It is too early in the Seattle Kraken’s 2024-25 campaign to make any dramatic proclamations, but early returns suggest that some of the culprits behind the team’s downfall last season are once again threatening to derail the trek toward a playoff berth.
The Edmonton Oilers proved just last year that a slow start over the first month by no means represents a death sentence, but the Kraken aren’t exactly loaded with the same level of talent as the 2023 Stanley Cup finalists.
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Seattle has its sights set a bit lower than a championship run, but it will have to dig its way out of this early hole first. The team started the season with two wins and four points through the first four games and currently sits outside the Western Conference playoff picture.
The offense has scored 3.25 goals per game thus far, sitting around the middle of the pack. It’s a rate that benefited from a 7-3 demolition of the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night (Oct. 15) but one which sat at a meager two goals per game prior to that outburst.
That’s the surface-level analysis out of the way, so let’s dive into four key takeaways from the Kraken’s first four games of the new campaign.
Kraken’s Goaltending Tandem Once Again a Mixed Bag
Joey Daccord recently signed a five-year contract extension worth $5 million annually (AAV) that will come into effect next season. The 28-year-old journeyman was rewarded for his breakout performance during the 2023-24 season when he owned a record of 19-18-11 over 50 games, posted a 2.46 goals-against average (GAA), a .916 save percentage (SV%), and saved more than 16 goals above expected (GSAx). All three marks ranked within the top half of all qualified goalies last season (minimum ten games played), so it’s not a surprise to see the organization commit to him long-term, small sample size and all.
The other member of the Kraken’s veteran tandem is 32-year-old Philipp Grubauer, now in his fourth year as an original member of the Kraken. Injuries and inconsistency plagued the German netminder last season and limited him to only 36 games. He put up a below-average SV% (.899) and allowed more goals than expected for the second time in three seasons. The Kraken have received a suboptimal return on their sizable investment as his $5.9 million AAV ranks ninth among active goalies.
The Kraken have devoted eight percent of this season’s cap to goaltending which ranks 11th among all organizations. That proportion should jump in 2025-26, assuming both Daccord and Grubauer remain on the roster due to the former’s raise and the latter’s contract still being on the books through the 2026-27 campaign. For that level of investment, one would hope to be receiving a better return.
Daccord and Grubauer have split starts in the first four games, with the former undefeated in his appearances while the latter is currently winless. Small sample size aside, both netminders have individually struggled. Daccord is carrying a GAA of 3.37 and a SV% of .901 while having allowed 1.43 goals more than expected. Grubauer isn’t faring much better, with a .896 SV% being paired with a 2.59 GAA, conceding 0.13 goals above expected.
Goalie performance is one of the most influential variables in a team’s on-ice success, so dedicating a greater proportion of cap space to the position is a defensible decision. What deserves greater scrutiny is the netminders being committed to, many of whom do not warrant such an investment. Will the Kraken’s goalies collectively buck the trend, or will difficult decisions have to be made regarding the future of the crease?
Kraken Continue to Defend Well at Five-on-Five
For all of the hand-wringing about the goalies and the 2-2-0 start, one would think that the Kraken have been porous on the defensive end. Rather, it’s the complete opposite and has been for a while. The Kraken have historically been a stingy defensive unit at the team level during their existence, ranking fifth or better in the aforementioned categories cumulatively over the past three seasons.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Seattle currently sits in the top five of the NHL by expected goals (xGA), scoring chances (SCA), and high-danger chances (HDCA) against per-60-minutes at five-on-five. They are average when it comes to the amount of shots faced (SA) which makes it seem that new head coach Dave Bylsma is focusing on quality over quantity in the early going.
Opposing teams have compiled about six expected goals against the Kraken at five-on-five this season but have scored nine actual goals, a wide disparity in expected versus actual performance that comes down to the play in the crease.
The goaltending hasn’t quite matched up apart from Daccord’s emergence last season, but Bylsma and company are focused on maintaining and fortifying the scheme around their netminders.
Offseason Additions Have Failed to Ignite Kraken Attack
After scoring a franchise single-season record of 289 goals in 2022-23, the Kraken took a significant step back with only 217 tallies in 2023-24 – a 25% reduction in offense. Jared McCann led the team with 29 goals and 62 points, two of the lowest team-leading totals in the league.
In response, the front office waved goodbye to a few underachieving skaters and inked Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour to hefty long-term contracts in free agency.
Stephenson scored a career-high 65 points in 81 games during the 2022-23 season, a season in which he also tallied 20 points in 22 playoff games as his Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup. His output dropped to 51 points in 75 games in 2023-24, but the team was still intrigued by his play style.
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Montour scored 16 goals and 73 points in 80 games during the 2022-23 season but also saw his numbers slashed across the board with only eight goals and 33 points in 66 games last season.
After Tuesday’s game, the Kraken have only gotten four total points in four games from the pair (two assists each) despite them being the second-highest paid forward and defenseman on the team respectively.
A pessimist would see those signings and believe that the Kraken shackled themselves to a pair of players whose best years are behind them. An optimist may agree but would also make the argument that both players are upgrades on what the team was running out last season, future performance nonetheless. Count me as sitting somewhere in the middle of that divide.
Kraken Special Teams Struggling Out of the Gate
While the Kraken have kept teams to the outside at five-on-five, their performance on special teams leaves much to be desired. Both their powerplay (11.1%) and penalty-kill (77.8%) efficiency sit in the bottom half league-wide, and neither ranking is due to poor shooting luck.
The Kraken have fired an above-average rate of shots on goal with the man advantage, but the quality of those attempts does not match up. When a lack of top-level shooting talent is combined with an inability to create dangerous chances, a poor power play suddenly makes sense.
In contrast, the penalty kill has struggled mightily in both departments. They sit last in xGA and second-last in SA per-60 and have left their goaltenders out to dry while shorthanded. These are numbers drawn from a very small sample size, which will normalize throughout the season, but the underlying process looks like it needs work in the early going.
Kraken Staring Down Another Mediocre Season
There’s a saying in the world of sports that there is nowhere worse to be as an organization than in the mushy middle of the competitive hierarchy. Those in the upper crust regularly compete for championships, while the residents in the basement at least have the potential of a high draft pick and generational talent to cling to during a rebuilding period.
Nothing good comes of occupying the space in between, yet the Kraken are dangerously close to becoming permanent residents of this frustrating purgatory.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, the NHL.
