw for a single touchdown and acted as more of a game manager. While his status is still up in the air, Oregon State fans are hoping incoming Michigan wide receiver Darrius Clemons will be active after mysteriously missing Weeks one and two. However, even with this addition, OSU’s wide receiver corps will have their work cut out for them against Oregon’s excellent secondary.
ESPN currently has the line for this game at ORE -16, which has dropped a good amount over the past week but is not as low as some expected. The fact that it is taking place at Reser Stadium in Corvallis with a Beaver-heavy home crowd should bolster Oregon State. Still, coming off of two unconvincing victories, the boys in green and yellow could be extra motivated to make a statement on the road. While there has been much talk of upset, logic seems to favor a close Ducks win in a game that is back and forth and ultimately decided by fourth-quarter execution.
Prediction: Oregon W, 31-24
