Here’s a ranked matchup that not too many people saw coming: No. 14 Oregon State vs. No. 21 Washington State.
The Beavers enter this game as three-point favorites despite playing this game on the road. The Cougs have won eight of the last nine games in this great PAC-12 rivalry, but this is a much better Oregon State team than we are used to seeing.
There are three major keys for Oregon State to win this game, and I think they can do it. Let’s jump into this rivalry game and how the Beavs can win.
Key #1: Keep Cam Ward under pressure and limited through the air
The Beavers enter this game with a stellar defense. And I mean stellar. They rank 11th in total yards allowed in all college football and allow an average of 11 points per game to their opponents. To put that into perspective, the national average is 27 points per game.
The issue is that they have to face Cam Ward. He has looked phenomenal, leading Washington State up to this point. He has the 15th-best QBR in college football; he’s thrown 9 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. The Beavers dropped from 11th to 51st in passing yards allowed. That number dips down to 98th when we look at completions.
The Beavers should apply pressure and get after Ward to make him uncomfortable. He has been sacked seven times already this season through three games, so there is an opportunity to get after him. Oregon State ranks 11th in the nation in sacks.
OSU head coach Jonathan Smith knows precisely how tough it is to defend against Ward:
“We play a tough quarterback, I think he’s playing at a high level. He’s played a lot in that scheme and can create and extend. They have explosive players on the outside. It’s a challenging scheme when you have a quarterback with that type of talent. He’s accurate, can get the ball out quickly, and change his arm angle. He’s elusive in extending the play. He’s not small; this guy is over 200 pounds, and he’s not easy to bring down. You throw all of that together, and it’s not easy to defend.”
Key #2: Pedal to the medal on the rushing attack
The Beavs have a two-headed monster in the backfield and limiting their touches and yards will be a huge key for this Washington State defense and maybe the toughest part of the game. Damien Martinez is the main man for the Beavers. He has been excellent this year, rushing for 351 yards on 40 carries. He currently averages 8.8 yards per carry. Just when you think you’ve seen enough of him, the Beavers can sub in Deshaun Fenwick, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
The Beavers’ rushing attack ranks 8th in yards per rush. The key to this game will be running off the clock and making the Cougs make every single possession count, and Oregon State has the advantage with the ball on the ground. Their run game is far better than their passing game, and they must capitalize as much as possible.
Key #3: Win the turnover battle
These two teams are incredibly similar, and the team that has more possessions could be the one to win it. Last year, this game was decided by time of possession. Oregon State had the ball for nine more minutes than Wazzu, leading to a 14-point victory.
So far, the nod goes to Washington State in the turnover department. They rank higher in both forced fumbles and interceptions. If they want to win out, the Oregon State defense will need to attack the ball and look for ways to get it back in the offense’s hands.
Prediction:
The Cougars won this battle for far too long. Now, the Beavers have a chance to make a streak of their own, and it starts this weekend.
Give me the Beavs winning a tight contest, 24-21.
