Following a relatively muted offseason, the Seattle Kraken opened their 2023-24 campaign with a 4-1 loss at the hands of the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights. It’s a tough start to the new season, but one that could teach the Kraken many important lessons as they embark on their quest for the Cup.
They’ve only played a single game out of 82, so I think it’s still an appropriate time to toss out several predictions for the season ahead. This is the third time that I’ve completed this exercise, with my predictions for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons reaping various levels of success.
After a season in which the Kraken qualified for the postseason, hit 100 points in the standings, and won a playoff round – all for the first time in the franchise’s brief history – what can we expect in Year Three? Let’s dive in.
Prediction #1: Philipp Grubauer Returns to Vezina-Caliber Form
This is the third season running that I am making a goaltender-related prediction and the second in a row that I’ve pegged Grubauer to return to the level that saw him earn a Vezina Trophy finalist nod for the 2020-21 campaign.
After finishing as the league’s worst netminder by goals saved above expected (GSAx) in 2021-22, Grubauer posted similar numbers in the save percentage (SV%) and goals-against average (GAA) department but posted marked improvements in the GSAx category.
The Kraken once again figure to be a strong defensive outfit at 5-on-5 as they rank fifth in expected goals and scoring chances against per-60 over their two years of existence. For a netminder hoping to resurrect his numbers, that type of environment is a godsend.
Unfortunately, the traditional goaltending metrics of SV%, GAA, and wins reign supreme in Vezina discourse. Among the 96 netminders to have played in at least 10 games over the past two seasons, Grubauer ranks 81st in SV% (.891), 49th in GAA (3.04), and 27th in wins (35).
With the untested Joey Daccord acting as the Kraken’s backup option entering the 2023-24 season, Grubauer should have the reins all year long. He will have every opportunity to make a strong (third?) impression on the Kraken faithful. As he goes, so do the Kraken.
Prediction #2: The Kraken Win 50 Games
Given that the Kraken only managed to tally 27 wins and 60 points in their inaugural season, you would be forgiven for only expecting an incremental improvement – if any – in Year 2 of the Seattle project.
Instead, the second-year franchise shook up the Pacific Division hierarchy by winning 46 games and accruing 100 points on their way to a wildcard spot. That jump represented the greatest single-season improvement by an expansion team in their second season and was unexpected, to say the least.
Related: Seattle Kraken 2022-2023 Season Review – A Step Towards The Stanley Cup
Tacking on an additional four wins seems well within the realm of possibility, as the Kraken should have the services of forwards Andre Burakovsky (who missed 33 games) and Eeli Tolvanen (more on him later) for the majority of the season. Mix in the offseason acquisitions of winger Kailer Yamamoto and defenseman Brian Dumoulin and their short-term outlook looks even rosier.
Of course, there are a few caveats. Bottom-six scorer extraordinaire Daniel Sprong cashed in on a more lucrative free-agent deal with the Detroit Red Wings, and it’s unlikely that the Kraken maintain their 11.6% team shooting percentage (second-best in the NHL) throughout the 2023-24 campaign.
I’m betting on the organization’s offseason work bearing fruit, but at least some form of regression should be expected.
Prediction #3: Eeli Tolvanen Scores 30 Goals
Plucked off of waivers after being set free by the Nashville Predators, 2017 first-round pick Tolvanen appeared to revitalize his playing career with the Kraken last season.
A meager total of two goals and four points in 13 games to start 2022-23 prompted the Predators’ actions, but the Kraken managed to help Tolvanen find his niche in a more comfortable environment which leveraged his skills and strengths. Compare his shot- and chance-rates splits from last season.
| Statistic (Per-60-Minutes at 5-on-5) | Nashville | Seattle |
| Shots | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Expected Goals | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Scoring Chances | 4.2 | 7.1 |
| High-Danger Chances | 1.4 | 3.1 |
As a result, the Finnish winger scored 16 goals and 27 points in 48 games after being slotted into the Kraken lineup. Those totals prorated to 27 goals and 46 points over a full 82-game season, and with Sprong and his powerplay time departing for a new locale, don’t be surprised if Tolvanen grabs the opportunity with both hands and clears the 30-goal benchmark.
Prediction #4: Shane Wright Plays the Entire Season in the AHL
Apart from the team’s mesmerizing run to a playoff spot, the short-term fate of center Shane Wright – selected fourth overall by the Kraken in 2022 – was easily the most notable storyline in 2022-23. Wildly inconsistent playing time in the NHL, difficulty acclimating to the new level of play, and the NHL-CHL junior agreement all combined to create a uniquely frustrating situation for both club and player.
All in all, Wright suited up for the Kraken (eight games), their AHL affiliate in the Coachella Valley Firebirds (32 regular-season and playoff games), the Windsor Spitfires of the OHL (24 regular-season and playoff games), and the Canadian World Junior team (seven games).
Wright averaged just over eight minutes a game for the Kraken in those eight games, which spanned three months of the NHL season. The highly-regarded prospect was relegated to practice duty but was mercifully released to the World Junior team after a brief stint in the AHL on an emergency assignment.
The still-19-year-old Wright accrued valuable professional experience towards the end of last season as the Firebirds reached the Calder Cup Final, with the young center tallying two goals and nine points over their playoff run.
A sorely needed compromise between the NHL, the AHL, and the OHL will see Wright be able to play in the minors despite not meeting the criteria set out in the agreement.
Given that he has yet to truly dominate at the professional level, it makes sense that the Kraken would be patient and give Wright the time and space to grow into his own. Unless he obliterates the AHL, it makes sense to keep him down for the entire year and mature both on and off the ice. Expect him to take on a leading role with Coachella Valley this season.
2023-24 Season Promises New Heights for the Kraken
The Kraken surprised the hockey world with a remarkable turnaround effort in their sophomore campaign, so expectations will justifiably be set even higher this time around.
Even so, it’s important to not lose sight of the strides that the organization has made in only three seasons. Fostering a competitive environment geared towards on-ice success over the long term is more important than chasing short-term highs and potentially mortgaging the future.
Whatever on- and off-ice developments the 2023-24 season brings to the city of Seattle, they’re sure to be entertaining.
