Don’t you love this time of year when we speculate about the coming fortunes of our college football favorites?
With 31 head coaching changes and a transfer portal that spirals out of control, it might seem impossible to predict the coming season. Although people keep moving, the foundations of my prediction system (savvygameline.com) remain the same and should lead us to some good assessments for the coming season.
I will focus on what I have come to call “The Northwest Four”—or NW4—which includes Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State.
To get things started, let’s examine each team’s coaching staff, discuss newly hired coaches, and give grades for each.
Washington Huskies
Coaching change grade: A
Ranking among 31 new hires: 6th
Jedd Fisch did an excellent job at Arizona, taking one of the worst programs in America to the top 25 rankings in just three seasons. But can he replace the phenomenal success of former coach Kalen DeBoer? In short: Can de-Fisch replace DeBoer.
My system gives Washington an “A” grade for hiring Jedd Fisch but hedges on expectations for the Huskies to return to the national title game. At this time, a top-10 finish seems probable.
Fisch received high grades because he successfully retained Brennan Carroll (son of Pete Carroll) as his offensive coordinator, and he enticed Stephen Belchick (son of Bill Belchick) to Seattle to be his defensive coordinator.
All three have extensive NFL experience, which often translates well to college games.
Not all coaches who transition from the professional ranks to college programs are successful, as we saw recently with Herm Edwards at ASU. Edwards’ tenure at ASU went precisely as my Savvy system predicted. He started fast and finished in a smoking tailspin, the debris still smoldering in Phoenix.
However, these three in Washington have proven records that will keep the Huskies strong in 2024.
Long term, the question I have for the Huskies is how the program will do after athletic director Troy Dannen departed. Dannen told Husky fans that U.W. was his last stop. Five months later, he left for Nebraska and was replaced by Pat Chun, whose entire A.D. experience has been at Florida Atlantic and Washington State.
Oregon State
Coaching change grade: C-
Ranking among 31 new hires: 21st
It might seem difficult to predict the success of a new head coach with no experience.
However, we can access clues, and one of those is the assessment of who he hires as coordinators.
OSU’s new head coach, Trent Bray, was elevated from defensive coordinator, but his head coaching experience consists of a few weeks as interim head coach at Nebraska, during which time he did not coach any games.
Bray has brought Ryan Gunderson to Oregon State to be his offensive coordinator, which is a concern because Gunderson has no experience at that position, and, as a position coach, he has only coached quarterbacks.
Regarding defensive coordinators, Bray hit a home run by hiring Keith Heyward, whose metrics in my system are off the charts. The Beaver defense will be as inspiring in the 2024 season as in the 2024 Spring Showcase.
If rating Oregon State’s new coaches were only a matter of rating Bray and Gunderson, the grade would be, at best, a “D.”
When you put Heyward into the group, the grade rises to a solid “C.”
One of the biggest problems for the OSU offense is the loss of Jim Michalczik, the miracle-working offensive line coach who accompanied former coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State.
There may not be a critical drop in line effectiveness because Kyle Devan has come from the NFL to Corvallis, and he has plenty of successful experience and a tireless work ethic.
If the offense develops better than expected, the Beavers should get to seven wins and a bowl game.
I noticed that some football commentators criticized Bray’s handling of the Spring game and suggested it wasn’t flashy enough to excite fans and didn’t compare to down-state rival Oregon.
Although those commentators are the experts, I find myself looking for evidence that Oregon State has ever tried to out-glitz Oregon at anything. For that matter, is there anyone anywhere who would even try?
I’m not sure that the sideshows of Spring games are important. Yes, you may be able to draw fans, but Bray is a new coach in a tumultuous situation, so perhaps the last thing his players need is more distraction.
It reminds me of the megachurch worship leader accompanied by a fog machine, laser rays, and disco balls while admonishing his congregants to focus on Jesus.
Washington State
No coaching changes
Grade for current staff: C –
Washington State’s Jake Dickert returns for his third year as head coach. He has retained both coordinators from last season despite the Cougars losing seven of their previous eight games.
His record in that time is 15-16.
Losing seven of the last eight is bad enough, but perhaps more concerning is that he has won fewer conference games in each of his three seasons as H.C.
Those factors push his grade to “C-” and add a clockwise turn of the hot seat knob.
What may bail Dickert out in 2024 is an easier schedule, with six of his 11 opponents having coaching changes and half of those rating below average.
In other words, although he’s taken some knocks, he can still say, “Yeah, but you should see the other guy.”
Dickert may be vulnerable now that athletic director Patrick Chun has departed. Chun promoted Dickert to head coach and supported him throughout the past three seasons.
Will a new athletic director do the same?
Oregon
No coaching changes
Grade for current staff: A +
In the modern era of college football, the Ducks have always had the talent, but they haven’t always had the coaches.
Dan Lanning has solved that problem, and Oregon is a strong challenger in the national championship.
When Lanning was hired by Oregon two years ago, his credentials were rated an “A” grade in my system, even though he had never been a head coach. That rating was validated when he hired Kenny Dillingham from Florida State as his offensive coordinator and Tosh Lupoi for the defense, and the Ducks finished 10-3.
I said at the time of his hiring that Tosh Lupoi was probably the most effective defensive coordinator in the game.
When Dillingham left for Arizona State, Lanning hired Will Stein from UTSA. I had been following Stein’s offense at UTSA and concluded that his system, as is Stein’s clever manipulation, is simply unstoppable. That system attracts quarterbacks like a silver lure draws fish on a sunny day.
Lanning may not yet be the best head coach in America, but he has the best coordinators, and they are the strongest coaching staff in American college football.
The schedule this year is filled with landmines (at Ohio State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and at home vs. Washington), but Oregon has the talent and the coaches to contend with all of them.
Evaluating other northwest coaching changes:
Jonathan Smith
From: Oregon State
To: Michigan State
Coaching change grade: A
Ranking among 31 new hires: 4th
Jonathan Smith is an “A” level coach, and he brought his offensive line coach, offensive coordinator, and dynamic quarterback {Aiden Chiles) with him to East Lansing. Those factors make this a strong “A” grade and the fourth-best coaching change in Division 1.
Smith hired Joe Rossi as his defensive coordinator. While not a spectacular hire, Rossi is solid and knows Big Ten offenses and the recruiting geography well.
Kalen DeBoer
From: Washington
To: Alabama
Coaching change grade: B
Ranking among 31 new hires: 16th
Since I recently wrote about this coaching change, I won’t include details here other than to summarize DeBoer as an “A” coach who has had difficulty finding coordinators.
Nationally
Boston College made the best off-season coaching move by hiring Bill O’Brien and his staff. That was one of three coaching changes for which my Savvy system gave “A+” grades.
The other two were Houston, with its hiring of Willie Fritz from Tulane, and, in a great surprise to me, Georgia State, with its panicked hiring of Del McGee and the amazing job he did filling his staff.
Syracuse was the worst hire in America, and it is the only program rated below “D.” The Orangemen really need to review the erosion of their athletic programs since 2016 under A.D. John Wildhack.
Another program that started above Syracuse but is declining and may soon be graded as an “F” in Nevada. The head coach and defensive coordinator combined for one year of experience at their positions, and offensive coordinator Matt Lubick has been so ill that he had to Zoom-coach the Spring game from the hospital.
